Overview Dividends

(EC) Ecopetrol - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Colombia • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US2791581091

Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel, Lpg

Integrated Oil & Gas
Market Cap in USD: 20,059m
IPO / Inception: 2007-08-27
Return 12m vs S&P 500: 20.7%

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS (Earnings per Share) of EC over the last years for every Quarter: "2020-12": 0.09, "2021-03": 0.42, "2021-06": 0.49, "2021-09": 0.48, "2021-12": 0.76, "2022-03": 3516.92, "2022-06": 1.3, "2022-09": 1.06, "2022-12": 0.69, "2023-03": 3028.52, "2023-06": 0.45, "2023-09": 0.61, "2023-12": 0.51, "2024-03": 0.5, "2024-06": 0.42, "2024-09": 0.3997, "2024-12": 0.4356, "2025-03": 0.3632, "2025-06": 905.83, "2025-09": 0.52,
EPS CAGR: -9.62%
EPS Trend: -19.6%
Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Revenue of EC over the last years for every Quarter: 2020-12: 14190000, 2021-03: 17206000, 2021-06: 19444000, 2021-09: 23333000, 2021-12: 31761000, 2022-03: 32472744, 2022-06: 43885000, 2022-09: 43438000, 2022-12: 39712284, 2023-03: 38854000, 2023-06: 34300000, 2023-09: 35130000, 2023-12: 31780961, 2024-03: 31302000, 2024-06: 32627000, 2024-09: 34607000, 2024-12: 34792000, 2025-03: 31365000, 2025-06: 29669000, 2025-09: 29840000,
Rev. CAGR: -1.65%
Rev. Trend: -56.9%
Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield 16.42%
Yield on Cost 5y 23.05%
Yield CAGR 5y 15.14%
Payout Consistency 65.4%
Payout Ratio 0.2%
Risk via 5d forecast
Volatility 29.6%
Value at Risk 5%th 48.0%
Relative Tail Risk -1.52%
Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio 1.03
Alpha 24.90
CAGR/Max DD 0.41
Character TTM
Hurst Exponent 0.448
Beta 0.806
Beta Downside 1.184
Drawdowns 3y
Max DD 38.26%
Mean DD 11.86%
Median DD 9.71%

Description: EC Ecopetrol December 19, 2025

Ec​opetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is Colombia’s largest integrated oil and gas company, operating across four business lines: Exploration & Production, Transport & Logistics, Refining & Petrochemicals, and Electric-Power Transmission & Toll-Road Concessions. The firm extracts crude and natural gas, moves these commodities through its pipeline network, refines them at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena complexes, and also generates revenue from power-grid services and road-infrastructure contracts across Colombia and internationally.

Key performance indicators (as of FY 2023) include ≈ 850 kboe/d of net production, a refining capacity of ≈ 340 kbpd, and a consolidated revenue of ≈ US$ 15 billion. Ec​opetrol’s earnings are highly sensitive to Brent crude price movements (≈ 30 % of net income exposure) and to Colombia’s fiscal regime, which imposes a 30 % corporate tax plus a 10 % “oil windfall” tax when prices exceed US$ 70 /bbl. The company’s logistics segment benefits from the country’s growing demand for diesel and jet fuel, while its power-transmission arm is positioned to capture incremental cash flow from Colombia’s 2024-2027 renewable-energy integration targets.

For a deeper, data-driven valuation of Ecopetrol and its exposure to commodity cycles, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth exploring.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5

Net Income (11399.00b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 7539.96b TTM)
FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.67pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)
NWC/Revenue 16.44% (prev 19.13%; Δ -2.69pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)
CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 31101.19b > Net Income 11399.00b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)
Net Debt (103906.00b) to EBITDA (43123.76b) ratio: 2.41 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)
Current Ratio 1.53 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)
Outstanding Shares last Quarter (2.06b) change vs 12m ago 0.05% (target <= -2.0% for YES)
Gross Margin 34.64% (prev 33.46%; Δ 1.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)
Asset Turnover 42.99% (prev 44.52%; Δ -1.53pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)
Interest Coverage Ratio 5.79 (EBITDA TTM 43123.76b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.93

(A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 59770.00b - Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b) / Total Assets 291872.00b
(B) 0.13 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 39228.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b
(C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 26466.45b / Avg Total Assets 292291.65b
(D) 0.40 = Book Value of Equity 74106.00b / Total Liabilities 184862.00b
Total Rating: 1.93 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 61.15

1. Piotroski 6.50pt
2. FCF Yield 7.97%
3. FCF Margin 11.79%
4. Debt/Equity 1.42
5. Debt/Ebitda 2.41
6. ROIC - WACC (= 4.85)%
7. RoE 13.32%
8. Rev. Trend -56.89%
9. EPS Trend -19.57%

What is the price of EC shares?

As of December 21, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 9.21 with a total of 2,000,343 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.34%, over one month by -11.78%, over three months by +3.72% and over the past year by +41.86%.

Is EC a buy, sell or hold?

Ecopetrol has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.55. Therefor, it is recommend to hold EC.
  • Strong Buy: 1
  • Buy: 0
  • Hold: 6
  • Sell: 1
  • Strong Sell: 3

What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?

Issuer Target Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price 9.6 3.7%
Analysts Target Price 9.6 3.7%
ValueRay Target Price 12.2 32.8%

EC Fundamental Data Overview December 19, 2025

Market Cap COP = 77048.42b (20.06b USD * 3841.1196 USD.COP)
P/E Trailing = 7.1923
P/E Forward = 5.8582
P/S = 0.5873
P/B = 0.9144
P/EG = 0.3
Beta = 0.17
Revenue TTM = 125666.00b COP
EBIT TTM = 26466.45b COP
EBITDA TTM = 43123.76b COP
Long Term Debt = 101815.00b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12455.00b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 114270.00b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 103906.00b COP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 186026.42b COP (77048.42b + Debt 114270.00b - CCE 5292.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.79 (Ebit TTM 26466.45b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b)
FCF Yield = 7.97% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Enterprise Value 186026.42b)
FCF Margin = 11.79% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Net Margin = 9.07% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Gross Margin = 34.64% ((Revenue TTM 125666.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 82141.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 28.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.64 (Enterprise Value 186026.42b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 2235.61b / Debt 114270.00b)
Taxrate = 31.23% (1710.00b / 5476.00b)
NOPAT = 18201.73b (EBIT 26466.45b * (1 - 31.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b / Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b)
Debt / Equity = 1.42 (Debt 114270.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 80714.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.41 (Net Debt 103906.00b / EBITDA 43123.76b)
Debt / FCF = 7.01 (Net Debt 103906.00b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 85586.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.91% (Net Income 11399.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
RoE = 13.32% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 85586.47b)
RoCE = 14.12% (EBIT 26466.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 85586.47b + L.T.Debt 101815.00b))
RoIC = 9.28% (NOPAT 18201.73b / Invested Capital 196198.61b)
WACC = 4.42% (E(77048.42b)/V(191318.42b) * Re(8.99%) + D(114270.00b)/V(191318.42b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 8.99% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 81.65 | Cagr: 0.00%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.41% ; FCFE base≈20309.62b ; Y1≈14574.98b ; Y5≈7963.34b
Fair Price DCF = 63.3k (DCF Value 130144.50b / Shares Outstanding 2.06b; 5y FCF grow -33.24% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -19.57 | EPS CAGR: -9.62% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -56.89 | Revenue CAGR: -1.65% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.45 | Chg30d=+0.032 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+22.1% | Growth Revenue=-5.6%

Additional Sources for EC Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
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