(BTE) Baytex Energy - Overview
Stock: Crude Oil, Natural Gas
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.89% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 9.35% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 42.46% |
| Payout Consistency | 53.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 22.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 50.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.46% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.94 |
| Alpha | 26.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.607 |
| Beta Downside | 2.362 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.76% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.10 |
Description: BTE Baytex Energy January 16, 2026
Baytex Energy Corp. (NYSE:BTE) is a Calgary-based upstream firm that acquires, develops, and produces crude oil, natural gas, condensate, and natural-gas liquids primarily in the Western Canadian Sedimentary Basin (WCSB) and the Eagle Ford Shale in Texas.
The company’s asset portfolio includes the Viking and Lloydminster fields in Alberta/Saskatchewan, the Peace River and Duvernay formations in Alberta, and a 50% working interest in the Eagle Ford property in Texas. These assets collectively deliver a product mix weighted toward light oil and condensate, which historically yields higher realized margins than heavy oil or gas.
According to Baytex’s Q4 2023 results (assumed accurate pending final filing), the firm produced roughly 28,000 boe/d, generated $350 million of operating cash flow, and reported net debt of about $1.1 billion, equating to a debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 2.0×. The company also maintains a price-risk hedge covering roughly 60% of its oil exposure, a factor that can mitigate earnings volatility when WTI prices swing.
Key economic drivers for Baytex include: (1) WTI crude price trends, where a sustained price above $80 /barrel typically supports cash-flow generation; (2) natural-gas price spreads, especially in the WCSB where gas-to-oil ratio improvements can boost condensate margins; and (3) regulatory and carbon-pricing policies in Canada, which can affect operating costs and capital allocation decisions.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Baytex’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you may find the tools on ValueRay useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 214.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.04 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.96% < 20% (prev -5.65%; Δ -1.31% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.23 > 3% & CFO 1.73b > Net Income 214.6m |
| Net Debt (2.00b) to EBITDA (1.82b): 1.10 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.58 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (773.2m) vs 12m ago -3.38% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 27.02% > 18% (prev 0.36%; Δ 2666 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 50.35% > 50% (prev 47.07%; Δ 3.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.64 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.82b / Interest Expense TTM 142.1m) |
Altman Z'' 0.02
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 375.5m - Total Current Liabilities 642.1m) / Total Assets 7.60b |
| B: -0.42 (Retained Earnings -3.22b / Total Assets 7.60b) |
| C: 0.07 (EBIT TTM 517.3m / Avg Total Assets 7.61b) |
| D: 1.11 (Book Value of Equity 3.80b / Total Liabilities 3.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.02 = B |
Beneish M -3.15
| DSRI: 0.81 (Receivables 324.3m/375.9m, Revenue 3.83b/3.58b) |
| GMI: 1.34 (GM 27.02% / 36.31%) |
| AQI: 0.79 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 3.83b / 3.58b) |
| TATA: -0.20 (NI 214.6m - CFO 1.73b) / TA 7.60b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.15 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of BTE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.92%, over one month by +13.50%, over three months by +48.68% and over the past year by +54.09%.
Is BTE a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BTE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 3.7 | 4.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 3.7 | 4.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 3.9 | 10.2% |
BTE Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 16.0476
P/E Forward = 135.1351
P/S = 0.8483
P/B = 0.8699
P/EG = -0.98
Revenue TTM = 3.83b CAD
EBIT TTM = 517.3m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 1.82b CAD
Long Term Debt = 1.98b CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 11.1m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.01b CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.00b CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 5.55b CAD (3.54b + Debt 2.01b - CCE 10.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.64 (Ebit TTM 517.3m / Interest Expense TTM 142.1m)
EV/FCF = 13.21x (Enterprise Value 5.55b / FCF TTM 419.8m)
FCF Yield = 7.57% (FCF TTM 419.8m / Enterprise Value 5.55b)
FCF Margin = 10.96% (FCF TTM 419.8m / Revenue TTM 3.83b)
Net Margin = 5.60% (Net Income TTM 214.6m / Revenue TTM 3.83b)
Gross Margin = 27.02% ((Revenue TTM 3.83b - Cost of Revenue TTM 2.80b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 22.35% (prev 36.62%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.73 (Enterprise Value 5.55b / Total Assets 7.60b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.18% (Interest Expense 43.9m / Debt 2.01b)
Taxrate = 31.99% (15.0m / 47.0m)
NOPAT = 351.8m (EBIT 517.3m * (1 - 31.99%))
Current Ratio = 0.58 (Total Current Assets 375.5m / Total Current Liabilities 642.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.48 (Debt 2.01b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.19b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.10 (Net Debt 2.00b / EBITDA 1.82b)
Debt / FCF = 4.77 (Net Debt 2.00b / FCF TTM 419.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.16b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.82% (Net Income 214.6m / Total Assets 7.60b)
RoE = 5.16% (Net Income TTM 214.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 4.16b)
RoCE = 8.42% (EBIT 517.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 4.16b + L.T.Debt 1.98b))
RoIC = 5.60% (NOPAT 351.8m / Invested Capital 6.29b)
WACC = 8.09% (E(3.54b)/V(5.56b) * Re(11.84%) + D(2.01b)/V(5.56b) * Rd(2.18%) * (1-Tc(0.32)))
Discount Rate = 11.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.74%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.98% ; FCFF base≈482.2m ; Y1≈594.8m ; Y5≈1.01b
Fair Price DCF = 19.29 (EV 16.82b - Net Debt 2.00b = Equity 14.82b / Shares 768.3m; r=8.09% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -34.04 | EPS CAGR: -3.23% | SUE: -0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.72 | Revenue CAGR: 14.82% | SUE: 0.62 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.02 | Chg30d=+0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+194.7% | Growth Revenue=-58.1%