Overview Dividends

(EC) Ecopetrol - Ratings and Ratios

Exchange: NYSE • Country: Colombia • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US2791581091

Crude, Natural Gas, Diesel, Jet Fuel, LPG

EC EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS Growth (3y CAGR): -9.77%
EPS Trend (3y Corr): -7.1%

Last SUE: -0.01σ

EC Revenue

Revenue Growth (3y CAGR): -9.87%
Revenue Trend (3y Corr): -80.0%

Last SUE: -0.01σ

Risk via 10d forecast
Volatility	31.5%
Value at Risk 5%th	51.0%
Relative Tail Risk	-1.64%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	1.36
Alpha	56.68

Character TTM
Hurst Exponent	0.429
Beta	0.798
Beta Downside	1.199

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	38.26%
Mean DD	11.89%
Median DD	10.00%

Description: EC Ecopetrol October 16, 2025

Ecopetrol S.A. (NYSE: EC) is Colombia’s largest integrated oil and gas company, operating across four core segments: Exploration & Production, Transport & Logistics, Refining & Petrochemicals, and Electric Power Transmission & Toll-Road Concessions. The firm extracts and produces crude oil and natural gas, moves these and refined products through its pipeline network, refines at the Barrancabermeja and Cartagena complexes, and manages a portfolio of power-transmission lines and toll-road assets.

The company’s footprint extends beyond Colombia to other South-American markets, the United States, Central America, the Caribbean, Europe, and Asia, giving it exposure to multiple currency regimes and regional demand dynamics.

Key recent metrics (2023-2024) include an average crude output of roughly 800 k bbl/d, refining capacity of about 370 k bbl/d, a debt-to-equity ratio near 0.6, and a dividend yield that has hovered around 6 %-all of which are benchmarked against peers in the Integrated Oil & Gas GICS sub-industry. The firm’s cash-flow generation remains highly sensitive to Brent-linked oil prices and to the Colombian peso’s exchange rate, which together drive earnings volatility.

Primary economic drivers are the global oil price environment (particularly OPEC+ production decisions), domestic Colombian consumption trends, and the regulatory framework governing concessions for toll roads and power transmission. A shift toward renewable energy and stricter emissions standards could pressure the Refining & Petrochemicals segment, while the Transport & Logistics arm benefits from any increase in crude-oil throughput.

For a deeper, data-driven view of Ecopetrol’s valuation and risk profile, you may find the analysis on ValueRay worth a look.

EC Stock Overview

Market Cap in USD	20,579m
Sub-Industry	Integrated Oil & Gas
IPO / Inception	2007-08-27
Return 12m vs S&P 500	32.1%
Analyst Rating	2.55 of 5

EC Dividends

Metric	Value
Dividend Yield	14.37%
Yield on Cost 5y	25.37%
Yield CAGR 5y	15.14%
Payout Consistency	65.4%
Payout Ratio	0.2%

EC Growth Ratios

Metric	Value
CAGR 3y	22.73%
CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio	0.59
CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio	1.91
Current Volume	2005.9k
Average Volume	2190.3k

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0

Net Income (11399.00b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 7539.96b TTM)

FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -4.67pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp)

NWC/Revenue 16.44% (prev 19.13%; Δ -2.69pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp)

CFO/TA 0.11 (>3.0%) and CFO 31101.19b > Net Income 11399.00b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%)

Net Debt (103906.00b) to EBITDA (31718.76b) ratio: 3.28 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5)

Current Ratio 1.53 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active)

Outstanding Shares last Quarter (41.12b) change vs 12m ago 1901 % (target <= -2.0% for YES)

Gross Margin 34.64% (prev 33.46%; Δ 1.17pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0)

Asset Turnover 42.99% (prev 44.52%; Δ -1.53pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0)

Interest Coverage Ratio 4.19 (EBITDA TTM 31718.76b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3)

Altman Z'' 1.79

(A) 0.07 = (Total Current Assets 59770.00b - Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b) / Total Assets 291872.00b

