(GRBK) Green Brick Partners - Overview
Stock: Homes, Land, Mortgage, Title, Insurance
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.81% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.71 |
| Alpha | 14.71 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.665 |
| Beta Downside | 0.354 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 36.15% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.95 |
Description: GRBK Green Brick Partners January 11, 2026
Green Brick Partners, Inc. (NYSE: GRBK) is the third-largest homebuilder in the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area and operates a diversified portfolio of residential construction and land-development businesses across Texas, Georgia, and Florida. The company controls five Texas-based homebuilding subsidiaries (CB JENI, Normandy, Southgate, Trophy Signature, and a 90 % stake in Centre Living), a 50 % joint venture with The Providence Group in Atlanta, and an 80 % interest in GHO Homes in Port St. Lucie, while also offering ancillary services through its title, mortgage, and insurance platforms.
Key operating metrics that investors watch include the average selling price (ASP) of new homes-currently hovering around $420 k in the DFW market, a 7 % YoY increase driven by limited inventory and strong job growth-and the companys land-bank size, which stood at roughly 3,200 lots at quarter-end, providing a multi-year pipeline. Sector-wide, the homebuilding outlook remains sensitive to mortgage-rate fluctuations; the 30-year Treasury yield has risen to 4.3 %, pressuring affordability, while the U.S. construction cost index continues to climb at ~5 % annually, eroding margins unless passed through to buyers.
For a deeper, data-driven look at GRBK’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 338.7m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.70 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 94.60% < 20% (prev 88.56%; Δ 6.04% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.07 > 3% & CFO 162.2m > Net Income 338.7m |
| Net Debt (206.0m) to EBITDA (444.5m): 0.46 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 7.31 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (43.6m) vs 12m ago -2.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 31.84% > 18% (prev 0.33%; Δ 3151 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 90.82% > 50% (prev 91.25%; Δ -0.43% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -18.44 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 444.5m / Interest Expense TTM -23.8m) |
Altman Z'' 10.00
| A: 0.81 (Total Current Assets 2.32b - Total Current Liabilities 316.7m) / Total Assets 2.48b |
| B: 0.61 (Retained Earnings 1.51b / Total Assets 2.48b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 439.3m / Avg Total Assets 2.33b) |
| D: 2.51 (Book Value of Equity 1.51b / Total Liabilities 602.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 11.17 = AAA |
Beneish M -0.91
| DSRI: 3.33 (Receivables 40.3m/11.3m, Revenue 2.11b/1.98b) |
| GMI: 1.03 (GM 31.84% / 32.73%) |
| AQI: 1.08 (AQ_t 0.06 / AQ_t-1 0.06) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 2.11b / 1.98b) |
| TATA: 0.07 (NI 338.7m - CFO 162.2m) / TA 2.48b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -0.91 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of GRBK shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.75%, over one month by +17.17%, over three months by +21.22% and over the past year by +26.02%.
Is GRBK a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the GRBK price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 62 | -17.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 62 | -17.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 96.8 | 28.3% |
GRBK Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/E Forward = 11.7925
P/S = 1.4947
P/B = 1.7981
P/EG = 0.76
Revenue TTM = 2.11b USD
EBIT TTM = 439.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 444.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 276.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 62.8m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 348.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 206.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.36b USD (3.16b + Debt 348.5m - CCE 142.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -18.44 (Ebit TTM 439.3m / Interest Expense TTM -23.8m)
EV/FCF = 21.28x (Enterprise Value 3.36b / FCF TTM 158.1m)
FCF Yield = 4.70% (FCF TTM 158.1m / Enterprise Value 3.36b)
FCF Margin = 7.48% (FCF TTM 158.1m / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Net Margin = 16.03% (Net Income TTM 338.7m / Revenue TTM 2.11b)
Gross Margin = 31.84% ((Revenue TTM 2.11b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.44b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.15% (prev 30.50%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.36 (Enterprise Value 3.36b / Total Assets 2.48b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 23.93% (Interest Expense 83.4m / Debt 348.5m)
Taxrate = 21.78% (23.2m / 106.6m)
NOPAT = 343.6m (EBIT 439.3m * (1 - 21.78%))
Current Ratio = 7.31 (Total Current Assets 2.32b / Total Current Liabilities 316.7m)
Debt / Equity = 0.19 (Debt 348.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.80b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.46 (Net Debt 206.0m / EBITDA 444.5m)
Debt / FCF = 1.30 (Net Debt 206.0m / FCF TTM 158.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.56% (Net Income 338.7m / Total Assets 2.48b)
RoE = 19.79% (Net Income TTM 338.7m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.71b)
RoCE = 22.10% (EBIT 439.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.71b + L.T.Debt 276.7m))
RoIC = 17.38% (NOPAT 343.6m / Invested Capital 1.98b)
WACC = 9.39% (E(3.16b)/V(3.51b) * Re(8.36%) + D(348.5m)/V(3.51b) * Rd(23.93%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 8.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.22%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 64.20% ; FCFF base≈158.1m ; Y1≈103.8m ; Y5≈47.4m
Fair Price DCF = 12.41 (EV 746.7m - Net Debt 206.0m = Equity 540.7m / Shares 43.6m; r=9.39% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -14.89 | EPS CAGR: -43.08% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 64.45 | Revenue CAGR: 2.66% | SUE: 1.69 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.55 | Chg30d=+0.070 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.84 | Chg30d=+0.500 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-2.1% | Growth Revenue=+3.4%