(CTO) CTO Realty Growth - Overview
Stock: Retail Properties, Net Lease, Alpine Interest, External Management
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 8.60% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 15.37% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -21.49% |
| Payout Consistency | 90.4% |
| Payout Ratio | 50.5% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.16% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.07 |
| Alpha | -9.27 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.443 |
| Beta Downside | 0.476 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 21.39% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.37 |
Description: CTO CTO Realty Growth December 27, 2025
CTO Realty Growth, Inc. (NYSE: CTO) is a publicly traded REIT that owns and operates a portfolio of high-quality, retail-focused properties concentrated in higher-growth U.S. markets. In addition to its core assets, CTO externally manages and holds a significant stake in Alpine Income Property Trust (NYSE: PINE), a net-lease REIT that adds diversification and a steady income stream.
Key operating metrics (FY 2023) show an occupancy rate of roughly 95 % and a same-store net operating income (NOI) growth of about 6 % year-over-year, reflecting resilient tenant demand. The portfolio is heavily weighted toward Sun Belt and secondary-city locations, where retail sales are growing 2–3 % faster than the national average, a sector driver that supports rent-growth potential. The partnership with PINE provides exposure to long-term net-lease contracts, which historically exhibit lower volatility and higher cash-flow predictability.
Note: The GICS sub-industry tag listed as “Multi-Family Residential REITs” appears inconsistent with CTO’s retail-centric business model; industry classifications often lag behind actual asset mixes, so analysts should verify the correct sector classification before benchmarking.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown of CTO’s risk-adjusted returns, the ValueRay platform offers a free analyst-grade dashboard you may find useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: -33.3m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 101.8% < 20% (prev 125.9%; Δ -24.10% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 81.3m > Net Income -33.3m |
| Net Debt (609.9m) to EBITDA (24.3m): 25.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (32.7m) vs 12m ago 28.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.48% > 18% (prev 0.73%; Δ 7375 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.25% > 50% (prev 10.09%; Δ 2.16% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.85 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 24.3m / Interest Expense TTM 24.7m) |
Altman Z'' 1.41
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 187.2m - Total Current Liabilities 37.7m) / Total Assets 1.22b |
| B: 0.14 (Retained Earnings 170.8m / Total Assets 1.22b) |
| C: -0.02 (EBIT TTM -20.9m / Avg Total Assets 1.20b) |
| D: 0.26 (Book Value of Equity 170.6m / Total Liabilities 665.1m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.41 = BB |
Beneish M -3.04
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 134.7m/117.3m, Revenue 146.9m/118.7m) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 74.48% / 73.04%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.86) |
| SGI: 1.24 (Revenue 146.9m / 118.7m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI -33.3m - CFO 81.3m) / TA 1.22b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of CTO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.61%, over one month by +1.20%, over three months by +11.16% and over the past year by -0.06%.
Is CTO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CTO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 21.4 | 15.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 21.4 | 15.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.7 | 11.2% |
CTO Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/S = 3.99
P/B = 1.0341
Revenue TTM = 146.9m USD
EBIT TTM = -20.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 24.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 604.2m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 51.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 619.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 609.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.20b USD (586.3m + Debt 619.2m - CCE 9.28m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.85 (Ebit TTM -20.9m / Interest Expense TTM 24.7m)
EV/FCF = 15.92x (Enterprise Value 1.20b / FCF TTM 75.1m)
FCF Yield = 6.28% (FCF TTM 75.1m / Enterprise Value 1.20b)
FCF Margin = 51.12% (FCF TTM 75.1m / Revenue TTM 146.9m)
Net Margin = -22.69% (Net Income TTM -33.3m / Revenue TTM 146.9m)
Gross Margin = 74.48% ((Revenue TTM 146.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 37.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.44% (prev 72.96%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.98 (Enterprise Value 1.20b / Total Assets 1.22b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 6.83m / Debt 619.2m)
Taxrate = 1.95% (58.0k / 2.97m)
NOPAT = -20.5m (EBIT -20.9m * (1 - 1.95%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 4.97 (Total Current Assets 187.2m / Total Current Liabilities 37.7m)
Debt / Equity = 1.11 (Debt 619.2m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 557.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 25.07 (Net Debt 609.9m / EBITDA 24.3m)
Debt / FCF = 8.12 (Net Debt 609.9m / FCF TTM 75.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 584.5m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.78% (Net Income -33.3m / Total Assets 1.22b)
RoE = -5.70% (Net Income TTM -33.3m / Total Stockholder Equity 584.5m)
RoCE = -1.76% (EBIT -20.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 584.5m + L.T.Debt 604.2m))
RoIC = -1.75% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -20.5m / Invested Capital 1.17b)
WACC = 4.23% (E(586.3m)/V(1.21b) * Re(7.55%) + D(619.2m)/V(1.21b) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.02)))
Discount Rate = 7.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 12.38%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈66.0m ; Y1≈81.4m ; Y5≈138.6m
Fair Price DCF = 105.9 (EV 4.04b - Net Debt 609.9m = Equity 3.43b / Shares 32.4m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 1.87 | EPS CAGR: 3.68% | SUE: 0.02 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 91.77 | Revenue CAGR: 11.98% | SUE: 0.06 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.03 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.14 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+120.4% | Growth Revenue=+4.6%