(HCI) HCI - Overview
Stock: Homeowners Insurance, Reinsurance, Real Estate, Software Platforms
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.07% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.87% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 0.00% |
| Payout Consistency | 97.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 10.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 37.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -6.96% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.92 |
| Alpha | 26.15 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.281 |
| Beta Downside | 0.390 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 28.30% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.85 |
Description: HCI HCI January 16, 2026
HCI Group, Inc. (NYSE:HCI) operates a diversified business model that spans property-and-casualty insurance, reinsurance, real-estate investment, and insurance-technology services across four segments: Insurance Operations, TypTap Group, Reciprocal Exchange Operations, and Real Estate Operations.
In its core insurance business, HCI writes residential policies-including homeowners, fire, and wind-only coverage-for owners, condo associations, and renters, while also providing reinsurance programs that help manage catastrophe exposure. Recent filings show the company generated $1.2 billion in written premium for FY 2024, with a combined ratio of 92.5%, indicating underwriting profitability despite a higher frequency of severe weather events in the Southeast.
The Real Estate Operations segment holds a portfolio of waterfront properties, retail shopping centers, office buildings, and other commercial assets. Occupancy rates have remained above 94% in 2023, and the segment benefited from a 4.2% year-over-year increase in net operating income, driven in part by rising rental rates in high-growth Florida markets.
HCI’s technology arm develops web-based platforms such as SAMS, Harmony, ClaimColony, and AtlasViewer, which are marketed both internally and to third-party insurers. The SaaS revenue stream grew 18% YoY in Q4 2023, reflecting broader industry adoption of digital policy administration and claims automation tools.
Key sector drivers include the escalating cost of natural-disaster claims, which pressures underwriting discipline, and the low-interest-rate environment that affects investment income from the real-estate portfolio. Conversely, the ongoing digital transformation in insurance creates upside potential for HCI’s tech platforms.
For a deeper quantitative view, the ValueRay platform offers a granular breakdown of HCI’s risk metrics and valuation multiples.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income: 203.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.17 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 196.9% < 20% (prev 176.5%; Δ 20.48% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 408.4m > Net Income 203.9m |
| Net Debt (-954.9m) to EBITDA (313.7m): -3.04 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 85.40 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (12.9m) vs 12m ago 22.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 48.85% > 18% (prev 0.44%; Δ 4841 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.69% > 50% (prev 37.77%; Δ -0.08% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 26.52 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 313.7m / Interest Expense TTM 11.4m) |
Altman Z'' 6.52
| A: 0.69 (Total Current Assets 1.63b - Total Current Liabilities 19.1m) / Total Assets 2.35b |
| B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 519.0m / Total Assets 2.35b) |
| C: 0.14 (EBIT TTM 302.6m / Avg Total Assets 2.17b) |
| D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 521.1m / Total Liabilities 1.49b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.52 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.24
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 410.0m/421.6m, Revenue 816.9m/750.7m) |
| GMI: 0.89 (GM 48.85% / 43.54%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.29 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 1.09 (Revenue 816.9m / 750.7m) |
| TATA: -0.09 (NI 203.9m - CFO 408.4m) / TA 2.35b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.24 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of HCI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.91%, over one month by -6.58%, over three months by -16.07% and over the past year by +34.67%.
Is HCI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HCI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 245 | 50% |
| Analysts Target Price | 245 | 50% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 203.3 | 24.5% |
HCI Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.8814
P/S = 2.5183
P/B = 2.5296
P/EG = 1.7
Revenue TTM = 816.9m USD
EBIT TTM = 302.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = 313.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 32.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 997.0k USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 33.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -954.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.10b USD (2.06b + Debt 33.1m - CCE 987.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.52 (Ebit TTM 302.6m / Interest Expense TTM 11.4m)
EV/FCF = 2.72x (Enterprise Value 1.10b / FCF TTM 404.8m)
FCF Yield = 36.75% (FCF TTM 404.8m / Enterprise Value 1.10b)
FCF Margin = 49.55% (FCF TTM 404.8m / Revenue TTM 816.9m)
Net Margin = 24.97% (Net Income TTM 203.9m / Revenue TTM 816.9m)
Gross Margin = 48.85% ((Revenue TTM 816.9m - Cost of Revenue TTM 417.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 54.80% (prev 57.19%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.47 (Enterprise Value 1.10b / Total Assets 2.35b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 3.08% (Interest Expense 1.02m / Debt 33.1m)
Taxrate = 25.07% (22.7m / 90.6m)
NOPAT = 226.8m (EBIT 302.6m * (1 - 25.07%))
Current Ratio = 85.40 (Total Current Assets 1.63b / Total Current Liabilities 19.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.04 (Debt 33.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 821.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = -3.04 (Net Debt -954.9m / EBITDA 313.7m)
Debt / FCF = -2.36 (Net Debt -954.9m / FCF TTM 404.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 639.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 9.41% (Net Income 203.9m / Total Assets 2.35b)
RoE = 31.91% (Net Income TTM 203.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 639.1m)
RoCE = 45.09% (EBIT 302.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 639.1m + L.T.Debt 32.1m))
RoIC = 30.49% (NOPAT 226.8m / Invested Capital 743.7m)
WACC = 6.88% (E(2.06b)/V(2.09b) * Re(6.95%) + D(33.1m)/V(2.09b) * Rd(3.08%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 6.95% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 6.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.45% ; FCFF base≈406.3m ; Y1≈408.4m ; Y5≈437.1m
Fair Price DCF = 832.7 (EV 9.84b - Net Debt -954.9m = Equity 10.79b / Shares 13.0m; r=6.88% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 0.06% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 53.58 | EPS CAGR: -1.52% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 90.26 | Revenue CAGR: 19.52% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=5.03 | Chg30d=-0.295 | Revisions Net=+3 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=16.16 | Chg30d=-0.529 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=-20.7% | Growth Revenue=+10.0%