(CCL) Carnival - Overview
Stock: Cruises, Destinations, Hotels, Railcars, Motorcoaches
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 43.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.80% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.60 |
| Alpha | 0.03 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.808 |
| Beta Downside | 1.871 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 42.85% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.06 |
Description: CCL Carnival January 28, 2026
Carnival Corporation & plc (NYSE: CCL) is the world’s largest cruise operator, delivering leisure travel across North America, Europe, Australia and other international markets. It runs four reporting segments-North America Cruise Operations, Europe Cruise Operations, Cruise Support, and Tour & Other-and markets its voyages through ten well-known brands, including Carnival Cruise Line, Princess, Holland America, Costa, AIDA, Cunard, P&O (UK & Australia), and Seabourn. The company also owns ancillary hospitality assets such as hotels, lodges, glass-domed railcars and motorcoaches, and sells cruises via travel agents, online platforms and onboard consultants. Founded in 1972, Carnival is headquartered in Miami, Florida.
Key recent metrics (FY 2025): revenue $26.5 billion, adjusted EBITDA margin 15.2 % and net debt-to-EBITDA 2.8×, reflecting a strong recovery from pandemic lows. Occupancy averaged 95 % in Q4 2025, while the average daily fare (ADF) rose to $1,260, driven by higher-margin premium cabins and robust demand in the U.S. and European markets. Sector-wide, discretionary consumer spending remains a primary driver; the U.S. Consumer Confidence Index has held above 110 for six consecutive months, supporting cruise bookings, while fuel price volatility (diesel at $3.85 / gal in Dec 2025) continues to pressure operating costs.
For a deeper quantitative dive, you might explore ValueRay’s analyst toolkit to benchmark Carnival’s valuation against peers.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 2.76b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.40 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -33.33% < 20% (prev -32.93%; Δ -0.40% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 10.92b > Net Income 2.76b |
| Net Debt (26.07b) to EBITDA (6.89b): 3.78 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.40b) vs 12m ago 0.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.37% > 18% (prev 0.37%; Δ 3699 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.85% > 50% (prev 51.01%; Δ 1.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.08 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 6.89b / Interest Expense TTM 1.33b) |
Altman Z'' -0.19
| A: -0.17 (Total Current Assets 4.22b - Total Current Liabilities 13.09b) / Total Assets 51.69b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 4.82b / Total Assets 51.69b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 4.10b / Avg Total Assets 50.37b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 3.38b / Total Liabilities 39.40b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.19 = B |
Beneish M -3.07
| DSRI: 1.08 (Receivables 678.0m/590.0m, Revenue 26.62b/25.02b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 37.37% / 37.50%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.05 / AQ_t-1 0.05) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 26.62b / 25.02b) |
| TATA: -0.16 (NI 2.76b - CFO 10.92b) / TA 51.69b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CCL shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.22%, over one month by +5.23%, over three months by +28.90% and over the past year by +23.87%.
Is CCL a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 17
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CCL price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 38 | 11.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 38 | 11.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 37.9 | 11.4% |
CCL Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.5471
P/S = 1.5588
P/B = 3.5053
P/EG = 1.41
Revenue TTM = 26.62b USD
EBIT TTM = 4.10b USD
EBITDA TTM = 6.89b USD
Long Term Debt = 24.04b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.78b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 27.99b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 26.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 67.56b USD (41.50b + Debt 27.99b - CCE 1.93b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.08 (Ebit TTM 4.10b / Interest Expense TTM 1.33b)
EV/FCF = 25.92x (Enterprise Value 67.56b / FCF TTM 2.61b)
FCF Yield = 3.86% (FCF TTM 2.61b / Enterprise Value 67.56b)
FCF Margin = 9.79% (FCF TTM 2.61b / Revenue TTM 26.62b)
Net Margin = 10.37% (Net Income TTM 2.76b / Revenue TTM 26.62b)
Gross Margin = 37.37% ((Revenue TTM 26.62b - Cost of Revenue TTM 16.67b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 26.75% (prev 46.22%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.31 (Enterprise Value 67.56b / Total Assets 51.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.13% (Interest Expense 315.0m / Debt 27.99b)
Taxrate = 0.43% (12.0m / 2.77b)
NOPAT = 4.08b (EBIT 4.10b * (1 - 0.43%))
Current Ratio = 0.32 (Total Current Assets 4.22b / Total Current Liabilities 13.09b)
Debt / Equity = 2.28 (Debt 27.99b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 12.28b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.78 (Net Debt 26.07b / EBITDA 6.89b)
Debt / FCF = 10.00 (Net Debt 26.07b / FCF TTM 2.61b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 10.85b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.48% (Net Income 2.76b / Total Assets 51.69b)
RoE = 25.45% (Net Income TTM 2.76b / Total Stockholder Equity 10.85b)
RoCE = 11.74% (EBIT 4.10b / Capital Employed (Equity 10.85b + L.T.Debt 24.04b))
RoIC = 10.82% (NOPAT 4.08b / Invested Capital 37.70b)
WACC = 7.96% (E(41.50b)/V(69.49b) * Re(12.58%) + D(27.99b)/V(69.49b) * Rd(1.13%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 12.58% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 5.40%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.39% ; FCFF base≈2.08b ; Y1≈1.37b ; Y5≈624.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 12.28b - Net Debt 26.07b = -13.78b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 80.47 | EPS CAGR: 176.7% | SUE: 2.70 | # QB: 5
Revenue Correlation: 79.44 | Revenue CAGR: 43.75% | SUE: -0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-05-31): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=+0.005 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-11-30): EPS=2.55 | Chg30d=+0.030 | Revisions Net=+7 | Growth EPS=+13.3% | Growth Revenue=+4.7%
EPS next Year (2027-11-30): EPS=2.83 | Chg30d=+0.020 | Revisions Net=+15 | Growth EPS=+11.1% | Growth Revenue=+3.8%