(FPH) Five Point Holdings - Overview
Stock: Residential Land, Commercial Land, Development Services, Property Management
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -18.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.42 |
| Alpha | -29.16 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.826 |
| Beta Downside | 0.891 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 39.27% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.71 |
Description: FPH Five Point Holdings January 25, 2026
Five Point Holdings, LLC (NYSE: FPH) is a California-based developer and owner of mixed-use planned communities, with primary activities in Orange County, Los Angeles County, and San Francisco County. The firm operates through three geographic segments-Valencia, San Francisco, and Great Park-selling residential and commercial parcels to homebuilders and developers while also managing and owning office, R&D, and medical-campus properties.
Key recent metrics (Q4 2023): the company reported a 12% YoY increase in land-sale revenue to $112 million, and its commercial-property portfolio achieved an average occupancy of 94% with a weighted-average lease-up cost of $28 / sq ft, reflecting strong demand for office and life-science space in the Bay Area. The mixed-use pipeline now includes roughly 1.8 million sq ft of land inventory, valued at $1.4 billion, and the firm’s cash-flow conversion stood at 1.3×, above the REIT sector median of 1.0×.
Sector drivers that underpin Five Point’s outlook include the persistent housing shortage in California (new-home starts down 8% YoY) and the continued expansion of biotech and clean-tech clusters in the Bay Area, which are lifting demand for specialized commercial real estate. For a deeper dive into how these dynamics translate into valuation signals, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can help you assess the upside potential more rigorously.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 71.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.75 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2297 % < 20% (prev 1182 %; Δ 1115 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 > 3% & CFO 209.1m > Net Income 71.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 8.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (150.3m) vs 12m ago 2.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.38% > 18% (prev 0.50%; Δ 4788 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.48% > 50% (prev 7.73%; Δ -4.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.11 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -2.08m / Interest Expense TTM -238.7m) |
Altman Z'' 5.55
| A: 0.78 (Total Current Assets 2.87b - Total Current Liabilities 341.6m) / Total Assets 3.25b |
| B: 0.07 (Retained Earnings 228.0m / Total Assets 3.25b) |
| C: -0.01 (EBIT TTM -26.2m / Avg Total Assets 3.16b) |
| D: 0.26 (Book Value of Equity 226.5m / Total Liabilities 860.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.55 = AAA |
What is the price of FPH shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.77%, over one month by -8.44%, over three months by -15.70% and over the past year by -17.74%.
Is FPH a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the FPH price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 12 | 135.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 12 | 135.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4.8 | -6.7% |
FPH Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 7.082
P/B = 0.4471
Revenue TTM = 110.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -26.2m USD
EBITDA TTM = -2.08m USD
Long Term Debt = 444.5m USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = unknown (none)
Debt = 443.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 16.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 936.4m USD (918.6m + Debt 443.3m - CCE 425.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.11 (Ebit TTM -26.2m / Interest Expense TTM -238.7m)
EV/FCF = 4.48x (Enterprise Value 936.4m / FCF TTM 209.0m)
FCF Yield = 22.32% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Enterprise Value 936.4m)
FCF Margin = 190.0% (FCF TTM 209.0m / Revenue TTM 110.0m)
Net Margin = 64.50% (Net Income TTM 71.0m / Revenue TTM 110.0m)
Gross Margin = 48.38% ((Revenue TTM 110.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 56.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 45.91% (prev 47.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.29 (Enterprise Value 936.4m / Total Assets 3.25b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.59% (Interest Expense 7.06m / Debt 443.3m)
Taxrate = 13.13% (8.86m / 67.5m)
NOPAT = -22.8m (EBIT -26.2m * (1 - 13.13%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 8.40 (Total Current Assets 2.87b / Total Current Liabilities 341.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.53 (Debt 443.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 843.2m)
Debt / EBITDA = -8.06 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 16.8m / EBITDA -2.08m)
Debt / FCF = 0.08 (Net Debt 16.8m / FCF TTM 209.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 800.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.24% (Net Income 71.0m / Total Assets 3.25b)
RoE = 8.87% (Net Income TTM 71.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 800.0m)
RoCE = -2.11% (EBIT -26.2m / Capital Employed (Equity 800.0m + L.T.Debt 444.5m))
RoIC = -1.77% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -22.8m / Invested Capital 1.29b)
WACC = 6.49% (E(918.6m)/V(1.36b) * Re(8.96%) + D(443.3m)/V(1.36b) * Rd(1.59%) * (1-Tc(0.13)))
Discount Rate = 8.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.69%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.62% ; FCFF base≈133.8m ; Y1≈87.8m ; Y5≈40.1m
Fair Price DCF = 14.97 (EV 1.08b - Net Debt 16.8m = Equity 1.06b / Shares 71.0m; r=6.49% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
[DCF Warning] FCF declining rapidly (-40.0%), DCF may be unreliable
EPS Correlation: 34.04 | EPS CAGR: 127.6% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 42.58 | Revenue CAGR: 107.8% | SUE: 0.37 | # QB: 0