FOUR Stock Analysis: Shift4 Payments | NYSE
Software - Infrastructure | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.036m USD | 12M Return: -54.1% | US82452J1097 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 85.3M
EPS Trend: 94.4%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 99.8%
Qual. Beats: 1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 6.3 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Shift4 Payments (NYSE: FOUR) is a U.S.-based provider of integrated payment processing and commerce software, founded in 1999 and headquartered in Center Valley, Pennsylvania. The company went public in 2020 and is classified within the Data Processing & Outsourced Services sub-industry. Its omnichannel platform supports a broad range of payment types, including credit, debit, contactless/EMV, QR Pay, and mobile wallets such as Apple Pay, Google Pay, Alipay, and WeChat Pay.
Beyond processing, Shift4 sells a suite of proprietary technology products targeted largely at the hospitality and restaurant verticals, including the SkyTab POS, Mobile, and Venue systems, the Lighthouse business intelligence suite, the Shift4Shop e-commerce platform, and The Giving Block, a cryptocurrency donation marketplace. It also offers merchant lifecycle services such as underwriting, onboarding, risk management, and support, and distributes its solutions through independent software vendors (ISVs), value-added resellers, and internal sales teams.
The company operates a vertically integrated business model that combines payment processing with purpose-built software, a structure common among modern commerce enablers serving mid-market merchants. Its reliance on ISV partnerships and software-led distribution is a key channel differentiator relative to traditional merchant acquirers.
- Global Blue acquisition accelerates international payment volume mix shift
- SkyTab restaurant POS adoption expands software-driven blended take rates
- Interest rate cuts pressure float income and processing margins
| Net Income: 90.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.11 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.55% < 20% (prev 63.33%; Δ -55.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 592.8m > Net Income 90.1m |
| Net Debt (4.27b) to EBITDA (912.9m): 4.67 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (79.6m) vs 12m ago -10.78% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.91% > 18% (prev 30.55%; Δ 5.36% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 60.96% > 50% (prev 51.65%; Δ 9.31% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.51 > 6 (EBIT TTM 379.8m / Interest Expense TTM 251.8m) |
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 2.07b - Total Current Liabilities 1.71b) / Total Assets 8.70b |
| B: -0.07 (Retained Earnings -648.0m / Total Assets 8.70b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 379.8m / Avg Total Assets 7.84b) |
| D: 0.23 (Book Value of Equity 1.62b / Total Liabilities 6.96b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.60 = B |
| DSRI: 1.64 (Receivables 809.0m/372.7m, Revenue 4.78b/3.61b) |
| GMI: 0.85 (GM 30.55% / 35.91%) |
| AQI: 1.70 (AQ_t 0.72 / AQ_t-1 0.42) |
| SGI: 1.32 (Revenue 4.78b / 3.61b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 90.1m - CFO 592.8m) / TA 8.70b) |
| Beneish M = -1.99 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
As of October 04, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 36.17 with a total of 1,680,006 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -5.93%, over one month by -18.22%, over three months by -29.56% and over the past year by -54.10%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 33.50 (which is 7.4% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Shift4 Payments has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.35. Therefore, it is recommended to buy FOUR.
- StrongBuy: 13
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 55.1 | 52.2% |
P/E Trailing = 60.0781
P/E Forward = 6.4103
P/S = 0.6349
P/B = 1.8769
P/EG = 0.2787
Revenue TTM = 4.78b USD
EBIT TTM = 379.8m USD
EBITDA TTM = 912.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.50b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 27.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 4.62b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 56.0m
Net Debt = 4.27b USD (calculated: Debt 4.62b - CCE 356.0m)
Enterprise Value = 7.30b USD (3.04b + Debt 4.62b - CCE 356.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.51 (Ebit TTM 379.8m / Interest Expense TTM 251.8m)
EV/FCF = 14.22x (Enterprise Value 7.30b / FCF TTM 513.5m)
FCF Yield = 7.03% (FCF TTM 513.5m / Enterprise Value 7.30b)
FCF Margin = 10.74% (FCF TTM 513.5m / Revenue TTM 4.78b)
Net Margin = 1.88% (Net Income TTM 90.1m / Revenue TTM 4.78b)
Gross Margin = 35.91% ((Revenue TTM 4.78b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.06b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 34.44% (prev 34.97%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 7.30b / Total Assets 8.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 5.45% (Interest Expense 251.8m / Debt 4.62b)
Taxrate = 19.74% (30.1m / 152.5m)
NOPAT = 304.8m (EBIT 379.8m * (1 - 19.74%))
Current Ratio = 1.21 (Total Current Assets 2.07b / Total Current Liabilities 1.71b)
Debt / Equity = 2.86 (Debt 4.62b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.62b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.67 (Net Debt 4.27b / EBITDA 912.9m)
Debt / FCF = 8.31 (Net Debt 4.27b / FCF TTM 513.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.60b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.15% (Net Income 90.1m / Total Assets 8.70b)
RoE = 5.65% (Net Income TTM 90.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.60b)
RoCE = 6.23% (EBIT 379.8m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.60b + L.T.Debt 4.50b))
RoIC = 4.50% (NOPAT 304.8m / Invested Capital 6.78b)
WACC = 6.77% (E(3.04b)/V(7.66b) * Re(10.41%) + D(4.62b)/V(7.66b) * Rd(5.45%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 10.41% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 7.61 | Cagr: 7.52%
[DCF] Terminal Value 76.04% ; FCFF base≈504.3m ; Y1≈526.1m ; Y5≈601.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 63.56 (EV 9.29b - Net Debt 4.27b = Equity 5.02b / Shares 79.0m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 4.71% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 94.42 | EPS CAGR: 29.71% | SUE: 0.21 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 99.83 | Revenue CAGR: 27.62% | SUE: 1.05 | # QB: 1
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=1.38 | Chg30d=-0.32% | Revisions=-78% | Analysts=22
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.21 | Chg30d=-0.09% | Revisions=-88% | GrowthEPS=+0.8% | GrowthRev=+22.4%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=6.20 | Chg30d=-0.55% | Revisions=-73% | GrowthEPS=+19.1% | GrowthRev=+14.0%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -87% (up=3, down=63)