(ERO) Ero Copper - Overview
Stock: Copper, Gold, Silver
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 68.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.18% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.74 |
| Alpha | 121.41 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.313 |
| Beta Downside | 1.623 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 59.84% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.46 |
Description: ERO Ero Copper January 15, 2026
Ero Copper Corp. (NYSE: ERO) is a Vancouver-based miner that focuses on exploration, development, and production of copper projects in Brazil. Its primary asset is the Caraíba operation in Bahia State, which extracts and sells copper concentrate while also generating gold and silver as by-products. The company was incorporated in 2016.
As of the latest quarterly release (Q4 2023), Caraíba produced roughly 55 kt of copper concentrate, translating to an estimated cash cost of US$1.95 per lb of copper, which is modest relative to the sector average of about US$2.30 per lb. The plant’s by-product credits contributed an additional US$0.15 per lb, improving overall profitability. ERO’s balance sheet shows a net debt of approximately US$250 million, giving a net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio near 2.0×, a level that investors typically view as manageable for a junior miner with a single operating asset. Key macro drivers include the ongoing global copper deficit-driven by electrification and renewable-energy deployment-and Brazil’s relatively stable mining regulatory environment, though any policy shift could materially affect operating permits.
For a deeper dive into ERO’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might explore the detailed model on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 137.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 18.47 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -7.67% < 20% (prev -13.12%; Δ 5.45% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 314.0m > Net Income 137.8m |
| Net Debt (571.6m) to EBITDA (292.1m): 1.96 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.82 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.0m) vs 12m ago 0.07% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 39.72% > 18% (prev 0.37%; Δ 3935 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 34.73% > 50% (prev 30.69%; Δ 4.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 14.47 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 292.1m / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m) |
Altman Z'' 2.67
| A: -0.02 (Total Current Assets 207.2m - Total Current Liabilities 252.3m) / Total Assets 1.87b |
| B: 0.36 (Retained Earnings 667.2m / Total Assets 1.87b) |
| C: 0.11 (EBIT TTM 184.0m / Avg Total Assets 1.69b) |
| D: 0.89 (Book Value of Equity 874.3m / Total Liabilities 983.9m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.67 = A |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 0.47 (Receivables 30.1m/51.0m, Revenue 588.2m/464.1m) |
| GMI: 0.92 (GM 39.72% / 36.63%) |
| AQI: 1.55 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.02) |
| SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 588.2m / 464.1m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 137.8m - CFO 314.0m) / TA 1.87b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of ERO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.08%, over one month by +8.54%, over three months by +43.69% and over the past year by +128.89%.
Is ERO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the ERO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.5 | 11.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.5 | 11.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 35.6 | 11.9% |
ERO Fundamental Data Overview February 09, 2026
P/E Forward = 7.148
P/S = 5.4199
P/B = 3.5927
Revenue TTM = 588.2m USD
EBIT TTM = 184.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 292.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 561.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 67.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 637.8m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 571.6m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.76b USD (3.19b + Debt 637.8m - CCE 66.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 14.47 (Ebit TTM 184.0m / Interest Expense TTM 12.7m)
EV/FCF = 114.6x (Enterprise Value 3.76b / FCF TTM 32.8m)
FCF Yield = 0.87% (FCF TTM 32.8m / Enterprise Value 3.76b)
FCF Margin = 5.58% (FCF TTM 32.8m / Revenue TTM 588.2m)
Net Margin = 23.43% (Net Income TTM 137.8m / Revenue TTM 588.2m)
Gross Margin = 39.72% ((Revenue TTM 588.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 354.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 33.02% (prev 41.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.01 (Enterprise Value 3.76b / Total Assets 1.87b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.31% (Interest Expense 8.34m / Debt 637.8m)
Taxrate = 25.92% (12.8m / 49.3m)
NOPAT = 136.3m (EBIT 184.0m * (1 - 25.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.82 (Total Current Assets 207.2m / Total Current Liabilities 252.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.72 (Debt 637.8m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 884.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.96 (Net Debt 571.6m / EBITDA 292.1m)
Debt / FCF = 17.43 (Net Debt 571.6m / FCF TTM 32.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 752.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.14% (Net Income 137.8m / Total Assets 1.87b)
RoE = 18.32% (Net Income TTM 137.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 752.1m)
RoCE = 14.01% (EBIT 184.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 752.1m + L.T.Debt 561.1m))
RoIC = 9.92% (NOPAT 136.3m / Invested Capital 1.37b)
WACC = 9.12% (E(3.19b)/V(3.83b) * Re(10.75%) + D(637.8m)/V(3.83b) * Rd(1.31%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.75% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.60%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.32% ; FCFF base≈32.8m ; Y1≈21.5m ; Y5≈9.82m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 160.8m - Net Debt 571.6m = -410.7m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 0.03 | EPS CAGR: -12.70% | SUE: -2.95 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 58.07 | Revenue CAGR: 7.63% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.99 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.14 | Chg30d=+0.309 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+96.2% | Growth Revenue=+53.0%