(GPK) Graphic Packaging Holding - Overview
Stock: Paperboard, Folding Cartons, Cups, Containers, Packaging Machines
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.19% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 2.92% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 10.05% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 29.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.52% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.70 |
| Alpha | -58.80 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.514 |
| Beta Downside | 0.432 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 58.24% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.28 |
Description: GPK Graphic Packaging Holding January 08, 2026
Graphic Packaging Holding Company (NYSE:GPK) designs, manufactures and sells a broad range of consumer packaging solutions-including unbleached, bleached and recycled paperboard, as well as cups, lids and food containers-to brands across food, beverage, household, healthcare and beauty categories in the Americas, Europe and Asia-Pacific. The business is organized into three geographic segments (Americas Paperboard Packaging, Europe Paperboard Packaging, and Paperboard Manufacturing) and also offers specialized packaging machinery to converters and brokers.
Key metrics that shape GPK’s outlook include FY 2023 revenue of roughly $5.3 billion and an adjusted EBITDA margin near 12 %, reflecting modest pricing power despite rising pulp costs. The company’s growth is closely tied to secular drivers such as e-commerce-induced demand for lightweight, sustainable packaging and regulatory pressure on single-use plastics, which have accelerated adoption of recyclable paperboard solutions. Capital expenditures of about $300 million in 2023 were directed toward expanding high-speed corrugate lines and upgrading automation to improve throughput and unit economics.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of GPK’s valuation dynamics, consider exploring the analytical tools available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 511.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.18 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 12.35% < 20% (prev 14.07%; Δ -1.72% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 809.0m > Net Income 511.0m |
| Net Debt (5.83b) to EBITDA (1.41b): 4.13 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (297.6m) vs 12m ago -1.65% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.59% > 18% (prev 0.23%; Δ 2037 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 74.51% > 50% (prev 79.79%; Δ -5.28% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.22 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.41b / Interest Expense TTM 210.0m) |
Altman Z'' 1.69
| A: 0.09 (Total Current Assets 3.01b - Total Current Liabilities 1.95b) / Total Assets 11.88b |
| B: 0.13 (Retained Earnings 1.57b / Total Assets 11.88b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 887.0m / Avg Total Assets 11.55b) |
| D: 0.15 (Book Value of Equity 1.31b / Total Liabilities 8.59b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.69 = BB |
Beneish M -3.04
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 908.0m/971.0m, Revenue 8.61b/8.96b) |
| GMI: 1.11 (GM 20.59% / 22.81%) |
| AQI: 0.94 (AQ_t 0.27 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 8.61b / 8.96b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 511.0m - CFO 809.0m) / TA 11.88b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of GPK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -9.49%, over one month by -15.16%, over three months by -18.92% and over the past year by -49.79%.
Is GPK a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GPK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 17.2 | 29.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 17.2 | 29.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 10.6 | -20.2% |
GPK Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 8.3682
P/S = 0.5086
P/B = 1.3162
P/EG = 1.13
Revenue TTM = 8.61b USD
EBIT TTM = 887.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.41b USD
Long Term Debt = 5.47b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 447.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 5.96b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 5.83b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.21b USD (4.38b + Debt 5.96b - CCE 120.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.22 (Ebit TTM 887.0m / Interest Expense TTM 210.0m)
EV/FCF = -33.05x (Enterprise Value 10.21b / FCF TTM -309.0m)
FCF Yield = -3.03% (FCF TTM -309.0m / Enterprise Value 10.21b)
FCF Margin = -3.59% (FCF TTM -309.0m / Revenue TTM 8.61b)
Net Margin = 5.94% (Net Income TTM 511.0m / Revenue TTM 8.61b)
Gross Margin = 20.59% ((Revenue TTM 8.61b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.84b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 19.91% (prev 19.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.86 (Enterprise Value 10.21b / Total Assets 11.88b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.89% (Interest Expense 53.0m / Debt 5.96b)
Taxrate = 21.98% (40.0m / 182.0m)
NOPAT = 692.1m (EBIT 887.0m * (1 - 21.98%))
Current Ratio = 1.54 (Total Current Assets 3.01b / Total Current Liabilities 1.95b)
Debt / Equity = 1.81 (Debt 5.96b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 3.29b)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.13 (Net Debt 5.83b / EBITDA 1.41b)
Debt / FCF = -18.88 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 5.83b / FCF TTM -309.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.17b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.42% (Net Income 511.0m / Total Assets 11.88b)
RoE = 16.13% (Net Income TTM 511.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.17b)
RoCE = 10.27% (EBIT 887.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 3.17b + L.T.Debt 5.47b))
RoIC = 7.84% (NOPAT 692.1m / Invested Capital 8.82b)
WACC = 3.71% (E(4.38b)/V(10.33b) * Re(7.81%) + D(5.96b)/V(10.33b) * Rd(0.89%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 7.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.78%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -309.0m)
EPS Correlation: -49.41 | EPS CAGR: -44.34% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -30.39 | Revenue CAGR: 2.61% | SUE: 0.48 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.42 | Chg30d=-0.019 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.77 | Chg30d=-0.133 | Revisions Net=-7 | Growth EPS=-5.0% | Growth Revenue=-0.5%