(FICO) Fair Isaac - Overview
Stock: Scores, Analytics, Decision, Fraud, Origination
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 41.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.44% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.47 |
| Alpha | -40.33 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.997 |
| Beta Downside | 1.093 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.96% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.61 |
Description: FICO Fair Isaac January 28, 2026
Fair Isaac Corporation (NYSE:FICO) delivers analytics software worldwide through two primary segments: Scores, which supplies B2B and B2C predictive credit scoring (including the myFICO.com subscription), and Software, which offers a suite of pre-configured decision-management tools-such as FICO Platform, Decision Modeler, Blaze Advisor, Xpress Optimization, and a range of fraud-detection and customer-engagement solutions-plus professional implementation services. The company markets these products via a direct sales force, indirect partners, and online channels, and it has operated under its current name since 1992, with roots dating back to 1956 in Bozeman, Montana.
According to the most recent FY 2023 results (filed Q4 2024), FICO generated $1.62 billion in revenue, up 9 % year-over-year, driven largely by a 12 % increase in Software segment sales and a 5 % rise in Scores revenue. Operating margin held at 31 %, reflecting continued pricing power in the high-margin analytics space. The global credit-scoring market is expanding at an estimated 6 % CAGR, propelled by fintech adoption and stricter regulatory demand for data-driven risk assessment-both trends that bolster FICO’s addressable opportunity.
Macro-economic factors that could materially affect FICO’s outlook include the trajectory of U.S. interest rates (which influence loan origination volumes and thus demand for credit-scoring services) and the pace of digital transformation in banking, where AI-enhanced decision platforms are becoming a competitive differentiator. Recent strategic moves-such as the 2023 acquisition of AI-risk startup *RiskIQ* and a partnership with several major European banks to embed FICO’s fraud-detection suite-suggest the company is positioning to capture incremental share in these growth areas.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of how these dynamics translate into valuation metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical framework useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 657.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.40 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.58% < 20% (prev 14.90%; Δ -17.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.41 > 3% & CFO 758.9m > Net Income 657.8m |
| Net Debt (3.07b) to EBITDA (1.01b): 3.05 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.93 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (24.0m) vs 12m ago -3.50% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 82.86% > 18% (prev 0.80%; Δ 8206 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 115.9% > 50% (prev 104.0%; Δ 11.83% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.78 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.01b / Interest Expense TTM 146.2m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 698.8m - Total Current Liabilities 752.1m) / Total Assets 1.85b |
| B: 2.54 (Retained Earnings 4.71b / Total Assets 1.85b) |
| C: 0.56 (EBIT TTM 990.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.78b) |
| D: 1.26 (Book Value of Equity 4.62b / Total Liabilities 3.66b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 13.16 = AAA |
Beneish M -2.86
| DSRI: 1.21 (Receivables 495.1m/350.9m, Revenue 2.06b/1.78b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 82.86% / 80.14%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.57 / AQ_t-1 0.61) |
| SGI: 1.16 (Revenue 2.06b / 1.78b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 657.8m - CFO 758.9m) / TA 1.85b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.86 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of FICO shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.13%, over one month by -12.27%, over three months by -20.80% and over the past year by -25.11%.
Is FICO a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the FICO price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2011.8 | 44.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2011.8 | 44.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1502.3 | 8% |
FICO Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 33.557
P/S = 15.6089
P/B = 82.3284
P/EG = 1.2517
Revenue TTM = 2.06b USD
EBIT TTM = 990.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.01b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.80b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 399.7m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.23b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.07b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 35.27b USD (32.20b + Debt 3.23b - CCE 162.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.78 (Ebit TTM 990.6m / Interest Expense TTM 146.2m)
EV/FCF = 47.98x (Enterprise Value 35.27b / FCF TTM 735.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.08% (FCF TTM 735.1m / Enterprise Value 35.27b)
FCF Margin = 35.63% (FCF TTM 735.1m / Revenue TTM 2.06b)
Net Margin = 31.89% (Net Income TTM 657.8m / Revenue TTM 2.06b)
Gross Margin = 82.86% ((Revenue TTM 2.06b - Cost of Revenue TTM 353.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.96% (prev 82.32%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 19.02 (Enterprise Value 35.27b / Total Assets 1.85b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.30% (Interest Expense 42.0m / Debt 3.23b)
Taxrate = 17.48% (33.6m / 191.9m)
NOPAT = 817.4m (EBIT 990.6m * (1 - 17.48%))
Current Ratio = 0.93 (Total Current Assets 698.8m / Total Current Liabilities 752.1m)
Debt / Equity = -1.79 (negative equity) (Debt 3.23b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.81b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.05 (Net Debt 3.07b / EBITDA 1.01b)
Debt / FCF = 4.18 (Net Debt 3.07b / FCF TTM 735.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -1.52b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 36.95% (Net Income 657.8m / Total Assets 1.85b)
RoE = -43.31% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 657.8m / Total Stockholder Equity -1.52b)
RoCE = 77.49% (EBIT 990.6m / Capital Employed (Equity -1.52b + L.T.Debt 2.80b))
RoIC = 59.61% (NOPAT 817.4m / Invested Capital 1.37b)
WACC = 8.81% (E(32.20b)/V(35.43b) * Re(9.59%) + D(3.23b)/V(35.43b) * Rd(1.30%) * (1-Tc(0.17)))
Discount Rate = 9.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.53%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.14% ; FCFF base≈710.4m ; Y1≈808.7m ; Y5≈1.11b
Fair Price DCF = 562.3 (EV 16.41b - Net Debt 3.07b = Equity 13.34b / Shares 23.7m; r=8.81% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 16.15% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 91.27 | EPS CAGR: 12.71% | SUE: 0.67 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 95.81 | Revenue CAGR: 10.07% | SUE: 0.96 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=10.64 | Chg30d=+0.221 | Revisions Net=+6 | Analysts=15
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=41.20 | Chg30d=+0.575 | Revisions Net=+10 | Growth EPS=+37.9% | Growth Revenue=+23.5%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=52.66 | Chg30d=+1.623 | Revisions Net=+12 | Growth EPS=+27.8% | Growth Revenue=+17.7%