(EARN) Ellington Residential - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US2885781078

Stock: CLOs, Mezzanine Debt, Equity Tranches

Total Rating 30

Risk 80

Buy Signal -0.47

Asset Management » Mortgage REITs
Age: 12.8y

Market Cap: 199m
Avg Trading Vol: 2.20M USD

ATR: 2.36%
Peers RS (IBD): 29.17

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -48.81%
EPS Trend: -29.3%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 56.79%
Rev. Trend: 63.8%

Last SUE: 0.24
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	17.28%
Yield on Cost 5y	15.61%
Yield CAGR 5y	-5.03%
Payout Consistency	90.8%
Payout Ratio	42.1%

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	26.0%
Relative Tail Risk	0.31%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.25
Alpha	-16.43

Character TTM
Beta	0.625
Beta Downside	0.852

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	31.19%
CAGR/Max DD	0.08

Description: EARN Ellington Residential January 02, 2026

Ellington Credit Company (formerly Ellington Residential Mortgage REIT) is a closed-end investment vehicle that seeks current yield and risk-adjusted total return by investing primarily in collateralized loan obligations (CLOs), with a focus on mezzanine-level debt and equity tranches. The firm was incorporated in 2012, rebranded in April 2024, and is headquartered in Old Greenwich, Connecticut.

As of its most recent filing, Ellington Credit Company reported an annualized dividend yield of roughly 8.2% and a net asset value (NAV) of about $10.45 per share, while maintaining a leverage ratio near 1.4×, indicating moderate use of debt to amplify returns.

The company’s performance is tightly linked to macro-economic factors such as Federal Reserve policy and the broader mortgage-rate environment; rising rates can compress CLO spreads but also improve the credit quality of underlying assets, while a slowdown in residential mortgage originations can reduce the pipeline of new CLO issuances.

For a deeper, data-driven look at EARN’s valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a concise dashboard you may find useful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0

Net Income: 17.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 4.50 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -1031 % < 20% (prev -1691 %; Δ 659.6% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 16.9m > Net Income 17.9m
Net Debt (531.1m) to EBITDA (21.9m): 24.27 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (34.8m) vs 12m ago 71.03% < -2%
Gross Margin: 59.05% > 18% (prev -0.06%; Δ 5911 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 7.48% > 50% (prev 3.35%; Δ 4.13% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.06 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 21.9m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m)

Altman Z'' -10.34

A: -1.25 (Total Current Assets 75.0m - Total Current Liabilities 595.5m) / Total Assets 415.7m
B: -0.42 (Retained Earnings -175.3m / Total Assets 415.7m)
C: 0.03 (EBIT TTM 21.9m / Avg Total Assets 674.6m)
D: -0.92 (Book Value of Equity -175.3m / Total Liabilities 190.7m)
Altman-Z'' Score: -10.34 = D

What is the price of EARN shares?

As of February 08, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 5.27 with a total of 302,310 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.48%, over one month by -0.09%, over three months by +7.76% and over the past year by -4.97%.

Is EARN a buy, sell or hold?

Ellington Residential has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.25. Therefor, it is recommend to hold EARN.

StrongBuy: 0
Buy: 1
Hold: 3
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the EARN price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	5.8	9.1%
Analysts Target Price	5.8	9.1%
ValueRay Target Price	6.5	22.6%

EARN Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026

P/E Trailing = 18.9286
P/E Forward = 6.1958
P/S = 5.5477
P/B = 0.9514
P/EG = -1.79
Revenue TTM = 50.5m USD
EBIT TTM = 21.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 21.9m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 563.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 563.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 531.1m USD (from netDebt column, last fiscal year)
Enterprise Value = 742.0m USD (199.1m + Debt 563.0m - CCE 20.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.06 (Ebit TTM 21.9m / Interest Expense TTM 20.7m)
EV/FCF = 44.02x (Enterprise Value 742.0m / FCF TTM 16.9m)
FCF Yield = 2.27% (FCF TTM 16.9m / Enterprise Value 742.0m)
FCF Margin = 33.39% (FCF TTM 16.9m / Revenue TTM 50.5m)
Net Margin = 35.50% (Net Income TTM 17.9m / Revenue TTM 50.5m)
Gross Margin = 59.05% ((Revenue TTM 50.5m - Cost of Revenue TTM 20.7m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 47.77%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.78 (Enterprise Value 742.0m / Total Assets 415.7m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.10% (Interest Expense 6.21m / Debt 563.0m)
Taxrate = 7.19% (510.0k / 7.10m)
NOPAT = 20.3m (EBIT 21.9m * (1 - 7.19%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 75.0m / Total Current Liabilities 595.5m)
Debt / Equity = 2.50 (Debt 563.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 225.1m)
Debt / EBITDA = 24.27 (Net Debt 531.1m / EBITDA 21.9m)
Debt / FCF = 31.51 (Net Debt 531.1m / FCF TTM 16.9m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 209.7m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.66% (Net Income 17.9m / Total Assets 415.7m)
RoE = 8.55% (Net Income TTM 17.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 209.7m)
RoCE = -12.17% (negative capital employed) (EBIT 21.9m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 415.7m - Current Liab 595.5m))
RoIC = 2.65% (NOPAT 20.3m / Invested Capital 768.0m)
WACC = 2.90% (E(199.1m)/V(762.1m) * Re(8.22%) + D(563.0m)/V(762.1m) * Rd(1.10%) * (1-Tc(0.07)))
Discount Rate = 8.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 44.54%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈16.9m ; Y1≈11.1m ; Y5≈5.05m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 160.9m - Net Debt 531.1m = -370.3m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -29.26 | EPS CAGR: -48.81% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 63.75 | Revenue CAGR: 56.79% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.05 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+23.2% | Growth Revenue=+25.7%

Additional Sources for EARN Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle