Overview Dividends

(CF) CF Industries Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US1252691001

Ammonia, Urea, Nitrate, Fertilizer, Industrial

Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
Market Cap in USD: 12,561m
IPO / Inception: 2005-08-11
Return 12m vs S&P 500: -17.0%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of CF over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-12": 0.4, "2021-03": 0.73, "2021-06": 1.15, "2021-09": -0.86, "2021-12": 3.27, "2022-03": 4.21, "2022-06": 6.19, "2022-09": 2.27, "2022-12": 4.28, "2023-03": 2.9, "2023-06": 2.71, "2023-09": 1.14, "2023-12": 1.58, "2024-03": 0.9, "2024-06": 2.3, "2024-09": 1.55, "2024-12": 1.89, "2025-03": 1.85, "2025-06": 2.37, "2025-09": 2.19,
EPS CAGR: -10.14%
EPS Trend: -56.0%
Last SUE: 0.95
Qual. Beats: 1

Revenue

Revenue of CF over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-12: 1102, 2021-03: 1048, 2021-06: 1588, 2021-09: 1362, 2021-12: 2540, 2022-03: 2868, 2022-06: 3389, 2022-09: 2321, 2022-12: 2608, 2023-03: 2012, 2023-06: 1775, 2023-09: 1273, 2023-12: 1571, 2024-03: 1470, 2024-06: 1572, 2024-09: 1370, 2024-12: 1524, 2025-03: 1663, 2025-06: 1890, 2025-09: 1659,
Rev. CAGR: -10.74%
Rev. Trend: -72.0%
Last SUE: 0.08
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield 2.53%
Yield on Cost 5y 5.94%
Yield CAGR 5y 13.62%
Payout Consistency 93.0%
Payout Ratio 24.1%
Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility 30.4%
Value at Risk 5%th 49.4%
Relative Tail Risk -1.17%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio -0.17
Alpha -17.21
CAGR/Max DD -0.09
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.393
Beta 0.413
Beta Downside 0.537
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 34.91%
Mean DD 13.90%
Median DD 13.57%

Description: CF CF Industries Holdings October 30, 2025

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) manufactures and sells hydrogen- and nitrogen-based products-including anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate-serving cooperatives, retailers, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users across North America, Europe, and other global markets.

The firm operates through five segments (Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other) and also offers ancillary chemicals such as diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua-ammonia. Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, CF Industries is classified under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry.

Key drivers to watch: (1) U.S. and global fertilizer demand is closely tied to crop-price trends and planting acreage, making grain price volatility a primary earnings catalyst; (2) Natural-gas input costs remain the dominant expense-CF Industries’ 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin was ~13% after a 30%-plus rise in gas prices; (3) The company’s recent capital-intensive expansion in the Gulf Coast and Europe aims to lock in lower-cost gas contracts, potentially improving cost structure and cash flow.

For a deeper, data-rich analysis of CF Industries’ valuation metrics and scenario modeling, you may find the research tools on ValueRay useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0

Net Income (1.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 404.2m TTM)
FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.77pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 24.76% (prev 30.70%; Δ -5.94pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.19 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.63b > Net Income 1.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (1.56b) to EBITDA (3.12b) ratio: 0.50 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 2.27 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (161.2m) change vs 12m ago -9.74% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 39.76% (prev 34.85%; Δ 4.91pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 48.04% (prev 43.22%; Δ 4.81pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio 13.86 (EBITDA TTM 3.12b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.44

(A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 2.98b - Total Current Liabilities 1.31b) / Total Assets 14.20b
(B) 0.30 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.20b / Total Assets 14.20b
(C) 0.16 = EBIT TTM 2.23b / Avg Total Assets 14.02b
(D) 0.61 = Book Value of Equity 3.97b / Total Liabilities 6.51b
Total Rating: 3.44 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 76.58

1. Piotroski 9.0pt
2. FCF Yield 10.98%
3. FCF Margin 25.42%
4. Debt/Equity 0.70
5. Debt/Ebitda 0.50
6. ROIC - WACC (= 16.94)%
7. RoE 28.18%
8. Rev. Trend -71.96%
9. EPS Trend -55.96%

What is the price of CF shares?

As of December 18, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 79.01 with a total of 2,046,352 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.84%, over one month by -2.08%, over three months by -5.59% and over the past year by -6.65%.

Is CF a buy, sell or hold?

CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.10. Therefor, it is recommend to hold CF.
  • Strong Buy: 1
  • Buy: 1
  • Hold: 18
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CF price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 91.9 16.4%
Analysts Target Price 91.9 16.4%
ValueRay Target Price 76.2 -3.6%

CF Fundamental Data Overview December 18, 2025

Market Cap USD = 12.56b (12.56b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.3773
P/E Forward = 9.9206
P/S = 1.8648
P/B = 2.4945
P/EG = 2.1666
Beta = 0.679
Revenue TTM = 6.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.23b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.12b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 108.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.56b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 15.59b USD (12.56b + Debt 3.40b - CCE 366.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 13.86 (Ebit TTM 2.23b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m)
FCF Yield = 10.98% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value 15.59b)
FCF Margin = 25.42% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Net Margin = 20.47% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Gross Margin = 39.76% ((Revenue TTM 6.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.10% (prev 44.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.10 (Enterprise Value 15.59b / Total Assets 14.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.21% (Interest Expense 41.0m / Debt 3.40b)
Taxrate = 18.58% (105.0m / 565.0m)
NOPAT = 1.82b (EBIT 2.23b * (1 - 18.58%))
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 2.98b / Total Current Liabilities 1.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.70 (Debt 3.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.85b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.50 (Net Debt 1.56b / EBITDA 3.12b)
Debt / FCF = 0.91 (Net Debt 1.56b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.89b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.71% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.20b)
RoE = 28.18% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.89b)
RoCE = 28.35% (EBIT 2.23b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.89b + L.T.Debt 2.97b))
RoIC = 23.09% (NOPAT 1.82b / Invested Capital 7.87b)
WACC = 6.14% (E(12.56b)/V(15.96b) * Re(7.54%) + D(3.40b)/V(15.96b) * Rd(1.21%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.54% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.04%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.59% ; FCFE base≈1.26b ; Y1≈1.07b ; Y5≈811.7m
Fair Price DCF = 95.35 (DCF Value 14.87b / Shares Outstanding 156.0m; 5y FCF grow -18.69% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -55.96 | EPS CAGR: -10.14% | SUE: 0.95 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -71.96 | Revenue CAGR: -10.74% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.12 | Chg30d=-0.025 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=4
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=7.11 | Chg30d=-0.194 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-18.2% | Growth Revenue=-5.9%

Additional Sources for CF Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle