(GOOS) Canada Goose Holdings - Overview
Stock: Outerwear, Knitwear, Footwear, Accessories, Childrenswear
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 73.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.46 |
| Alpha | -10.66 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.056 |
| Beta Downside | 0.515 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.84% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.25 |
Description: GOOS Canada Goose Holdings January 20, 2026
Canada Goose Holdings Inc. (NYSE:GOOS) designs, manufactures, and sells performance-luxury outerwear and related apparel, footwear, and accessories across three distribution segments: Direct-to-Consumer (DTC), Wholesale, and “Other.” Its product slate ranges from lightweight down jackets to heavyweight parkas, as well as knitwear, sneakers, and accessories, marketed under the Canada Goose, Snow Goose, and Baffin brands in North America, Greater China, the broader Asia-Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa.
Key recent metrics show the company generated **US$1.8 billion in revenue for FY 2023**, with **gross margins hovering around 58%**, reflecting premium pricing power. DTC sales now represent **≈ 45% of total revenue**, up from 38% three years ago, driven by aggressive e-commerce expansion and new flagship stores. The business remains sensitive to **discretionary-spending cycles** and **weather-related demand**; a colder-than-average winter in the U.S. and Europe typically lifts unit volumes, while inflation pressures can compress consumer willingness to spend on luxury outerwear. Currency exposure (≈ 30% of sales in non-CAD currencies) adds earnings volatility, especially given recent CAD-USD fluctuations.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, see the ValueRay analysis of GOOS.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 26.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.09 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 34.37% < 20% (prev 27.60%; Δ 6.77% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 227.6m > Net Income 26.4m |
| Net Debt (545.9m) to EBITDA (184.8m): 2.95 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.01 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (95.0m) vs 12m ago -3.24% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 70.12% > 18% (prev 0.68%; Δ 6944 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 86.48% > 50% (prev 91.25%; Δ -4.77% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.99 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 184.8m / Interest Expense TTM 40.0m) |
Altman Z'' 3.11
| A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 938.4m - Total Current Liabilities 466.5m) / Total Assets 1.72b |
| B: 0.19 (Retained Earnings 319.6m / Total Assets 1.72b) |
| C: 0.05 (EBIT TTM 79.5m / Avg Total Assets 1.59b) |
| D: 0.36 (Book Value of Equity 434.7m / Total Liabilities 1.21b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.11 = A |
Beneish M -2.18
| DSRI: 2.26 (Receivables 190.8m/81.4m, Revenue 1.37b/1.32b) |
| GMI: 0.97 (GM 70.12% / 67.94%) |
| AQI: 0.88 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.04 (Revenue 1.37b / 1.32b) |
| TATA: -0.12 (NI 26.4m - CFO 227.6m) / TA 1.72b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.18 (Cap -4..+1) = BB |
What is the price of GOOS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -7.57%, over one month by -21.29%, over three months by -7.94% and over the past year by +14.69%.
Is GOOS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 4
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the GOOS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 11.4 | 1.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 11.4 | 1.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 10.2 | -9.7% |
GOOS Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Trailing = 64.0
P/E Forward = 10.3199
P/S = 0.8631
P/B = 3.8484
P/EG = 3.02
Revenue TTM = 1.37b CAD
EBIT TTM = 79.5m CAD
EBITDA TTM = 184.8m CAD
Long Term Debt = 416.0m CAD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 155.3m CAD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 831.1m CAD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 545.9m CAD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 2.17b CAD (1.62b + Debt 831.1m - CCE 285.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.99 (Ebit TTM 79.5m / Interest Expense TTM 40.0m)
EV/FCF = 10.63x (Enterprise Value 2.17b / FCF TTM 203.6m)
FCF Yield = 9.40% (FCF TTM 203.6m / Enterprise Value 2.17b)
FCF Margin = 14.83% (FCF TTM 203.6m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Net Margin = 1.92% (Net Income TTM 26.4m / Revenue TTM 1.37b)
Gross Margin = 70.12% ((Revenue TTM 1.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 410.2m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 62.40% (prev 61.41%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.26 (Enterprise Value 2.17b / Total Assets 1.72b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.38% (Interest Expense 11.5m / Debt 831.1m)
Taxrate = 19.13% (24.5m / 128.1m)
NOPAT = 64.3m (EBIT 79.5m * (1 - 19.13%))
Current Ratio = 2.01 (Total Current Assets 938.4m / Total Current Liabilities 466.5m)
Debt / Equity = 1.68 (Debt 831.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 494.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.95 (Net Debt 545.9m / EBITDA 184.8m)
Debt / FCF = 2.68 (Net Debt 545.9m / FCF TTM 203.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 456.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.66% (Net Income 26.4m / Total Assets 1.72b)
RoE = 5.78% (Net Income TTM 26.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 456.4m)
RoCE = 9.11% (EBIT 79.5m / Capital Employed (Equity 456.4m + L.T.Debt 416.0m))
RoIC = 7.05% (NOPAT 64.3m / Invested Capital 911.7m)
WACC = 6.86% (E(1.62b)/V(2.45b) * Re(9.81%) + D(831.1m)/V(2.45b) * Rd(1.38%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 9.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.16%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.83% ; FCFF base≈161.1m ; Y1≈194.8m ; Y5≈316.8m
Fair Price DCF = 139.2 (EV 6.96b - Net Debt 545.9m = Equity 6.41b / Shares 46.1m; r=6.86% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 22.34% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -24.96 | EPS CAGR: -23.90% | SUE: -0.11 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 0.82 | Revenue CAGR: -18.46% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2027-03-31): EPS=0.83 | Chg30d=+0.011 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+18.5% | Growth Revenue=+5.0%