(AX) Axos Financial - Overview
Stock: Banking, Deposits, Mortgages, Lending, Investments
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -14.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 |
| Alpha | 23.46 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.083 |
| Beta Downside | 1.139 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.92% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.77 |
Description: AX Axos Financial January 08, 2026
Axos Financial Inc. (NYSE: AX) is a U.S.-based bank that serves both consumers and businesses through two operating segments: Banking Business and Securities Business. Its banking arm offers a full suite of deposit products-checking, savings, and time-deposit accounts for individuals and firms-as well as a variety of loan solutions, including residential mortgages, multifamily and commercial real-estate financing, commercial-industrial loans, and auto/consumer loans. The securities segment provides investment-related services such as clearing, record-keeping, trade reporting, margin financing, securities lending, and corporate reorganization assistance.
Key recent metrics that shape Axos’s outlook include: (1) a net interest margin (NIM) of roughly 3.2% in Q4 2023, reflecting the benefit of a higher-for-longer Federal Funds rate environment; (2) loan growth of 9% year-over-year, driven primarily by residential mortgage originations, which remain sensitive to housing-market inventory constraints; and (3) a deposit base that expanded 7% YoY, outpacing the average growth rate of the Regional Bank sub-industry, suggesting strong customer acquisition in a low-interest-rate-savings environment. Macro-level drivers such as the Fed’s policy stance, housing affordability, and commercial-real-estate vacancy trends are therefore critical to Axos’s earnings volatility.
For a deeper dive into how these factors translate into valuation signals, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboards useful for uncovering hidden upside or downside risks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 456.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.12 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -993.3% < 20% (prev -897.1%; Δ -96.20% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 479.6m > Net Income 456.6m |
| Net Debt (-1.01b) to EBITDA (470.8m): -2.15 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.09 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.7m) vs 12m ago -2.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 72.25% > 18% (prev 0.60%; Δ 7165 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 7.51% > 50% (prev 8.19%; Δ -0.68% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.67 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 470.8m / Interest Expense TTM 676.3m) |
Altman Z'' -3.94
| A: -0.69 (Total Current Assets 1.82b - Total Current Liabilities 21.18b) / Total Assets 28.20b |
| B: 0.10 (Retained Earnings 2.86b / Total Assets 28.20b) |
| C: 0.02 (EBIT TTM 453.8m / Avg Total Assets 25.96b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 2.86b / Total Liabilities 25.27b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -3.94 = D |
Beneish M -3.20
| DSRI: 0.92 (Receivables 277.3m/298.9m, Revenue 1.95b/1.94b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 72.25% / 59.72%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.93 / AQ_t-1 0.87) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 1.95b / 1.94b) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 456.6m - CFO 479.6m) / TA 28.20b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.20 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of AX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.83%, over one month by +9.79%, over three months by +21.68% and over the past year by +35.94%.
Is AX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 109.5 | 11.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 109.5 | 11.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 117.6 | 19.7% |
AX Fundamental Data Overview February 01, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.5511
P/S = 4.6655
P/B = 1.9148
Revenue TTM = 1.95b USD
EBIT TTM = 453.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 470.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.12b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 987.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 372.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -1.01b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.16b USD (5.61b + Debt 372.7m - CCE 1.82b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.67 (Ebit TTM 453.8m / Interest Expense TTM 676.3m)
EV/FCF = 9.26x (Enterprise Value 4.16b / FCF TTM 449.2m)
FCF Yield = 10.79% (FCF TTM 449.2m / Enterprise Value 4.16b)
FCF Margin = 23.05% (FCF TTM 449.2m / Revenue TTM 1.95b)
Net Margin = 23.43% (Net Income TTM 456.6m / Revenue TTM 1.95b)
Gross Margin = 72.25% ((Revenue TTM 1.95b - Cost of Revenue TTM 540.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 100.0% (prev 61.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.15 (Enterprise Value 4.16b / Total Assets 28.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 48.87% (Interest Expense 182.1m / Debt 372.7m)
Taxrate = 26.84% (47.1m / 175.5m)
NOPAT = 332.0m (EBIT 453.8m * (1 - 26.84%))
Current Ratio = 0.09 (Total Current Assets 1.82b / Total Current Liabilities 21.18b)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 372.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.93b)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.15 (Net Debt -1.01b / EBITDA 470.8m)
Debt / FCF = -2.25 (Net Debt -1.01b / FCF TTM 449.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.75b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.76% (Net Income 456.6m / Total Assets 28.20b)
RoE = 16.59% (Net Income TTM 456.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.75b)
RoCE = 11.73% (EBIT 453.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.75b + L.T.Debt 1.12b))
RoIC = 9.29% (NOPAT 332.0m / Invested Capital 3.57b)
WACC = 11.52% (E(5.61b)/V(5.98b) * Re(9.91%) + D(372.7m)/V(5.98b) * Rd(48.87%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 9.91% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.49%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.69% ; FCFF base≈409.6m ; Y1≈505.2m ; Y5≈860.4m
Fair Price DCF = 166.4 (EV 8.42b - Net Debt -1.01b = Equity 9.43b / Shares 56.7m; r=11.52% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 83.50 | EPS CAGR: 23.49% | SUE: 0.45 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 89.06 | Revenue CAGR: 31.24% | SUE: 0.74 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.15 | Chg30d=+0.108 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-06-30): EPS=8.76 | Chg30d=+0.468 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+16.9% | Growth Revenue=+16.2%
EPS next Year (2027-06-30): EPS=9.85 | Chg30d=+0.612 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+12.4% | Growth Revenue=+10.4%