(HLF) Herbalife Nutrition - Overview
Stock: Meal Replacement, Protein Shakes, Supplements, Tea, Snacks
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 58.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.58% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.82 |
| Alpha | 199.91 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.869 |
| Beta Downside | 0.901 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 75.98% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.01 |
Description: HLF Herbalife Nutrition January 20, 2026
Herbalife Ltd. (NYSE:HLF) is a global direct-selling company that markets health-and-wellness products across North America, Latin America, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, China and the Asia-Pacific. Its portfolio spans weight-management (meal-replacement shakes, protein powders, metabolism-boosting teas), targeted nutrition (functional beverages, herbal supplements), outer-nutrition (skin, hair and body care), and energy/sports items (N-R-G tea, energy drinks). Sales are delivered through a network of independent distributors, company-operated retail outlets and digital platforms. The firm rebranded from Herbalife Nutrition Ltd. to Herbalife Ltd. in April 2023, maintaining its Los Angeles headquarters and a distribution base of roughly 4.5 million independent representatives worldwide.
In FY 2023 the company reported net sales of approximately $2.2 billion, with an operating margin of about 5 % and net income of $115 million, reflecting modest profitability in a highly competitive personal-care sector. Comparable-sales growth was driven primarily by emerging-market expansion (+7 % YoY) and a 4 % increase in e-commerce penetration, while North-American sales were flat, underscoring sensitivity to discretionary-spending cycles and inflationary pressure on consumer budgets.
Key industry drivers include the rising demand for personalized nutrition, accelerated adoption of direct-to-consumer digital channels, and regulatory scrutiny of multi-level marketing models, all of which can materially affect Herbalife’s growth trajectory. For a deeper, data-rich analysis of how these factors translate into valuation risk and upside, a quick look at ValueRay’s HLF dossier can provide useful context.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 320.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 1.25 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 2.14% < 20% (prev -0.81%; Δ 2.95% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 304.6m > Net Income 320.8m |
| Net Debt (1.90b) to EBITDA (618.0m): 3.08 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.11 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (104.0m) vs 12m ago 2.06% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 77.26% > 18% (prev 0.78%; Δ 7649 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 185.5% > 50% (prev 188.5%; Δ -2.99% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 2.26 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 618.0m / Interest Expense TTM 219.9m) |
Altman Z'' 0.41
| A: 0.04 (Total Current Assets 1.11b - Total Current Liabilities 999.9m) / Total Assets 2.70b |
| B: -0.25 (Retained Earnings -665.1m / Total Assets 2.70b) |
| C: 0.19 (EBIT TTM 497.1m / Avg Total Assets 2.68b) |
| D: -0.28 (Book Value of Equity -916.6m / Total Liabilities 3.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.41 = B |
Beneish M -2.61
| DSRI: 1.32 (Receivables 107.4m/82.0m, Revenue 4.96b/5.00b) |
| GMI: 1.00 (GM 77.26% / 77.52%) |
| AQI: 1.25 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.29) |
| SGI: 0.99 (Revenue 4.96b / 5.00b) |
| TATA: 0.01 (NI 320.8m - CFO 304.6m) / TA 2.70b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.61 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of HLF shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.36%, over one month by +15.81%, over three months by +87.73% and over the past year by +224.24%.
Is HLF a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HLF price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14 | -17.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14 | -17.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 20.4 | 20% |
HLF Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 6.4309
P/S = 0.3623
P/EG = -32.8
Revenue TTM = 4.96b USD
EBIT TTM = 497.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 618.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.00b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 58.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.21b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 1.90b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.70b USD (1.80b + Debt 2.21b - CCE 305.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 2.26 (Ebit TTM 497.1m / Interest Expense TTM 219.9m)
EV/FCF = 17.07x (Enterprise Value 3.70b / FCF TTM 217.0m)
FCF Yield = 5.86% (FCF TTM 217.0m / Enterprise Value 3.70b)
FCF Margin = 4.37% (FCF TTM 217.0m / Revenue TTM 4.96b)
Net Margin = 6.47% (Net Income TTM 320.8m / Revenue TTM 4.96b)
Gross Margin = 77.26% ((Revenue TTM 4.96b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 74.99% (prev 78.01%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.37 (Enterprise Value 3.70b / Total Assets 2.70b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.40% (Interest Expense 53.0m / Debt 2.21b)
Taxrate = 42.38% (31.7m / 74.8m)
NOPAT = 286.4m (EBIT 497.1m * (1 - 42.38%))
Current Ratio = 1.11 (Total Current Assets 1.11b / Total Current Liabilities 999.9m)
Debt / Equity = -3.62 (negative equity) (Debt 2.21b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -612.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.08 (Net Debt 1.90b / EBITDA 618.0m)
Debt / FCF = 8.77 (Net Debt 1.90b / FCF TTM 217.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -702.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 11.99% (Net Income 320.8m / Total Assets 2.70b)
RoE = -45.67% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 320.8m / Total Stockholder Equity -702.4m)
RoCE = 38.39% (EBIT 497.1m / Capital Employed (Equity -702.4m + L.T.Debt 2.00b))
RoIC = 19.74% (NOPAT 286.4m / Invested Capital 1.45b)
WACC = 4.85% (E(1.80b)/V(4.01b) * Re(9.12%) + D(2.21b)/V(4.01b) * Rd(2.40%) * (1-Tc(0.42)))
Discount Rate = 9.12% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 1.83%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.86% ; FCFF base≈202.3m ; Y1≈193.1m ; Y5≈186.2m
Fair Price DCF = 35.63 (EV 5.58b - Net Debt 1.90b = Equity 3.68b / Shares 103.3m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -6.00% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -71.10 | EPS CAGR: -54.29% | SUE: -3.42 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -51.09 | Revenue CAGR: -0.91% | SUE: 0.33 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.67 | Chg30d=+0.035 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.77 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+27.9% | Growth Revenue=+3.0%