(B) 0.14 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 40524.96b / Total Assets 291872.00b

(D) 0.42 = Book Value of Equity 77089.20b / Total Liabilities 184862.00b

Total Rating: 1.79 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D)

ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 55.07

1. Piotroski 6.0pt = 1.0

2. FCF Yield 7.93% = 3.97

3. FCF Margin 11.79% = 2.95

4. Debt/Equity 1.49 = 1.49

5. Debt/Ebitda 3.28 = -2.11

6. ROIC - WACC (= 2.42)% = 3.02

7. RoE 13.32% = 1.11

8. Rev. Trend -79.96% = -6.00

9. EPS Trend -7.15% = -0.36

What is the price of EC shares?

As of November 18, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 10.52 with a total of 2,005,937 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.48%, over one month by +16.37%, over three months by +18.87% and over the past year by +51.31%.

Is EC a buy, sell or hold?

Ecopetrol has received a consensus analysts rating of 2.55. Therefor, it is recommend to hold EC.

Strong Buy: 1
Buy: 0
Hold: 6
Sell: 1
Strong Sell: 3

What are the forecasts/targets for the EC price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	9.5	-10.2%
Analysts Target Price	9.5	-10.2%
ValueRay Target Price	14.2	34.9%

EC Fundamental Data Overview November 16, 2025

Market Cap COP = 77228.53b (20.58b USD * 3752.8006 USD.COP)
P/E Trailing = 6.8562
P/E Forward = 6.25
P/S = 0.0002
P/B = 0.9991
P/EG = 0.3
Beta = 0.184
Revenue TTM = 125666.00b COP
EBIT TTM = 19131.45b COP
EBITDA TTM = 31718.76b COP
Long Term Debt = 101815.00b COP (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12455.00b COP (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 119965.03b COP (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = 103906.00b COP (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 186829.56b COP (77228.53b + Debt 119965.03b - CCE 10364.00b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.19 (Ebit TTM 19131.45b / Interest Expense TTM 4570.34b)
FCF Yield = 7.93% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Enterprise Value 186829.56b)
FCF Margin = 11.79% (FCF TTM 14821.44b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Net Margin = 9.07% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Revenue TTM 125666.00b)
Gross Margin = 34.64% ((Revenue TTM 125666.00b - Cost of Revenue TTM 82141.00b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.41% (prev 28.68%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.64 (Enterprise Value 186829.56b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.86% (Interest Expense 2235.61b / Debt 119965.03b)
Taxrate = 31.23% (1710.00b / 5476.00b)
NOPAT = 13157.24b (EBIT 19131.45b * (1 - 31.23%))
Current Ratio = 1.53 (Total Current Assets 59770.00b / Total Current Liabilities 39110.00b)
Debt / Equity = 1.49 (Debt 119965.03b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 80714.00b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.28 (Net Debt 103906.00b / EBITDA 31718.76b)
Debt / FCF = 7.01 (Net Debt 103906.00b / FCF TTM 14821.44b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 85586.48b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 3.91% (Net Income 11399.00b / Total Assets 291872.00b)
RoE = 13.32% (Net Income TTM 11399.00b / Total Stockholder Equity 85586.48b)
RoCE = 10.21% (EBIT 19131.45b / Capital Employed (Equity 85586.48b + L.T.Debt 101815.00b))
RoIC = 6.71% (NOPAT 13157.24b / Invested Capital 196198.61b)
WACC = 4.29% (E(77228.53b)/V(197193.56b) * Re(8.96%) + D(119965.03b)/V(197193.56b) * Rd(1.86%) * (1-Tc(0.31)))
Discount Rate = 8.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 0.0 | Cagr: 0.0%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 68.54% ; FCFE base≈20309.62b ; Y1≈14574.98b ; Y5≈7963.34b
Fair Price DCF = 63.6k (DCF Value 130744.40b / Shares Outstanding 2.06b; 5y FCF grow -33.24% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -7.15 | EPS CAGR: -9.77% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -79.96 | Revenue CAGR: -9.87% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0

Additional Sources for EC Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle