(HCC) Warrior Met Coal - Overview
Stock: Coal, Gas
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.56% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.55% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 12.47% |
| Payout Consistency | 65.2% |
| Payout Ratio | 49.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -9.71% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.15 |
| Alpha | 55.54 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.627 |
| Beta Downside | 0.743 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 45.53% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.77 |
Description: HCC Warrior Met Coal January 12, 2026
Warrior Met Coal, Inc. (NYSE:HCC) is a U.S.–based producer of hard-coking (metallurgical) coal, primarily serving steelmakers in Europe, South America, and Asia. The company operates underground mines in Alabama and monetizes associated natural-gas by-products.
Key operational metrics (FY 2023): ≈ 7.2 million short tons of metallurgical coal sold, ≈ $2.8 billion in revenue, and a cash-cost of roughly $45 per ton, which is modestly below the industry average of $55-$60 per ton.
Sector drivers that materially affect Warrior’s outlook include: (1) global steel-production trends-particularly Chinese and EU re-industrialization plans that lift demand for high-grade coking coal; (2) the price trajectory of metallurgical coal, which has risen from $115/short ton in early 2022 to about $210/short ton in late 2024; and (3) ESG-related supply-chain pressures that favor low-sulfur, high-quality coking coal, a niche where Warrior’s Alabama mines have a comparative advantage.
Financial health remains a focal point: the company reported a net debt of $550 million and a debt-to-EBITDA ratio of ~2.1×, indicating moderate leverage but also exposing it to interest-rate risk in a rising-rate environment.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Warrior Met Coal’s valuation and risk profile, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst toolkit can help you surface the most material assumptions.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.0
| Net Income: 35.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -8.29 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 49.70% < 20% (prev 50.57%; Δ -0.87% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.08 > 3% & CFO 207.4m > Net Income 35.2m |
| Net Debt (-99.7m) to EBITDA (150.7m): -0.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 4.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (52.6m) vs 12m ago 0.49% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 29.64% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 2936 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 46.47% > 50% (prev 61.68%; Δ -15.21% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.01 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 150.7m / Interest Expense TTM 8.12m) |
Altman Z'' 7.30
| A: 0.23 (Total Current Assets 802.0m - Total Current Liabilities 194.3m) / Total Assets 2.68b |
| B: 0.70 (Retained Earnings 1.87b / Total Assets 2.68b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 24.4m / Avg Total Assets 2.63b) |
| D: 3.32 (Book Value of Equity 1.87b / Total Liabilities 564.8m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 7.30 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.64
| DSRI: 1.00 (Receivables 145.1m/188.3m, Revenue 1.22b/1.59b) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 29.64% / 28.38%) |
| AQI: 0.42 (AQ_t 0.02 / AQ_t-1 0.04) |
| SGI: 0.77 (Revenue 1.22b / 1.59b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 35.2m - CFO 207.4m) / TA 2.68b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.64 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of HCC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -0.28%, over one month by -1.95%, over three months by +9.64% and over the past year by +68.26%.
Is HCC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HCC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 101.7 | 14.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 101.7 | 14.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 122.6 | 37.7% |
HCC Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 14.2653
P/S = 3.715
P/B = 2.1942
Revenue TTM = 1.22b USD
EBIT TTM = 24.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 150.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 154.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 25.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 236.6m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -99.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.45b USD (4.55b + Debt 236.6m - CCE 336.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.01 (Ebit TTM 24.4m / Interest Expense TTM 8.12m)
EV/FCF = -26.24x (Enterprise Value 4.45b / FCF TTM -169.6m)
FCF Yield = -3.81% (FCF TTM -169.6m / Enterprise Value 4.45b)
FCF Margin = -13.87% (FCF TTM -169.6m / Revenue TTM 1.22b)
Net Margin = 2.88% (Net Income TTM 35.2m / Revenue TTM 1.22b)
Gross Margin = 29.64% ((Revenue TTM 1.22b - Cost of Revenue TTM 860.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 11.35% (prev 6.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.66 (Enterprise Value 4.45b / Total Assets 2.68b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.98% (Interest Expense 2.31m / Debt 236.6m)
Taxrate = 11.66% (33.1m / 283.7m)
NOPAT = 21.6m (EBIT 24.4m * (1 - 11.66%))
Current Ratio = 4.13 (Total Current Assets 802.0m / Total Current Liabilities 194.3m)
Debt / Equity = 0.11 (Debt 236.6m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.66 (Net Debt -99.7m / EBITDA 150.7m)
Debt / FCF = 0.59 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt -99.7m / FCF TTM -169.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.09b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.34% (Net Income 35.2m / Total Assets 2.68b)
RoE = 1.68% (Net Income TTM 35.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.09b)
RoCE = 1.09% (EBIT 24.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.09b + L.T.Debt 154.1m))
RoIC = 0.96% (NOPAT 21.6m / Invested Capital 2.25b)
WACC = 7.87% (E(4.55b)/V(4.78b) * Re(8.23%) + D(236.6m)/V(4.78b) * Rd(0.98%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 8.23% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.51%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -169.6m)
EPS Correlation: -86.14 | EPS CAGR: -45.73% | SUE: -0.58 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -60.96 | Revenue CAGR: -6.12% | SUE: 1.12 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.60 | Chg30d=+0.198 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=6.89 | Chg30d=-0.374 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+463.2% | Growth Revenue=+47.2%