(COP) ConocoPhillips - Overview
Stock: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Bitumen, LNG, NGL
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.45% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 8.09% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 13.01% |
| Payout Consistency | 95.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 51.8% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.73% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.37 |
| Alpha | -4.44 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.992 |
| Beta Downside | 1.562 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.52% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.02 |
Description: COP ConocoPhillips January 27, 2026
ConocoPhillips (NYSE: COP) is an integrated upstream company that explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, LNG, and natural-gas liquids across six geographic segments: Alaska, Lower 48, Canada, Europe-Middle East-North Africa (EMENA), Asia Pacific, and Other International.
The portfolio blends unconventional plays (e.g., the Bakken and Eagle Ford) with conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia, plus oil-sand operations in Canada and a pipeline of global LNG projects (notably the Australia-to-Asia “Australia Pacific LNG” development).
Key recent metrics (Q4 2023 / FY 2023): - Net production averaged 1.31 million boe/d, up 3 % YoY; - Adjusted cash flow reached $7.8 billion, a 12 % increase; - Free cash flow conversion stood at 85 %; - Debt-to-EBITDA fell to 2.1×, the lowest in the past five years; - Dividend yield was ~3.2 % with a 6-year consecutive increase.
Sector-wide drivers that materially affect COP’s outlook include: - Crude-oil price volatility tied to OPEC+ production decisions and global macro-risk (e.g., geopolitical tensions in the Middle East); - Rising LNG demand in Asia, which supports higher realized gas prices and underpins the company’s LNG growth strategy; - Increasing ESG scrutiny and carbon-pricing policies that could pressure upstream margins, especially for high-emission assets like oil sands.
Given these dynamics, a deeper quantitative assessment of COP’s exposure to oil-price cycles and LNG market growth could be valuable-consider exploring ValueRay’s analytical tools for a more granular risk-return profile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 7.93b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 5.97% < 20% (prev 6.45%; Δ -0.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 19.80b > Net Income 7.93b |
| Net Debt (16.95b) to EBITDA (25.04b): 0.68 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.20b) vs 12m ago 1.33% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.15% > 18% (prev 0.29%; Δ 3486 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 48.76% > 50% (prev 44.48%; Δ 4.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 11.99 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 25.04b / Interest Expense TTM 1.14b) |
Altman Z'' 3.93
| A: 0.03 (Total Current Assets 15.53b - Total Current Liabilities 11.97b) / Total Assets 121.94b |
| B: 0.56 (Retained Earnings 68.86b / Total Assets 121.94b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 13.65b / Avg Total Assets 122.36b) |
| D: 1.10 (Book Value of Equity 62.98b / Total Liabilities 57.45b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.93 = AA |
Beneish M -3.30
| DSRI: 0.79 (Receivables 5.81b/6.70b, Revenue 59.67b/54.61b) |
| GMI: 0.83 (GM 35.15% / 29.35%) |
| AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.11 / AQ_t-1 0.10) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 59.67b / 54.61b) |
| TATA: -0.10 (NI 7.93b - CFO 19.80b) / TA 121.94b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.30 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of COP shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.73%, over one month by +9.02%, over three months by +23.11% and over the past year by +11.92%.
Is COP a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 14
- Buy: 13
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the COP price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 114.9 | 6.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 114.9 | 6.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 112 | 4% |
COP Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.9205
P/S = 2.1607
P/B = 1.9811
P/EG = 3.7201
Revenue TTM = 59.67b USD
EBIT TTM = 13.65b USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.04b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.47b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 1.02b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.44b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 16.95b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 149.45b USD (132.99b + Debt 23.44b - CCE 6.98b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 11.99 (Ebit TTM 13.65b / Interest Expense TTM 1.14b)
EV/FCF = 8.91x (Enterprise Value 149.45b / FCF TTM 16.77b)
FCF Yield = 11.22% (FCF TTM 16.77b / Enterprise Value 149.45b)
FCF Margin = 28.11% (FCF TTM 16.77b / Revenue TTM 59.67b)
Net Margin = 13.29% (Net Income TTM 7.93b / Revenue TTM 59.67b)
Gross Margin = 35.15% ((Revenue TTM 59.67b - Cost of Revenue TTM 38.69b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 63.38% (prev 24.12%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.23 (Enterprise Value 149.45b / Total Assets 121.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.24% (Interest Expense 290.0m / Debt 23.44b)
Taxrate = 39.13% (900.0m / 2.30b)
NOPAT = 8.31b (EBIT 13.65b * (1 - 39.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.30 (Total Current Assets 15.53b / Total Current Liabilities 11.97b)
Debt / Equity = 0.36 (Debt 23.44b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 64.49b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.68 (Net Debt 16.95b / EBITDA 25.04b)
Debt / FCF = 1.01 (Net Debt 16.95b / FCF TTM 16.77b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 65.06b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.48% (Net Income 7.93b / Total Assets 121.94b)
RoE = 12.19% (Net Income TTM 7.93b / Total Stockholder Equity 65.06b)
RoCE = 15.60% (EBIT 13.65b / Capital Employed (Equity 65.06b + L.T.Debt 22.47b))
RoIC = 9.35% (NOPAT 8.31b / Invested Capital 88.84b)
WACC = 8.25% (E(132.99b)/V(156.43b) * Re(9.57%) + D(23.44b)/V(156.43b) * Rd(1.24%) * (1-Tc(0.39)))
Discount Rate = 9.57% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.28%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 75.60% ; FCFF base≈13.27b ; Y1≈12.02b ; Y5≈10.45b
Fair Price DCF = 132.2 (EV 178.93b - Net Debt 16.95b = Equity 161.99b / Shares 1.23b; r=8.25% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -11.66% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -67.64 | EPS CAGR: -26.70% | SUE: -0.93 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -59.13 | Revenue CAGR: -6.36% | SUE: -0.41 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.15 | Chg30d=-0.266 | Revisions Net=-7 | Analysts=20
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.10 | Chg30d=-0.906 | Revisions Net=-13 | Growth EPS=-17.3% | Growth Revenue=-13.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=7.23 | Chg30d=-0.703 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=+41.9% | Growth Revenue=+12.9%