(AXTA) Axalta Coating Systems - Overview
Stock: Automotive, Industrial, Powder, Liquid, Refinish, OEM
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 27.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.54% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.35 |
| Alpha | -26.40 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.017 |
| Beta Downside | 0.918 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.09% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.14 |
Description: AXTA Axalta Coating Systems January 08, 2026
Axalta Coating Systems Ltd. (NYSE: AXTA) manufactures and distributes high-performance coating systems across five continents, serving both the automotive aftermarket (body-shop repair, OEM dealer shops) and industrial markets (building materials, furniture, transportation). The business is split into two segments: Performance Coatings (industrial & decorative applications) and Mobility Coatings (OEM and aftermarket automotive finishes).
Key financial snapshot (FY 2023): revenue of $5.0 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin of 7.2 %, and free cash flow of $340 million. The company’s earnings are sensitive to automotive production volumes (≈ 45 % of total sales) and to raw-material price volatility in pigments and solvents, which have risen ~ 12 % YoY due to higher energy costs.
Sector drivers that directly affect Axalta include the global light-vehicle production outlook (projected CAGR ≈ 3 % through 2028) and the ongoing shift toward water-borne and low-VOC coatings driven by stricter environmental regulations in Europe and North America. Additionally, the industrial coating market benefits from the “green-building” trend, where demand for durable, low-emission finishes is expanding at an estimated 4 % annual rate.
Axalta’s diversified brand portfolio-Imron, Standox, Centari, and others-provides cross-sell opportunities, but the firm remains exposed to cyclical automotive demand; a sustained decline in vehicle sales would pressure the Mobility segment more than the Performance segment.
For a data-rich, independent valuation of AXTA that incorporates these dynamics, you may find ValueRay’s analyst tools useful for deeper due-diligence.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 455.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.50 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 31.57% < 20% (prev 26.91%; Δ 4.66% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 539.0m > Net Income 455.0m |
| Net Debt (2.79b) to EBITDA (1.04b): 2.69 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.20 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (215.9m) vs 12m ago -2.26% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.11% > 18% (prev 0.34%; Δ 3377 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 67.71% > 50% (prev 70.16%; Δ -2.46% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.13 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.04b / Interest Expense TTM 181.0m) |
Altman Z'' 3.24
| A: 0.21 (Total Current Assets 2.99b - Total Current Liabilities 1.36b) / Total Assets 7.76b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 2.00b / Total Assets 7.76b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 747.0m / Avg Total Assets 7.63b) |
| D: 0.34 (Book Value of Equity 1.87b / Total Liabilities 5.43b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.24 = A |
Beneish M -2.99
| DSRI: 1.10 (Receivables 1.41b/1.30b, Revenue 5.17b/5.26b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 34.11% / 33.72%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.45 / AQ_t-1 0.46) |
| SGI: 0.98 (Revenue 5.17b / 5.26b) |
| TATA: -0.01 (NI 455.0m - CFO 539.0m) / TA 7.76b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.99 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of AXTA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.68%, over one month by +2.61%, over three months by +19.77% and over the past year by -11.14%.
Is AXTA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 9
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the AXTA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 36.7 | 8.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 36.7 | 8.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 34.1 | 0.9% |
AXTA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.4069
P/S = 1.3868
P/B = 3.1922
P/EG = 2.02
Revenue TTM = 5.17b USD
EBIT TTM = 747.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.04b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.38b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 20.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.79b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 9.96b USD (7.16b + Debt 3.40b - CCE 610.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.13 (Ebit TTM 747.0m / Interest Expense TTM 181.0m)
EV/FCF = 29.37x (Enterprise Value 9.96b / FCF TTM 339.0m)
FCF Yield = 3.40% (FCF TTM 339.0m / Enterprise Value 9.96b)
FCF Margin = 6.56% (FCF TTM 339.0m / Revenue TTM 5.17b)
Net Margin = 8.81% (Net Income TTM 455.0m / Revenue TTM 5.17b)
Gross Margin = 34.11% ((Revenue TTM 5.17b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.40b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.00% (prev 35.02%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.28 (Enterprise Value 9.96b / Total Assets 7.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.32% (Interest Expense 45.0m / Debt 3.40b)
Taxrate = 29.03% (45.0m / 155.0m)
NOPAT = 530.1m (EBIT 747.0m * (1 - 29.03%))
Current Ratio = 2.20 (Total Current Assets 2.99b / Total Current Liabilities 1.36b)
Debt / Equity = 1.49 (Debt 3.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.69 (Net Debt 2.79b / EBITDA 1.04b)
Debt / FCF = 8.24 (Net Debt 2.79b / FCF TTM 339.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.13b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.96% (Net Income 455.0m / Total Assets 7.76b)
RoE = 21.33% (Net Income TTM 455.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.13b)
RoCE = 13.54% (EBIT 747.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.13b + L.T.Debt 3.38b))
RoIC = 9.56% (NOPAT 530.1m / Invested Capital 5.55b)
WACC = 6.85% (E(7.16b)/V(10.57b) * Re(9.66%) + D(3.40b)/V(10.57b) * Rd(1.32%) * (1-Tc(0.29)))
Discount Rate = 9.66% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.14%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.60% ; FCFF base≈409.6m ; Y1≈413.7m ; Y5≈447.0m
Fair Price DCF = 34.33 (EV 10.12b - Net Debt 2.79b = Equity 7.32b / Shares 213.3m; r=6.85% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.65% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 19.93 | EPS CAGR: -42.65% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 73.51 | Revenue CAGR: 3.38% | SUE: -1.14 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.59 | Chg30d=-0.021 | Revisions Net=-5 | Analysts=11
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.67 | Chg30d=-0.073 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+7.1% | Growth Revenue=+1.9%