(CYD) China Yuchai International - Ratings and Ratios
Engines, Generators, Powertrains, Parts, Services
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.51% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | -18.23% |
| Payout Consistency | 67.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 14.9% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 56.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -11.59% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 2.10 |
| Alpha | 286.99 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.63 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.541 |
| Beta | 0.632 |
| Beta Downside | 1.519 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.46% |
| Mean DD | 16.68% |
| Median DD | 16.52% |
Description: CYD China Yuchai International November 17, 2025
China Yuchai International Limited (NYSE:CYD) designs, manufactures, and sells a broad portfolio of diesel, natural-gas, hydrogen, methanol, and hybrid powertrains for on- and off-road applications-including trucks, buses, construction equipment, marine vessels, and power generators-while also providing aftermarket services such as repair, retrofitting, and remanufacturing. The firm operates two distinct segments: the Yuchai segment, which focuses on powertrain production, and the HLGE segment, which is engaged in hospitality and property development.
Key operating data (FY 2023, disclosed in the company’s annual report) show revenue of approximately US$1.2 billion, a net profit margin of 4.8 %, and a 78 % capacity utilization rate in its core engine plants. The Chinese heavy-duty diesel engine market is projected to grow at ~5 % CAGR through 2028, driven by sustained infrastructure spending and tighter emissions standards that are prompting a shift toward natural-gas and hybrid powertrains-segments where Yuchai reported a 12 % YoY increase in orders. Additionally, the company’s export share rose to roughly 15 % of total sales, reflecting growing demand for low-emission engines in Southeast Asia and Africa.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of CYD’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analytical tools on ValueRay useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5
| Net Income (307.0m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 1.21b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.01 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -2.97pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 36.19% (prev 44.49%; Δ -8.30pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.03 (>3.0%) and CFO 779.4m > Net Income 307.0m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-3.74b) to EBITDA (1.18b) ratio: -3.17 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.55 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (37.5m) change vs 12m ago -8.17% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 12.66% (prev 16.37%; Δ -3.71pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 76.29% (prev 62.00%; Δ 14.29pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 10.37 (EBITDA TTM 1.18b / Interest Expense TTM 53.2m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.43
| (A) 0.27 = (Total Current Assets 20.52b - Total Current Liabilities 13.23b) / Total Assets 27.05b |
| (B) 0.26 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 6.98b / Total Assets 27.05b |
| (C) 0.02 = EBIT TTM 551.0m / Avg Total Assets 26.40b |
| (D) 0.64 = Book Value of Equity 9.49b / Total Liabilities 14.75b |
| Total Rating: 3.43 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 56.38
| 1. Piotroski 5.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 4.21% |
| 3. FCF Margin 1.16% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.27 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -3.17 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -2.35)% |
| 7. RoE 3.33% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -7.63% |
| 9. EPS Trend 35.12% |
What is the price of CYD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.32%, over one month by -8.40%, over three months by -9.53% and over the past year by +299.89%.
Is CYD a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the CYD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 34.2 | -2.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 34.2 | -2.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 41.8 | 18.7% |
CYD Fundamental Data Overview December 05, 2025
P/E Trailing = 20.5673
P/E Forward = 15.5521
P/S = 0.0583
P/B = 0.9882
Beta = 1.193
Revenue TTM = 20.14b CNY
EBIT TTM = 551.0m CNY
EBITDA TTM = 1.18b CNY
Long Term Debt = 638.0m CNY (from longTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Short Term Debt = 1.90b CNY (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.57b CNY (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -3.74b CNY (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 5.57b CNY (9.31b + Debt 2.57b - CCE 6.31b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 10.37 (Ebit TTM 551.0m / Interest Expense TTM 53.2m)
FCF Yield = 4.21% (FCF TTM 234.2m / Enterprise Value 5.57b)
FCF Margin = 1.16% (FCF TTM 234.2m / Revenue TTM 20.14b)
Net Margin = 1.52% (Net Income TTM 307.0m / Revenue TTM 20.14b)
Gross Margin = 12.66% ((Revenue TTM 20.14b - Cost of Revenue TTM 17.59b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.32% (prev 12.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.21 (Enterprise Value 5.57b / Total Assets 27.05b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.63% (Interest Expense 16.1m / Debt 2.57b)
Taxrate = 17.85% (58.1m / 325.5m)
NOPAT = 452.7m (EBIT 551.0m * (1 - 17.85%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 20.52b / Total Current Liabilities 13.23b)
Debt / Equity = 0.27 (Debt 2.57b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.40b)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.17 (Net Debt -3.74b / EBITDA 1.18b)
Debt / FCF = -15.97 (Net Debt -3.74b / FCF TTM 234.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 9.22b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.13% (Net Income 307.0m / Total Assets 27.05b)
RoE = 3.33% (Net Income TTM 307.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 9.22b)
RoCE = 5.59% (EBIT 551.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 9.22b + L.T.Debt 638.0m))
RoIC = 4.30% (NOPAT 452.7m / Invested Capital 10.54b)
WACC = 6.65% (E(9.31b)/V(11.88b) * Re(8.34%) + D(2.57b)/V(11.88b) * Rd(0.63%) * (1-Tc(0.18)))
Discount Rate = 8.34% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -4.17%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.14% ; FCFE base≈535.8m ; Y1≈351.8m ; Y5≈160.9m
Fair Price DCF = 80.14 (DCF Value 3.01b / Shares Outstanding 37.5m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 35.12 | EPS CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -7.63 | Revenue CAGR: 13.32% | SUE: -0.17 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=15.92 | Chg30d=+4.490 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+2.4% | Growth Revenue=+5.1%
Additional Sources for CYD Stock
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Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle