(DEC) Diversified Energy - Overview
Stock: Natural Gas, Liquids, Transportation, Marketing
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 7.99% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 7.94% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 64.09% |
| Payout Consistency | 90.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 104.9% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 45.5% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.25% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.20 |
| Alpha | -28.43 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.886 |
| Beta Downside | 1.292 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 51.32% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.22 |
Description: DEC Diversified Energy December 30, 2025
Diversified Energy Company plc (NYSE: DEC) is an independent upstream and midstream operator that extracts, transports, and markets natural gas and oil liquids across a portfolio of U.S. shale assets, including the Appalachian, Central, Bossier, Haynesville, Cotton Valley, Barnett, Anadarko, and Permian basins. Founded in 2001 and headquartered in Birmingham, Alabama, the firm’s geographic focus spans the Appalachian and Central regions, as well as key producing areas in Texas, Oklahoma, Louisiana, and New Mexico.
As of Q3 2024, DEC reported average daily production of roughly 30 MMcf of natural gas and 3 Mbbl of oil equivalent, with a cash-flow conversion rate of about 85 % and a net debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 2.1×-both metrics that sit comfortably within the mid-range of peer averages for U.S. independent E&P firms. The company’s earnings are highly sensitive to the Henry Hub natural-gas price (currently around $2.80 /MMBtu) and to regional pipeline capacity constraints that can affect gathering margins; a 10 % swing in gas prices historically translates to a 6-8 % change in DEC’s adjusted EBITDA.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of DEC’s valuation dynamics, you may find it useful to explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 5.28m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.48 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -22.26% < 20% (prev -13.48%; Δ -8.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 627.7m > Net Income 5.28m |
| Net Debt (2.74b) to EBITDA (807.0m): 3.39 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (68.8m) vs 12m ago 42.97% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 37.67% > 18% (prev 0.73%; Δ 3693 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 41.24% > 50% (prev 71.30%; Δ -30.06% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.58 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 807.0m / Interest Expense TTM 369.6m) |
Altman Z'' -0.74
| A: -0.07 (Total Current Assets 487.1m - Total Current Liabilities 906.4m) / Total Assets 5.66b |
| B: -0.14 (Retained Earnings -802.0m / Total Assets 5.66b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 216.2m / Avg Total Assets 4.57b) |
| D: -0.10 (Book Value of Equity -514.2m / Total Liabilities 4.94b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.74 = B |
Beneish M -1.26
| DSRI: 2.31 (Receivables 334.4m/190.2m, Revenue 1.88b/2.48b) |
| GMI: 1.95 (GM 37.67% / 73.37%) |
| AQI: 1.18 (AQ_t 0.08 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 0.76 (Revenue 1.88b / 2.48b) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI 5.28m - CFO 627.7m) / TA 5.66b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.26 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of DEC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.77%, over one month by -5.65%, over three months by -3.05% and over the past year by -13.17%.
Is DEC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the DEC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 20.8 | 56% |
| Analysts Target Price | 20.8 | 56% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 14.8 | 10.6% |
DEC Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/S = 0.8715
P/B = 1.4068
Revenue TTM = 1.88b USD
EBIT TTM = 216.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = 807.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.46b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 236.1m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.76b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.74b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.86b USD (1.13b + Debt 2.76b - CCE 23.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.58 (Ebit TTM 216.2m / Interest Expense TTM 369.6m)
EV/FCF = 6.29x (Enterprise Value 3.86b / FCF TTM 614.1m)
FCF Yield = 15.90% (FCF TTM 614.1m / Enterprise Value 3.86b)
FCF Margin = 32.60% (FCF TTM 614.1m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Net Margin = 0.28% (Net Income TTM 5.28m / Revenue TTM 1.88b)
Gross Margin = 37.67% ((Revenue TTM 1.88b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.17b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.57% (prev -14.14%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.68 (Enterprise Value 3.86b / Total Assets 5.66b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.76% (Interest Expense 103.9m / Debt 2.76b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 170.8m (EBIT 216.2m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.54 (Total Current Assets 487.1m / Total Current Liabilities 906.4m)
Debt / Equity = 3.85 (Debt 2.76b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 716.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.39 (Net Debt 2.74b / EBITDA 807.0m)
Debt / FCF = 4.46 (Net Debt 2.74b / FCF TTM 614.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 572.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 0.12% (Net Income 5.28m / Total Assets 5.66b)
RoE = 0.92% (Net Income TTM 5.28m / Total Stockholder Equity 572.6m)
RoCE = 7.13% (EBIT 216.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 572.6m + L.T.Debt 2.46b))
RoIC = 7.12% (NOPAT 170.8m / Invested Capital 2.40b)
WACC = 4.77% (E(1.13b)/V(3.89b) * Re(9.18%) + D(2.76b)/V(3.89b) * Rd(3.76%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.18% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 20.30%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈373.5m ; Y1≈245.2m ; Y5≈111.9m
Fair Price DCF = 10.88 (EV 3.56b - Net Debt 2.74b = Equity 828.0m / Shares 76.1m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
Revenue Correlation: 10.26 | Revenue CAGR: 59.01% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.02 | Chg30d=-0.188 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=3.01 | Chg30d=+0.259 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+88.0% | Growth Revenue=+7.7%