(AVA) Avista - Overview
Stock: Electricity, Natural Gas, Hydroelectric, Wind, Solar
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 5.04% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 6.46% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 3.77% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 129.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.70% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.83 |
| Alpha | 13.17 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.104 |
| Beta Downside | 0.150 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.74% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.23 |
Description: AVA Avista January 11, 2026
Avista Corporation (NYSE:AVA) is a regulated utility that serves roughly 422 k electric customers and 383 k natural-gas customers across eastern Washington, northern Idaho, parts of Oregon, and Juneau, Alaska, through its two operating segments-Avista Utilities and Alaska Electric Light & Power (AEL&P). The utility owns a diversified generation mix of hydroelectric (≈103 MW), diesel (≈108 MW), wind, solar and thermal assets, and also engages in wholesale electricity and gas trading, venture-fund, and real-estate investments.
Key operating metrics from the most recent filing (12/31/2024) show total regulated revenue of about $2.3 billion, with a regulated return on equity (ROE) historically in the high-7% to low-9% range. Capital expenditures for FY 2024 were projected at $1.2 billion, driven primarily by grid modernization, renewable-energy expansion, and compliance with evolving FERC and state climate-policy mandates. The company’s renewable-energy share has risen to roughly 15% of its generation portfolio, reflecting sector-wide pressure to decarbonize and the availability of federal tax incentives for wind and solar projects.
Given Avista’s exposure to regulated rates, its earnings are relatively insulated from short-term commodity swings, yet the firm remains sensitive to natural-gas price volatility in its wholesale trading book and to the credit quality of its large industrial customers. Analysts should monitor the Pacific Northwest’s hydro-capacity constraints, the Alaska utility’s diesel-fuel cost structure, and any state-level rate-case outcomes that could materially affect the firm’s regulated return targets. For a deeper dive into Avista’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, a quick look at ValueRay’s utility-sector toolkit can help surface the most material risk factors.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 189.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -3.26% < 20% (prev -9.11%; Δ 5.85% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 483.8m > Net Income 189.2m |
| Net Debt (3.15b) to EBITDA (639.1m): 4.92 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.91 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (81.3m) vs 12m ago 2.93% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 63.36% > 18% (prev 0.58%; Δ 6278 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 24.64% > 50% (prev 24.70%; Δ -0.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.38 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 639.1m / Interest Expense TTM 147.9m) |
Altman Z'' 1.10
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 665.0m - Total Current Liabilities 729.0m) / Total Assets 8.16b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 874.0m / Total Assets 8.16b) |
| C: 0.04 (EBIT TTM 352.8m / Avg Total Assets 7.97b) |
| D: 0.48 (Book Value of Equity 2.65b / Total Liabilities 5.52b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.10 = BB |
Beneish M -2.96
| DSRI: 1.24 (Receivables 193.0m/152.8m, Revenue 1.96b/1.92b) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 63.36% / 58.43%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.15 / AQ_t-1 0.15) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 1.96b / 1.92b) |
| TATA: -0.04 (NI 189.2m - CFO 483.8m) / TA 8.16b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.96 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AVA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.51%, over one month by +6.55%, over three months by +3.91% and over the past year by +18.86%.
Is AVA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AVA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 40.6 | -2.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 40.6 | -2.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 44.6 | 7.4% |
AVA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 14.7275
P/S = 1.7107
P/B = 1.2549
P/EG = 2.6774
Revenue TTM = 1.96b USD
EBIT TTM = 352.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 639.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.81b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 287.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.19b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.15b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 6.50b USD (3.36b + Debt 3.19b - CCE 44.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.38 (Ebit TTM 352.8m / Interest Expense TTM 147.9m)
EV/FCF = -285.6x (Enterprise Value 6.50b / FCF TTM -22.8m)
FCF Yield = -0.35% (FCF TTM -22.8m / Enterprise Value 6.50b)
FCF Margin = -1.16% (FCF TTM -22.8m / Revenue TTM 1.96b)
Net Margin = 9.63% (Net Income TTM 189.2m / Revenue TTM 1.96b)
Gross Margin = 63.36% ((Revenue TTM 1.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 719.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 71.46% (prev 68.37%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.80 (Enterprise Value 6.50b / Total Assets 8.16b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.19% (Interest Expense 38.0m / Debt 3.19b)
Taxrate = 6.45% (2.00m / 31.0m)
NOPAT = 330.0m (EBIT 352.8m * (1 - 6.45%))
Current Ratio = 0.91 (Total Current Assets 665.0m / Total Current Liabilities 729.0m)
Debt / Equity = 1.21 (Debt 3.19b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.65b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.92 (Net Debt 3.15b / EBITDA 639.1m)
Debt / FCF = -138.1 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 3.15b / FCF TTM -22.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.63b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.37% (Net Income 189.2m / Total Assets 8.16b)
RoE = 7.19% (Net Income TTM 189.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.63b)
RoCE = 6.49% (EBIT 352.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.63b + L.T.Debt 2.81b))
RoIC = 5.82% (NOPAT 330.0m / Invested Capital 5.67b)
WACC = 3.77% (E(3.36b)/V(6.55b) * Re(6.30%) + D(3.19b)/V(6.55b) * Rd(1.19%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 6.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.03%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -22.8m)
EPS Correlation: -14.51 | EPS CAGR: -45.59% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 21.84 | Revenue CAGR: -1.82% | SUE: -0.26 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.16 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.76 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+10.2% | Growth Revenue=+0.7%