(HLLY) Holley - Overview
Stock: Carburetors, Exhaust, Fuel, Tuners, Transmissions
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 57.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.6% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.78 |
| Alpha | 30.30 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.854 |
| Beta Downside | 0.706 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.59% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.31 |
Description: HLLY Holley December 31, 2025
Holley Inc. (NYSE:HLLY) designs, manufactures, and distributes a broad portfolio of performance-oriented automotive aftermarket products-including carburetors, fuel injection systems, nitrous kits, superchargers, exhaust components, and transmission upgrades-primarily to enthusiasts in the United States, Canada, and Europe. The firm markets its offerings under multiple brands such as Holley EFI, MSD, Simpson, Edge, Superchips, and Flowmaster through a mix of direct-to-consumer (DTC), e-tailer, warehouse distributor, traditional retail, and installer channels.
Key metrics and sector drivers: • FY 2023 revenue was $284 million, up 7 % YoY, reflecting strong demand for high-performance upgrades amid a robust U.S. aftermarket rebound. • Gross margin improved to 38 % from 35 % in 2022, driven by higher-margin EFI and software solutions. • The aftermarket segment is projected to grow 4-5 % annually through 2028, but a gradual shift toward electric vehicles (EVs) could compress demand for traditional internal-combustion performance parts, prompting Holley to expand its software and EV-compatible offerings.
For a deeper quantitative view, explore ValueRay’s analyst dashboard to see Holley’s valuation metrics and scenario analyses.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -24.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 33.80% < 20% (prev 31.83%; Δ 1.97% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 44.2m > Net Income -24.9m |
| Net Debt (518.2m) to EBITDA (114.9m): 4.51 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.78 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (119.4m) vs 12m ago 0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 44.40% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 4402 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 50.92% > 50% (prev 52.18%; Δ -1.26% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.72 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 114.9m / Interest Expense TTM 51.8m) |
Altman Z'' 1.89
| A: 0.17 (Total Current Assets 316.1m - Total Current Liabilities 113.9m) / Total Assets 1.17b |
| B: 0.05 (Retained Earnings 57.6m / Total Assets 1.17b) |
| C: 0.08 (EBIT TTM 89.3m / Avg Total Assets 1.17b) |
| D: 0.08 (Book Value of Equity 57.8m / Total Liabilities 725.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.89 = BBB |
Beneish M -3.11
| DSRI: 1.15 (Receivables 49.6m/44.5m, Revenue 598.1m/617.9m) |
| GMI: 0.86 (GM 44.40% / 38.02%) |
| AQI: 1.01 (AQ_t 0.69 / AQ_t-1 0.69) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 598.1m / 617.9m) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI -24.9m - CFO 44.2m) / TA 1.17b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.11 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of HLLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +10.91%, over one month by +4.40%, over three months by +56.41% and over the past year by +43.77%.
Is HLLY a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HLLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 5 | 16.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 5 | 16.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 4 | -6.8% |
HLLY Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.7756
P/B = 1.0672
Revenue TTM = 598.1m USD
EBIT TTM = 89.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 114.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 528.9m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 6.65m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 568.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 518.2m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 982.1m USD (463.9m + Debt 568.9m - CCE 50.7m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.72 (Ebit TTM 89.3m / Interest Expense TTM 51.8m)
EV/FCF = 64.84x (Enterprise Value 982.1m / FCF TTM 15.1m)
FCF Yield = 1.54% (FCF TTM 15.1m / Enterprise Value 982.1m)
FCF Margin = 2.53% (FCF TTM 15.1m / Revenue TTM 598.1m)
Net Margin = -4.16% (Net Income TTM -24.9m / Revenue TTM 598.1m)
Gross Margin = 44.40% ((Revenue TTM 598.1m - Cost of Revenue TTM 332.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.24% (prev 41.74%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.84 (Enterprise Value 982.1m / Total Assets 1.17b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.98% (Interest Expense 11.3m / Debt 568.9m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 70.6m (EBIT 89.3m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 2.78 (Total Current Assets 316.1m / Total Current Liabilities 113.9m)
Debt / Equity = 1.29 (Debt 568.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 439.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 4.51 (Net Debt 518.2m / EBITDA 114.9m)
Debt / FCF = 34.21 (Net Debt 518.2m / FCF TTM 15.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 430.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -2.12% (Net Income -24.9m / Total Assets 1.17b)
RoE = -5.78% (Net Income TTM -24.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 430.8m)
RoCE = 9.31% (EBIT 89.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 430.8m + L.T.Debt 528.9m))
RoIC = 7.21% (NOPAT 70.6m / Invested Capital 978.2m)
WACC = 4.93% (E(463.9m)/V(1.03b) * Re(9.06%) + D(568.9m)/V(1.03b) * Rd(1.98%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 9.06% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.07%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈36.3m ; Y1≈23.9m ; Y5≈10.9m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 346.7m - Net Debt 518.2m = -171.4m; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -5.34 | EPS CAGR: -16.62% | SUE: -1.85 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -67.61 | Revenue CAGR: -6.75% | SUE: 1.42 | # QB: 3
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.07 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=0.38 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+73.5% | Growth Revenue=+5.1%