(BTU) Peabody Energy - Overview
Stock: Thermal Coal, Metallurgical Coal, Bituminous Coal, Sub-Bituminous Coal
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.70% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.38% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 15.47% |
| Payout Consistency | 54.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 38.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 53.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.43% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.58 |
| Alpha | 93.00 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.008 |
| Beta Downside | 1.522 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 65.14% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.21 |
Description: BTU Peabody Energy January 14, 2026
Peabody Energy Corp (NYSE:BTU) is the world’s largest privately-owned coal producer, operating across five segments: Seaborne Thermal, Seaborne Metallurgical, Powder River Basin, Other U.S. Thermal, and Corporate & Other. The firm extracts, prepares, and sells both thermal coal (low-sulfur, high-BTU) to power generators and metallurgical coal (hard, semi-hard, semi-soft coking, and PCI coal) to steelmakers, while also trading coal and freight contracts and offering transportation services. Its footprint spans the United States and key export markets in Asia, Europe, and Latin America.
Key recent metrics: 2023 revenue was $6.6 billion, with adjusted EBITDA of $1.1 billion, reflecting a 12 % margin improvement driven by higher spot coal prices and cost-saving initiatives in the Powder River Basin. The company’s cash flow is highly sensitive to global thermal-coal demand, which remains linked to electricity-generation mix transitions and regulatory pressure on carbon emissions. A primary sector driver is the ongoing shift toward renewable energy, which has compressed long-term thermal-coal demand forecasts by roughly 15 % over the next five years, while metallurgical-coal demand stays tied to steel-production cycles, especially in China and India.
For a deeper dive into BTU’s valuation and risk profile, consider reviewing the detailed analysis available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: -75.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -2.82 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 19.39% < 20% (prev 23.67%; Δ -4.28% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 775.1m > Net Income -75.2m |
| Net Debt (-233.2m) to EBITDA (378.8m): -0.62 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.99 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (121.6m) vs 12m ago -14.12% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 11.06% > 18% (prev 0.23%; Δ 1083 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 70.35% > 50% (prev 74.12%; Δ -3.77% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.75 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 378.8m / Interest Expense TTM 38.2m) |
Altman Z'' 2.40
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 1.59b - Total Current Liabilities 797.3m) / Total Assets 5.74b |
| B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 1.35b / Total Assets 5.74b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 67.0m / Avg Total Assets 5.81b) |
| D: 0.62 (Book Value of Equity 1.36b / Total Liabilities 2.20b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.40 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.11
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 307.2m/304.2m, Revenue 4.08b/4.35b) |
| GMI: 2.10 (GM 11.06% / 23.27%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.17 / AQ_t-1 0.16) |
| SGI: 0.94 (Revenue 4.08b / 4.35b) |
| TATA: -0.15 (NI -75.2m - CFO 775.1m) / TA 5.74b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.11 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
What is the price of BTU shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.71%, over one month by +14.41%, over three months by +24.53% and over the past year by +129.55%.
Is BTU a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the BTU price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.5 | -6.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.5 | -6.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 42.2 | 14.3% |
BTU Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 1.0821
P/B = 1.2411
Revenue TTM = 4.08b USD
EBIT TTM = 67.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 378.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 321.8m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 467.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -233.2m USD (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 3.40b USD (3.53b + Debt 467.2m - CCE 603.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.75 (Ebit TTM 67.0m / Interest Expense TTM 38.2m)
EV/FCF = 19.41x (Enterprise Value 3.40b / FCF TTM 175.1m)
FCF Yield = 5.15% (FCF TTM 175.1m / Enterprise Value 3.40b)
FCF Margin = 4.29% (FCF TTM 175.1m / Revenue TTM 4.08b)
Net Margin = -1.84% (Net Income TTM -75.2m / Revenue TTM 4.08b)
Gross Margin = 11.06% ((Revenue TTM 4.08b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.63b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.61% (prev 0.13%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.59 (Enterprise Value 3.40b / Total Assets 5.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.05% (Interest Expense 4.90m / Debt 467.2m)
Taxrate = 21.08% (108.8m / 516.1m)
NOPAT = 52.9m (EBIT 67.0m * (1 - 21.08%))
Current Ratio = 1.99 (Total Current Assets 1.59b / Total Current Liabilities 797.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.13 (Debt 467.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.54b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.62 (Net Debt -233.2m / EBITDA 378.8m)
Debt / FCF = -1.33 (Net Debt -233.2m / FCF TTM 175.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -1.30% (Net Income -75.2m / Total Assets 5.74b)
RoE = -2.09% (Net Income TTM -75.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.60b)
RoCE = 1.71% (EBIT 67.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.60b + L.T.Debt 321.8m))
RoIC = 1.33% (NOPAT 52.9m / Invested Capital 3.96b)
WACC = 8.60% (E(3.53b)/V(4.00b) * Re(9.63%) + D(467.2m)/V(4.00b) * Rd(1.05%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.63% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -9.11%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 67.52% ; FCFF base≈242.7m ; Y1≈159.3m ; Y5≈72.7m
Fair Price DCF = 12.49 (EV 1.29b - Net Debt -233.2m = Equity 1.52b / Shares 121.6m; r=8.60% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -48.02 | EPS CAGR: 94.29% | SUE: -0.16 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -29.00 | Revenue CAGR: -5.77% | SUE: 0.66 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-0.007 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.60 | Chg30d=+0.025 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+480.8% | Growth Revenue=+20.1%