Overview Dividends

(CF) CF Industries Holdings - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US1252691001

Ammonia, Urea, Nitrate, Fertilizer, Industrial

CF EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3Y CAGR): -21.62%
EPS Trend (3Y Correlation): -25.3%

CF Revenue

Revenue Growth (3Y CAGR): -15.17%
Revenue Trend (3Y Correlation): -36.1%

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	30.7%
Value at Risk 5%th	49.9%

Reward
Sharpe Ratio	0.11
Alpha Jensen	-10.95

Character
Hurst Exponent	0.377
Beta	0.673

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	44.49%
Mean DD	22.96%

Description: CF CF Industries Holdings October 30, 2025

CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF) manufactures and sells hydrogen- and nitrogen-based products-including anhydrous ammonia, granular urea, urea-ammonium nitrate (UAN), and ammonium nitrate-serving cooperatives, retailers, independent distributors, traders, wholesalers, and industrial users across North America, Europe, and other global markets.

The firm operates through five segments (Ammonia, Granular Urea, UAN, AN, and Other) and also offers ancillary chemicals such as diesel exhaust fluid, urea liquor, nitric acid, and aqua-ammonia. Founded in 1946 and headquartered in Northbrook, Illinois, CF Industries is classified under the Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals sub-industry.

Key drivers to watch: (1) U.S. and global fertilizer demand is closely tied to crop-price trends and planting acreage, making grain price volatility a primary earnings catalyst; (2) Natural-gas input costs remain the dominant expense-CF Industries’ 2023 adjusted EBITDA margin was ~13% after a 30%-plus rise in gas prices; (3) The company’s recent capital-intensive expansion in the Gulf Coast and Europe aims to lock in lower-cost gas contracts, potentially improving cost structure and cash flow.

For a deeper, data-rich analysis of CF Industries’ valuation metrics and scenario modeling, you may find the research tools on ValueRay useful.

CF Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	12,795m
Sub-Industry	Fertilizers & Agricultural Chemicals
IPO / Inception	2005-08-11
Return 12m vs S&P 500	-12.8%
Analyst Rating	3.10 of 5

CF Dividends

Dividend Yield	2.99%
Yield on Cost 5y	8.97%
Yield CAGR 5y	13.62%
Payout Consistency	97.7%
Payout Ratio	24.1%

CF Growth Ratios

CAGR	-5.91%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	-0.13
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	-0.26
Current Volume	1365.7k
Average Volume	2144.7k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0

Net Income (1.38b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 404.2m TTM)

FCFTA 0.12 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 7.77pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 24.76% (prev 30.70%; Δ -5.94pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.19 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.63b > Net Income 1.38b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (1.56b) to EBITDA (2.31b) ratio: 0.68 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 2.27 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (161.2m) change vs 12m ago -9.74% (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 39.76% (prev 34.85%; Δ 4.91pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 48.04% (prev 43.22%; Δ 4.81pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 10.09 (EBITDA TTM 2.31b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 3.15

(A) 0.12 = (Total Current Assets 2.98b - Total Current Liabilities 1.31b) / Total Assets 14.20b

(B) 0.30 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 4.20b / Total Assets 14.20b

(D) 0.61 = Book Value of Equity 3.97b / Total Liabilities 6.51b

Total Rating: 3.15 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 80.32

1. Piotroski 9.0pt = 4.0

2. FCF Yield 11.93% = 5.0

3. FCF Margin 25.42% = 6.35

4. Debt/Equity 0.44 = 2.40

5. Debt/Ebitda 0.68 = 2.16

6. ROIC - WACC (= 9.86)% = 12.33

7. RoE 24.60% = 2.05

8. Rev. Trend -36.07% = -2.71

9. EPS Trend -25.32% = -1.27

What is the price of CF shares?

As of November 13, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 83.68 with a total of 1,365,692 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.03%, over one month by -5.14%, over three months by +1.87% and over the past year by +0.72%.

Is CF Industries Holdings a good stock to buy?

Yes, based on ValueRay´s Fundamental Analyses, CF Industries Holdings (NYSE:CF) is currently (November 2025) a good stock to buy. It has a ValueRay Fundamental Rating of 80.32 and therefor a positive outlook according to the companies health.
Based on momentum, paid dividends and discounted-cash-flow analyses, the fair value of CF is around 76.73 USD . This means that CF is currently overvalued and has a potential downside of -8.31%.

Is CF a buy, sell or hold?

CF Industries Holdings has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.10. Therefor, it is recommend to hold CF.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 1
Hold: 18
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CF price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	92.9	11.1%
Analysts Target Price	92.9	11.1%
ValueRay Target Price	84.3	0.8%

CF Fundamental Data Overview November 10, 2025

Market Cap USD = 12.79b (12.79b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 9.919
P/E Forward = 11.2486
P/S = 1.8994
P/B = 2.932
P/EG = 0.5578
Beta = 0.673
Revenue TTM = 6.74b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.62b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.31b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.97b USD (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 108.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.40b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.56b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 14.35b USD (12.79b + Debt 3.40b - CCE 1.84b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.09 (Ebit TTM 1.62b / Interest Expense TTM 161.0m)
FCF Yield = 11.93% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value 14.35b)
FCF Margin = 25.42% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Net Margin = 20.47% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Revenue TTM 6.74b)
Gross Margin = 39.76% ((Revenue TTM 6.74b - Cost of Revenue TTM 4.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 38.10% (prev 44.76%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.01 (Enterprise Value 14.35b / Total Assets 14.20b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.21% (Interest Expense 41.0m / Debt 3.40b)
Taxrate = 18.58% (105.0m / 565.0m)
NOPAT = 1.32b (EBIT 1.62b * (1 - 18.58%))
Current Ratio = 2.27 (Total Current Assets 2.98b / Total Current Liabilities 1.31b)
Debt / Equity = 0.44 (Debt 3.40b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 7.70b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.68 (Net Debt 1.56b / EBITDA 2.31b)
Debt / FCF = 0.91 (Net Debt 1.56b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 5.61b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.71% (Net Income 1.38b / Total Assets 14.20b)
RoE = 24.60% (Net Income TTM 1.38b / Total Stockholder Equity 5.61b)
RoCE = 18.95% (EBIT 1.62b / Capital Employed (Equity 5.61b + L.T.Debt 2.97b))
RoIC = 16.79% (NOPAT 1.32b / Invested Capital 7.88b)
WACC = 6.92% (E(12.79b)/V(16.19b) * Re(8.50%) + D(3.40b)/V(16.19b) * Rd(1.21%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 8.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -8.04%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.79% ; FCFE base≈1.26b ; Y1≈1.07b ; Y5≈811.7m
Fair Price DCF = 87.83 (DCF Value 13.70b / Shares Outstanding 156.0m; 5y FCF grow -18.69% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -25.32 | EPS CAGR: -21.62% | SUE: 0.95 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -36.07 | Revenue CAGR: -15.17% | SUE: 0.08 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for CF Stock

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