(BBAI) BigBearai Holdings - Overview
Stock: AI Analytics, Defense Intelligence, Supply Chain, Biometrics
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 111% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.21 |
| Alpha | -65.07 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.370 |
| Beta Downside | 1.367 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 75.56% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.01 |
Description: BBAI BigBearai Holdings January 13, 2026
BigBear.ai Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:BBAI) delivers AI-driven decision-intelligence platforms that combine data ingestion, enrichment, processing, and advanced analytics to serve a broad client base that includes U.S. defense and intelligence agencies, border protection, transportation security, and commercial sectors such as manufacturing, logistics, travel, entertainment, and tourism. Founded in 1988 and headquartered in McLean, Virginia, the firm positions itself within the Internet Services & Infrastructure sub-industry.
Key operational metrics that investors watch include a 23% year-over-year revenue increase in FY 2024 driven largely by new multi-year contracts with the Department of Defense, a contract backlog of roughly $210 million (≈ 30% of annual revenue), and a gross margin expansion to 48% as the company scales its AI model licensing. Macro-level drivers include the U.S. defense budget’s projected 3.5% annual rise (particularly in AI and autonomous systems) and a broader corporate push for supply-chain resiliency, which together underpin demand for BigBear.ai’s predictive-analytics solutions.
For a deeper dive into BBAI’s valuation and risk profile, you might explore the ValueRay platform.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.5
| Net Income: -434.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 292.5% < 20% (prev 34.59%; Δ 258.0% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 > 3% & CFO -34.9m > Net Income -434.6m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 3.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (448.2m) vs 12m ago 79.30% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.28% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2701 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 22.64% > 50% (prev 43.77%; Δ -21.13% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -9.58 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -231.2m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m) |
Altman Z'' -5.90
| A: 0.46 (Total Current Assets 619.8m - Total Current Liabilities 197.9m) / Total Assets 919.8m |
| B: -0.93 (Retained Earnings -859.7m / Total Assets 919.8m) |
| C: -0.44 (EBIT TTM -279.2m / Avg Total Assets 636.9m) |
| D: -2.78 (Book Value of Equity -859.9m / Total Liabilities 309.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -5.90 = D |
Beneish M -3.99
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 26.6m/34.4m, Revenue 144.2m/155.0m) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 27.28% / 26.99%) |
| AQI: 0.47 (AQ_t 0.32 / AQ_t-1 0.67) |
| SGI: 0.93 (Revenue 144.2m / 155.0m) |
| TATA: -0.43 (NI -434.6m - CFO -34.9m) / TA 919.8m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.99 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of BBAI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.35%, over one month by -26.37%, over three months by -16.61% and over the past year by -30.28%.
Is BBAI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BBAI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6.7 | 41.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6.7 | 41.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.6 | -2.5% |
BBAI Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/B = 4.1434
Revenue TTM = 144.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -279.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -231.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 104.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.07m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 112.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -343.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.83b USD (2.31b + Debt 112.9m - CCE 586.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -9.58 (Ebit TTM -279.2m / Interest Expense TTM 29.1m)
EV/FCF = -46.77x (Enterprise Value 1.83b / FCF TTM -39.2m)
FCF Yield = -2.14% (FCF TTM -39.2m / Enterprise Value 1.83b)
FCF Margin = -27.20% (FCF TTM -39.2m / Revenue TTM 144.2m)
Net Margin = -301.4% (Net Income TTM -434.6m / Revenue TTM 144.2m)
Gross Margin = 27.28% ((Revenue TTM 144.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 104.9m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.41% (prev 24.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.99 (Enterprise Value 1.83b / Total Assets 919.8m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.08% (Interest Expense 4.60m / Debt 112.9m)
Taxrate = 0.67% (17.0k / 2.54m)
NOPAT = -277.4m (EBIT -279.2m * (1 - 0.67%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.13 (Total Current Assets 619.8m / Total Current Liabilities 197.9m)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 112.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 610.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.49 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -343.7m / EBITDA -231.2m)
Debt / FCF = 8.76 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -343.7m / FCF TTM -39.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 267.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -68.23% (Net Income -434.6m / Total Assets 919.8m)
RoE = -162.4% (Net Income TTM -434.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 267.7m)
RoCE = -74.96% (EBIT -279.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 267.7m + L.T.Debt 104.9m))
RoIC = -73.17% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -277.4m / Invested Capital 379.0m)
WACC = 14.16% (E(2.31b)/V(2.42b) * Re(14.65%) + D(112.9m)/V(2.42b) * Rd(4.08%) * (1-Tc(0.01)))
Discount Rate = 14.65% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 69.05%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -39.2m)
EPS Correlation: -0.80 | EPS CAGR: 5.90% | SUE: 0.30 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -15.76 | Revenue CAGR: -0.27% | SUE: 0.31 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.07 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.25 | Chg30d=+0.070 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+73.0% | Growth Revenue=+22.9%