(EC) Ecopetrol - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: Colombia •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US2791581091
Stock: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Lpg
Total Rating 51
Risk 74
Buy Signal -0.05
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 16.69% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 25.07% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 100.80% |
| Payout Consistency | 66.8% |
| Payout Ratio | 0.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -1.43% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.29 |
| Alpha | 34.93 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.852 |
| Beta Downside | 1.137 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 38.26% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.64 |
Description: EC Ecopetrol December 19, 2025
Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is Colombia’s largest integrated oil and gas company, operating across four business lines: Exploration & Production, Transport & Logistics, Refining & Petrochemicals, and Electric-Power Transmission & Toll-Road Concessions. The firm extracts crude and natural gas, moves these commodities through its pipeline network, refines them at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena complexes, and also generates revenue from power-grid services and road-infrastructure contracts across Colombia and internationally.
Key performance indicators (as of FY 2023) include ≈ 850 kboe/d of net production, a refining capacity of ≈ 340 kbpd, and a consolidated revenue of ≈ US$ 15 billion. Ecopetrol’s earnings are highly sensitive to Brent crude price movements (≈ 30 % of net income exposure) and to Colombia’s fiscal regime, which imposes a 30 % corporate tax plus a 10 % “oil windfall” tax when prices exceed US$ 70 /bbl. The company’s logistics segment benefits from the country’s growing demand for diesel and jet fuel, while its power-transmission arm is positioned to capture incremental cash flow from Colombia’s 2024-2027 renewable-energy integration targets.
For a deeper, data-driven valuation of Ecopetrol and its exposure to commodity cycles, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: 11399.00b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.67 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 16.44% < 20% (prev 19.13%; Δ -2.69% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 31101.19b > Net Income 11399.00b |
| Net Debt (103906.00b) to EBITDA (43123.76b): 2.41 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.53 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.06b) vs 12m ago 0.05% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 34.64% > 18% (prev 0.33%; Δ 3430 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 42.99% > 50% (prev 44.52%; Δ -1.53% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.79 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 43123.76b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b) |
Altman Z'' 1.93
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b - Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b) / Total Assets 291872.00b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 39228.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 26466.45b / Avg Total Assets 292291.65b) |
| D: 0.40 (Book Value of Equity 74106.00b / Total Liabilities 184862.00b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.93 = BBB |
Beneish M -2.67
| DSRI: 1.61 (Receivables 31471.00b/20255.96b, Revenue 125666.00b/130316.96b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 34.64% / 33.46%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 125666.00b / 130316.96b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 11399.00b - CFO 31101.19b) / TA 291872.00b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of EC shares?
As of February 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 12.31 with a total of 3,355,024 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.92%, over one month by +20.45%, over three months by +30.40% and over the past year by +50.19%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.92%, over one month by +20.45%, over three months by +30.40% and over the past year by +50.19%.
Is EC a buy, sell or hold?
Ecopetrol has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.55.
Therefor, it is recommend to hold EC.
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 3
What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 9.9 | -19.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 9.9 | -19.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 17.8 | 44.2% |
EC Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
Market Cap COP = 99129.18b (26.97b USD * 3675.97 USD.COP)
P/E Trailing = 9.4511
P/E Forward = 7.8678
P/S = 0.7718
P/B = 1.2017
P/EG = 0.3
Revenue TTM = 125666.00b COP
EBIT TTM = 26466.45b COP
EBITDA TTM = 43123.76b COP
Long Term Debt = 101815.00b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12455.00b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 114270.00b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 103906.00b COP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 208107.18b COP (99129.18b + Debt 114270.00b - CCE 5292.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.79 (Ebit TTM 26466.45b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b)
EV/FCF = 14.04x (Enterprise Value 208107.18b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
FCF Yield = 7.12% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Enterprise Value 208107.18b)
FCF Margin = 11.79% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Net Margin = 9.07% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Gross Margin = 34.64% ((Revenue TTM 125666.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 82141.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 28.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 208107.18b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 2235.61b / Debt 114270.00b)
Taxrate = 31.23% (1710.00b / 5476.00b)
NOPAT = 18201.73b (EBIT 26466.45b * (1 - 31.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b / Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b)
Debt / Equity = 1.42 (Debt 114270.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 80714.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.41 (Net Debt 103906.00b / EBITDA 43123.76b)
Debt / FCF = 7.01 (Net Debt 103906.00b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 85586.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.90% (Net Income 11399.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
RoE = 13.32% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 85586.47b)
RoCE = 14.12% (EBIT 26466.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 85586.47b + L.T.Debt 101815.00b))
RoIC = 9.28% (NOPAT 18201.73b / Invested Capital 196198.61b)
WACC = 4.92% (E(99129.18b)/V(213399.18b) * Re(9.05%) + D(114270.00b)/V(213399.18b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 9.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.24% ; FCFF base≈20309.62b ; Y1≈14572.62b ; Y5≈7944.03b
Fair Price DCF = 70.5k (EV 248761.82b - Net Debt 103906.00b = Equity 144855.82b / Shares 2.06b; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -33.24% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-33.24%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -28.48 | EPS CAGR: -94.86% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -56.89 | Revenue CAGR: -1.65% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.27 | Chg30d=-0.177 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+5.9% | Growth Revenue=-7.2%
P/E Trailing = 9.4511
P/E Forward = 7.8678
P/S = 0.7718
P/B = 1.2017
P/EG = 0.3
Revenue TTM = 125666.00b COP
EBIT TTM = 26466.45b COP
EBITDA TTM = 43123.76b COP
Long Term Debt = 101815.00b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12455.00b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 114270.00b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 103906.00b COP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 208107.18b COP (99129.18b + Debt 114270.00b - CCE 5292.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.79 (Ebit TTM 26466.45b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b)
EV/FCF = 14.04x (Enterprise Value 208107.18b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
FCF Yield = 7.12% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Enterprise Value 208107.18b)
FCF Margin = 11.79% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Net Margin = 9.07% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Gross Margin = 34.64% ((Revenue TTM 125666.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 82141.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 28.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.71 (Enterprise Value 208107.18b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 2235.61b / Debt 114270.00b)
Taxrate = 31.23% (1710.00b / 5476.00b)
NOPAT = 18201.73b (EBIT 26466.45b * (1 - 31.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b / Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b)
Debt / Equity = 1.42 (Debt 114270.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 80714.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.41 (Net Debt 103906.00b / EBITDA 43123.76b)
Debt / FCF = 7.01 (Net Debt 103906.00b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 85586.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.90% (Net Income 11399.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
RoE = 13.32% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 85586.47b)
RoCE = 14.12% (EBIT 26466.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 85586.47b + L.T.Debt 101815.00b))
RoIC = 9.28% (NOPAT 18201.73b / Invested Capital 196198.61b)
WACC = 4.92% (E(99129.18b)/V(213399.18b) * Re(9.05%) + D(114270.00b)/V(213399.18b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 9.05% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.24% ; FCFF base≈20309.62b ; Y1≈14572.62b ; Y5≈7944.03b
Fair Price DCF = 70.5k (EV 248761.82b - Net Debt 103906.00b = Equity 144855.82b / Shares 2.06b; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -33.24% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-33.24%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: -28.48 | EPS CAGR: -94.86% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -56.89 | Revenue CAGR: -1.65% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.27 | Chg30d=-0.177 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+5.9% | Growth Revenue=-7.2%