(CMG) Chipotle Mexican Grill - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US1696561059

Stock: Burritos, Bowls, Tacos, Salads, Quesadillas

Total Rating 45

Risk 91

Buy Signal -1.25

Restaurants » Restaurants
Age: 20y

Market Cap: 51,637m
Avg Trading Vol: 633M USD

ATR: 3.33%
Peers RS (IBD): 40.00

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -37.36%
EPS Trend: 24.6%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 12.05%
Rev. Trend: 96.9%

Last SUE: -0.49
Qual. Beats: 0

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	37.3%
Relative Tail Risk	-10.5%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.86
Alpha	-46.20

Character TTM
Beta	0.918
Beta Downside	0.899

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	56.51%
CAGR/Max DD	0.13

Description: CMG Chipotle Mexican Grill January 27, 2026

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) operates a chain of fast-casual restaurants serving a menu of burritos, bowls, tacos, salads and related items, with ordering available through its app and website. The brand is present in the United States, Canada, France, Germany, Dubai and the United Kingdom, and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

As of the latest Q4 2025 results, Chipotle reported a 12.5% year-over-year increase in comparable restaurant sales and a digital-order share of 55% of total revenue, reflecting the continued shift toward off-premise consumption. The company now runs roughly 3,420 locations worldwide, with an average ticket size of $10.30 and an operating margin of 18.2%, both above the fast-casual industry average of ~14% margin. Key economic drivers include resilient consumer spending on affordable premium meals, elevated labor-cost pressures from a tight U.S. job market, and commodity price volatility that impacts food-cost ratios.

For a deeper dive into CMG’s valuation assumptions and scenario modeling, see ValueRay’s dedicated research page.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 8.5

Net Income: 1.54b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.06 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 5.29% < 20% (prev 5.85%; Δ -0.56% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.24 > 3% & CFO 2.21b > Net Income 1.54b
Net Debt (4.28b) to EBITDA (2.35b): 1.82 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.54 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.34b) vs 12m ago -2.55% < -2%
Gross Margin: 25.72% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2545 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 128.9% > 50% (prev 121.9%; Δ 6.97% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: -112.2 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.35b / Interest Expense TTM -17.8m)

Altman Z'' 2.45

A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 1.77b - Total Current Liabilities 1.15b) / Total Assets 9.28b
B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 1.04b / Total Assets 9.28b)
C: 0.22 (EBIT TTM 2.00b / Avg Total Assets 9.15b)
D: 0.17 (Book Value of Equity 1.04b / Total Liabilities 6.06b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 2.45 = A

Beneish M -3.72

DSRI: 0.51 (Receivables 95.8m/175.3m, Revenue 11.79b/10.98b)
GMI: 1.04 (GM 25.72% / 26.87%)
AQI: 0.49 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.12)
SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 11.79b / 10.98b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 1.54b - CFO 2.21b) / TA 9.28b)
Beneish M-Score: -3.72 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA

What is the price of CMG shares?

As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 39.39 with a total of 15,286,270 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.34%, over one month by +1.99%, over three months by +28.89% and over the past year by -31.28%.

Is CMG a buy, sell or hold?

Chipotle Mexican Grill has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.29. Therefore, it is recommended to buy CMG.

StrongBuy: 20
Buy: 4
Hold: 10
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the CMG price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	45.2	14.7%
Analysts Target Price	45.2	14.7%
ValueRay Target Price	39	-0.9%

CMG Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026

P/E Trailing = 34.3839
P/E Forward = 31.8471
P/S = 4.3807
P/B = 15.9527
P/EG = 1.9832
Revenue TTM = 11.79b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.00b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.35b USD
Long Term Debt = 4.98b USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 293.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.98b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 4.28b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 55.92b USD (51.64b + Debt 4.98b - CCE 698.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -112.2 (Ebit TTM 2.00b / Interest Expense TTM -17.8m)
EV/FCF = 35.55x (Enterprise Value 55.92b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
FCF Yield = 2.81% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Enterprise Value 55.92b)
FCF Margin = 13.35% (FCF TTM 1.57b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Net Margin = 13.04% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Revenue TTM 11.79b)
Gross Margin = 25.72% ((Revenue TTM 11.79b - Cost of Revenue TTM 8.76b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 24.49% (prev 27.36%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 6.02 (Enterprise Value 55.92b / Total Assets 9.28b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.18% (Interest Expense 8.95m / Debt 4.98b)
Taxrate = 23.11% (114.9m / 497.0m)
NOPAT = 1.54b (EBIT 2.00b * (1 - 23.11%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 1.77b / Total Current Liabilities 1.15b)
Debt / Equity = 1.55 (Debt 4.98b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.22b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.82 (Net Debt 4.28b / EBITDA 2.35b)
Debt / FCF = 2.72 (Net Debt 4.28b / FCF TTM 1.57b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.80% (Net Income 1.54b / Total Assets 9.28b)
RoE = 44.23% (Net Income TTM 1.54b / Total Stockholder Equity 3.47b)
RoCE = 23.62% (EBIT 2.00b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.47b + L.T.Debt 4.98b))
RoIC = 44.20% (NOPAT 1.54b / Invested Capital 3.47b)
WACC = 8.49% (E(51.64b)/V(56.62b) * Re(9.30%) + D(4.98b)/V(56.62b) * Rd(0.18%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 9.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.51%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 79.48% ; FCFF base≈1.44b ; Y1≈1.76b ; Y5≈2.91b
Fair Price DCF = 30.60 (EV 44.75b - Net Debt 4.28b = Equity 40.46b / Shares 1.32b; r=8.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 23.27% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 24.64 | EPS CAGR: -37.36% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.88 | Revenue CAGR: 12.05% | SUE: -0.49 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=+0.001 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=29
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.22 | Chg30d=+0.004 | Revisions Net=+7 | Growth EPS=+5.3% | Growth Revenue=+9.7%

Additional Sources for CMG Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle