(CF) CF Industries Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US1252691001

Ammonia, Urea, Nitrate Solutions, Nitric Acid

Stock: Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Age 20.4y

MCap 13,379m
Avg Vol 2.48M (202M USD)

Beta 0.389
Volatility 30.42%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -54.94%
EPS Trend: -66.1%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -10.74%
Rev. Trend: -72.0%

Last SUE: 0.08
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	2.36%
Yield on Cost 5y	4.96%
Yield CAGR 5y	13.62%
Payout Consistency	97.6%
Payout Ratio	24.1%

Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility	30.4%
Value at Risk 5%th	49.2%
Relative Tail Risk	-1.68%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.23
Alpha	-17.34
CAGR/Max DD	0.09

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.393
Beta	0.389
Beta Downside	0.560

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	32.72%
Mean DD	12.53%
Median DD	11.79%

Description: CF CF Industries Holdings January 03, 2026

CF Industries Holdings Inc. (NYSE: CF) manufactures and sells hydrogen-based nitrogen products-including anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, UAN, and ammonium nitrate-serving agricultural cooperatives, retailers, distributors, traders, and industrial users across North America, Europe, and other global markets. The firm operates through five segments (Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other) and also offers ancillary chemicals such as diesel-exhaust fluid, nitric acid, and aqua-ammonia.

Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show roughly 22 million tons of ammonia capacity, net income of $1.2 billion, and an EBITDA margin near 23 %, while total debt sits at about $9 billion (≈ 1.5× EBITDA). The companys earnings are highly sensitive to natural-gas prices-its primary input cost-and to global nitrogen fertilizer demand, which is driven by rising crop-yield targets and government fertilizer-subsidy programs in major agricultural economies.

For a deeper, data-driven look at CF Industries’ valuation scenarios and risk factors, you might explore its profile on ValueRay.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0

Net Income (1.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 404.2m TTM)

FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.77pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 24.76% (prev 30.70%; Δ -5.94pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.19 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.63b > Net Income 1.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (1.56b) to EBITDA (3.12b) ratio: 0.50 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 2.27 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (161.2m) change vs 12m ago -9.74% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 39.76% (prev 34.85%; Δ 4.91pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 48.04% (prev 43.22%; Δ 4.81pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 13.86 (EBITDA TTM 3.12b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.44

(A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 2.98b - Total Current Liabilities 1.31b) / Total Assets 14.20b

(B) 0.30 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.20b / Total Assets 14.20b

(D) 0.61 = Book Value of Equity 3.97b / Total Liabilities 6.51b

Total Rating: 3.44 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.07

1. Piotroski 9.0pt

2. FCF Yield 10.43%

3. FCF Margin 25.42%

4. Debt/Equity 0.70

5. Debt/Ebitda 0.50

6. ROIC - WACC (= 17.02)%

7. RoE 28.18%

8. Rev. Trend -71.96%

9. EPS Trend -66.13%

What is the price of CF shares?

As of January 18, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 86.75 with a total of 2,285,750 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.02%, over one month by +11.86%, over three months by +5.12% and over the past year by -8.65%.

Is CF a buy, sell or hold?

CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.10. Therefor, it is recommend to hold CF.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 1
Hold: 18
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CF price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	91.4	5.4%
Analysts Target Price	91.4	5.4%
ValueRay Target Price	88.1	1.5%

CF Fundamental Data Overview January 11, 2026

P/E Trailing = 9.9879
P/E Forward = 10.4058
P/S = 1.9862
P/B = 2.6161
P/EG = 2.2723
Revenue TTM = 6.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.23b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 108.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.56b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 16.41b USD (13.38b + Debt 3.40b - CCE 366.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.86 (Ebit TTM 2.23b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m)
EV/FCF = 9.58x (Enterprise Value 16.41b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
FCF Yield = 10.43% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value 16.41b)
FCF Margin = 25.42% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Net Margin = 20.47% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Gross Margin = 39.76% ((Revenue TTM 6.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.10% (prev 44.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 16.41b / Total Assets 14.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.21% (Interest Expense 41.0m / Debt 3.40b)
Taxrate = 18.58% (105.0m / 565.0m)
NOPAT = 1.82b (EBIT 2.23b * (1 - 18.58%))
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 2.98b / Total Current Liabilities 1.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.70 (Debt 3.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (Net Debt 1.56b / EBITDA 3.12b)
Debt / FCF = 0.91 (Net Debt 1.56b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.89b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.83% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.20b)
RoE = 28.18% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.89b)
RoCE = 28.35% (EBIT 2.23b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.89b + L.T.Debt 2.97b))
RoIC = 23.09% (NOPAT 1.82b / Invested Capital 7.87b)
WACC = 6.07% (E(13.38b)/V(16.77b) * Re(7.36%) + D(3.40b)/V(16.77b) * Rd(1.21%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.04%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 83.70% ; FCFF base≈1.26b ; Y1≈1.07b ; Y5≈809.7m
Fair Price DCF = 140.0 (EV 23.40b - Net Debt 1.56b = Equity 21.84b / Shares 156.0m; r=6.07% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -18.69% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -66.13 | EPS CAGR: -54.94% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -71.96 | Revenue CAGR: -10.74% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.16 | Chg30d=+0.043 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.13 | Chg30d=+0.024 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-18.0% | Growth Revenue=-5.5%

Additional Sources for CF Stock

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