(EC) Ecopetrol - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Colombia • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US2791581091

Stock: Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel, LPG

Total Rating 51

Risk 80

Buy Signal -0.35

Oil & Gas Integrated » Integrated Oil & Gas
Age: 18.5y

Market Cap: 25,529m
Avg Trading Vol: 42.5M USD

ATR: 3.90%
Peers RS (IBD): 57.89

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	31.1%
Relative Tail Risk	-1.44%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	0.93
Alpha	31.90

Character TTM
Beta	0.884
Beta Downside	1.173

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	38.26%
CAGR/Max DD	0.65

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -94.86%
EPS Trend: -28.5%

Last SUE: -4.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: -1.65%
Rev. Trend: -56.9%

Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Description: EC Ecopetrol February 13, 2026

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is Colombia’s state-controlled integrated energy producer. It operates four distinct segments: (1) Exploration & Production – upstream oil-and-gas discovery and extraction; (2) Transport & Logistics – pipelines and terminals moving crude, refined fuels, diesel, jet fuel and biofuels; (3) Refining & Petrochemicals – two primary refineries in Barrancabermeja and Cartagena that also handle natural-gas and LPG distribution; and (4) Electric Power Transmission & Toll-Road Concessions – ownership of transmission grids, telecom services and the design, construction and operation of road and energy-infrastructure projects across Colombia and abroad.

Key recent metrics (as of Q1 2024): production averaged ~540 k bbl/d, a 3 % rise YoY driven by higher output from the Castilla-Marañón field; net profit was $1.2 bn, reflecting a 15 % margin improvement as crude prices hovered around $80 /bbl and operating costs fell 4 %; and the leverage ratio (net debt/EBITDA) stood at 0.62, down from 0.78 a year earlier, indicating a strengthening balance sheet. The segment most sensitive to macro-risk is Exploration & Production, where Colombian fiscal reforms (e.g., the 2023 “oil tax” reduction) and global oil-price volatility remain primary drivers of earnings volatility.

For a deeper, data-driven valuation framework-including scenario analysis on oil-price paths and Colombian fiscal policy-consult the detailed model on ValueRay.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5

Net Income: 11399.00b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.67 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 16.44% < 20% (prev 19.13%; Δ -2.69% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 31101.19b > Net Income 11399.00b
Net Debt (103906.00b) to EBITDA (43123.76b): 2.41 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.53 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (2.06b) vs 12m ago 0.05% < -2%
Gross Margin: 34.64% > 18% (prev 0.33%; Δ 3430 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 42.99% > 50% (prev 44.52%; Δ -1.53% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 5.79 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 43123.76b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b)

Altman Z'' 1.93

A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b - Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b) / Total Assets 291872.00b
B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 39228.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 26466.45b / Avg Total Assets 292291.65b)
D: 0.40 (Book Value of Equity 74106.00b / Total Liabilities 184862.00b)
Altman-Z'' Score: 1.93 = BBB

Beneish M -2.67

DSRI: 1.61 (Receivables 31471.00b/20255.96b, Revenue 125666.00b/130316.96b)
GMI: 0.97 (GM 34.64% / 33.46%)
AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.29)
SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 125666.00b / 130316.96b)
TATA: -0.07 (NI 11399.00b - CFO 31101.19b) / TA 291872.00b)
Beneish M-Score: -2.67 (Cap -4..+1) = A

What is the price of EC shares?

As of February 17, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 11.90 with a total of 1,466,400 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.25%, over one month by -2.86%, over three months by +13.12% and over the past year by +28.97%.

Is EC a buy, sell or hold?

Ecopetrol has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.55. Therefor, it is recommend to hold EC.

StrongBuy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 6
Sell: 1
StrongSell: 3

What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	9.9	-16.6%
Analysts Target Price	9.9	-16.6%

EC Fundamental Data Overview February 15, 2026

Market Cap COP = 93219.20b (25.53b USD * 3651.4399 USD.COP)
P/E Trailing = 8.8148
P/E Forward = 7.4405
P/S = 0.7245
P/B = 1.128
P/EG = 0.3
Revenue TTM = 125666.00b COP
EBIT TTM = 26466.45b COP
EBITDA TTM = 43123.76b COP
Long Term Debt = 101815.00b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12455.00b COP (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 114270.00b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 103906.00b COP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 202197.20b COP (93219.20b + Debt 114270.00b - CCE 5292.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 5.79 (Ebit TTM 26466.45b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b)
EV/FCF = 13.64x (Enterprise Value 202197.20b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
FCF Yield = 7.33% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Enterprise Value 202197.20b)
FCF Margin = 11.79% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Net Margin = 9.07% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Gross Margin = 34.64% ((Revenue TTM 125666.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 82141.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 28.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.69 (Enterprise Value 202197.20b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.96% (Interest Expense 2235.61b / Debt 114270.00b)
Taxrate = 31.23% (1710.00b / 5476.00b)
NOPAT = 18201.73b (EBIT 26466.45b * (1 - 31.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b / Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b)
Debt / Equity = 1.42 (Debt 114270.00b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 80714.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.41 (Net Debt 103906.00b / EBITDA 43123.76b)
Debt / FCF = 7.01 (Net Debt 103906.00b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 85586.47b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.90% (Net Income 11399.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
RoE = 13.32% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 85586.47b)
RoCE = 14.12% (EBIT 26466.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 85586.47b + L.T.Debt 101815.00b))
RoIC = 9.28% (NOPAT 18201.73b / Invested Capital 196198.61b)
WACC = 4.86% (E(93219.20b)/V(207489.20b) * Re(9.17%) + D(114270.00b)/V(207489.20b) * Rd(1.96%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 9.17% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.24% ; FCFF base≈20309.62b ; Y1≈14572.62b ; Y5≈7944.03b
Fair Price DCF = 70.5k (EV 248761.82b - Net Debt 103906.00b = Equity 144855.82b / Shares 2.06b; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -33.24% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -28.48 | EPS CAGR: -94.86% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -56.89 | Revenue CAGR: -1.65% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.21 | Chg30d=-0.205 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=+2.7% | Growth Revenue=-6.3%

Additional Sources for EC Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle