(CGAU) Centerra Gold - Overview
Stock: Gold, Copper, Molybdenum
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.68% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.17% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 1.15% |
| Payout Consistency | 67.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 28.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 47.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.46% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.12 |
| Alpha | 152.81 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.463 |
| Beta Downside | 0.257 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.82% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.11 |
Description: CGAU Centerra Gold January 16, 2026
Centerra Gold Inc. (NYSE:CGAU) is a Toronto-based miner that acquires, explores, develops, and operates gold-copper assets across North America, Turkey, and other regions, with a secondary focus on molybdenum. Its flagship operations are the Mount Milligan mine in British Columbia (gold-copper) and the Öksüt mine in Türkiye (gold), complemented by development projects such as Kemess (BC) and Goldfield District (Nevada), and a molybdenum business centered on the Langeloth processing facility in Pennsylvania.
Key recent performance metrics (2023) show Mount Milligan delivering ~380,000 oz of gold and 150,000 t of copper, while operating cash costs averaged US$950 per ounce of gold equivalent, indicating a cost structure that remains competitive against the current gold price of roughly US$1,950/oz. The Öksüt mine contributed ~150,000 oz of gold, and the company’s molybdenum unit generated ~1.2 Mt of Mo concentrate, providing exposure to a metal whose price has risen >30% year-to-date on supply constraints.
Sector-wide drivers that materially affect Centerra include (1) the inverse relationship between real interest rates and gold demand, (2) accelerating copper consumption linked to renewable-energy infrastructure and electric-vehicle production, and (3) tightening molybdenum supply as steel-grade applications expand, all of which support a multi-metal exposure profile that can buffer commodity-specific volatility.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, see the ValueRay profile on Centerra Gold.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income: 338.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.85 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 54.47% < 20% (prev 54.44%; Δ 0.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 338.3m > Net Income 338.7m |
| Net Debt (-544.2m) to EBITDA (680.3m): -0.80 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.89 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.4m) vs 12m ago -1.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.68% > 18% (prev 0.33%; Δ 3134 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.17% > 50% (prev 53.87%; Δ -2.70% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 32.71 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 680.3m / Interest Expense TTM 11.3m) |
Altman Z'' 6.78
| A: 0.26 (Total Current Assets 1.07b - Total Current Liabilities 370.8m) / Total Assets 2.69b |
| B: 0.43 (Retained Earnings 1.17b / Total Assets 2.69b) |
| C: 0.15 (EBIT TTM 370.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.51b) |
| D: 2.54 (Book Value of Equity 1.91b / Total Liabilities 750.5m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.78 = AAA |
Beneish M -1.02
| DSRI: 2.57 (Receivables 192.5m/73.3m, Revenue 1.29b/1.26b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 31.68% / 33.27%) |
| AQI: 2.10 (AQ_t 0.09 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 1.02 (Revenue 1.29b / 1.26b) |
| TATA: 0.00 (NI 338.7m - CFO 338.3m) / TA 2.69b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.02 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of CGAU shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.12%, over one month by +12.02%, over three months by +44.52% and over the past year by +156.95%.
Is CGAU a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CGAU price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15.8 | -9.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15.8 | -9.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 19.8 | 14.1% |
CGAU Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 10.3306
P/S = 2.5878
P/B = 1.8185
Revenue TTM = 1.29b USD
EBIT TTM = 370.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 680.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 17.6m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.16m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -544.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.78b USD (3.33b + Debt 17.6m - CCE 568.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 32.71 (Ebit TTM 370.1m / Interest Expense TTM 11.3m)
EV/FCF = 21.33x (Enterprise Value 2.78b / FCF TTM 130.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.69% (FCF TTM 130.1m / Enterprise Value 2.78b)
FCF Margin = 10.12% (FCF TTM 130.1m / Revenue TTM 1.29b)
Net Margin = 26.35% (Net Income TTM 338.7m / Revenue TTM 1.29b)
Gross Margin = 31.68% ((Revenue TTM 1.29b - Cost of Revenue TTM 878.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.53% (prev 30.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.03 (Enterprise Value 2.78b / Total Assets 2.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 16.96% (Interest Expense 2.99m / Debt 17.6m)
Taxrate = 16.94% (59.6m / 351.8m)
NOPAT = 307.4m (EBIT 370.1m * (1 - 16.94%))
Current Ratio = 2.89 (Total Current Assets 1.07b / Total Current Liabilities 370.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.01 (Debt 17.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.94b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.80 (Net Debt -544.2m / EBITDA 680.3m)
Debt / FCF = -4.18 (Net Debt -544.2m / FCF TTM 130.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.74b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.48% (Net Income 338.7m / Total Assets 2.69b)
RoE = 19.47% (Net Income TTM 338.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.74b)
RoCE = 21.06% (EBIT 370.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.74b + L.T.Debt 17.6m))
RoIC = 17.67% (NOPAT 307.4m / Invested Capital 1.74b)
WACC = 7.65% (E(3.33b)/V(3.34b) * Re(7.62%) + D(17.6m)/V(3.34b) * Rd(16.96%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 7.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.18%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 71.84% ; FCFF base≈159.2m ; Y1≈104.5m ; Y5≈47.7m
Fair Price DCF = 7.62 (EV 993.5m - Net Debt -544.2m = Equity 1.54b / Shares 201.8m; r=7.65% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 50.89 | EPS CAGR: -13.67% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.17 | Revenue CAGR: 12.86% | SUE: 0.32 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.46 | Chg30d=+0.110 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.86 | Chg30d=+0.380 | Revisions Net=+6 | Growth EPS=+77.1% | Growth Revenue=+13.3%