(HRTG) Heritage Insurance Hldgs - Overview
Stock: Personal Residential, Commercial Residential, Homeowners, Condo, Dwelling Fire
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 61.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.7% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.60 |
| Alpha | 120.64 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.317 |
| Beta Downside | 0.273 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.90% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.02 |
Description: HRTG Heritage Insurance Hldgs December 25, 2025
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) writes personal and commercial residential property insurance through a network of independent agents, covering 16 states for personal lines (including high-exposure markets such as Florida, California, and New York) and three states for commercial residential property (Florida, New Jersey, New York). Its product suite includes homeowners, condo, dwelling-fire, equipment coverage, and an artisan-contractor program.
As of the most recent filing (2023 12-month), the company reported net written premiums of roughly **$1.2 billion**, a **combined ratio of 92%**, and a **return on equity (ROE) near 8%**-all modestly above the industry median for midsize P&C carriers, but still vulnerable to loss spikes from catastrophic events.
Key drivers of Heritage’s performance are: (1) **catastrophe exposure**, especially hurricane activity in Florida, which can swing loss ratios by 10-15 percentage points in a single season; (2) **investment income**, which is sensitive to the current high-interest-rate environment and the steepening yield curve; and (3) **regulatory capital requirements**, where state-level solvency standards can affect growth capacity in new markets.
For a data-rich, side-by-side comparison of Heritage’s valuation metrics against peers, you might find the analytics on ValueRay worth a quick look.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 149.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -5.29 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 76.83% < 20% (prev 27.03%; Δ 49.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 > 3% & CFO 112.4m > Net Income 149.2m |
| Net Debt (-458.8m) to EBITDA (221.1m): -2.07 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 765.9 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (30.9m) vs 12m ago 0.66% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 35.71% > 18% (prev 0.23%; Δ 3548 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 35.53% > 50% (prev 33.95%; Δ 1.58% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 23.95 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 221.1m / Interest Expense TTM 8.72m) |
Altman Z'' 2.79
| A: 0.27 (Total Current Assets 648.0m - Total Current Liabilities 846.0k) / Total Assets 2.37b |
| B: 0.09 (Retained Earnings 216.6m / Total Assets 2.37b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 209.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.37b) |
| D: 0.11 (Book Value of Equity 203.6m / Total Liabilities 1.93b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.79 = A |
Beneish M -3.45
| DSRI: 0.84 (Receivables 473.4m/536.9m, Revenue 842.3m/806.0m) |
| GMI: 0.63 (GM 35.71% / 22.58%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.71 / AQ_t-1 0.72) |
| SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 842.3m / 806.0m) |
| TATA: 0.02 (NI 149.2m - CFO 112.4m) / TA 2.37b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.45 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of HRTG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.80%, over one month by +1.07%, over three months by -4.70% and over the past year by +128.01%.
Is HRTG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HRTG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.5 | 33.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.5 | 33.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 34.1 | 28.5% |
HRTG Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.9601
P/B = 1.8692
Revenue TTM = 842.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 209.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 221.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.25m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 101.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -458.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 243.9m USD (808.6m + Debt 101.7m - CCE 666.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.95 (Ebit TTM 209.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.72m)
EV/FCF = 2.22x (Enterprise Value 243.9m / FCF TTM 109.8m)
FCF Yield = 45.01% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Enterprise Value 243.9m)
FCF Margin = 13.03% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Net Margin = 17.72% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Gross Margin = 35.71% ((Revenue TTM 842.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 541.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.54% (prev 42.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.10 (Enterprise Value 243.9m / Total Assets 2.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.82% (Interest Expense 1.85m / Debt 101.7m)
Taxrate = 26.19% (17.9m / 68.3m)
NOPAT = 154.2m (EBIT 209.0m * (1 - 26.19%))
Current Ratio = 765.9 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 648.0m / Total Current Liabilities 846.0k)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 101.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 437.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.07 (Net Debt -458.8m / EBITDA 221.1m)
Debt / FCF = -4.18 (Net Debt -458.8m / FCF TTM 109.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 360.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.29% (Net Income 149.2m / Total Assets 2.37b)
RoE = 41.44% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 360.1m)
RoCE = 57.36% (EBIT 209.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 360.1m + L.T.Debt 4.25m))
RoIC = 33.84% (NOPAT 154.2m / Invested Capital 455.8m)
WACC = 6.44% (E(808.6m)/V(910.3m) * Re(7.08%) + D(101.7m)/V(910.3m) * Rd(1.82%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.08% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.91% ; FCFF base≈160.2m ; Y1≈105.2m ; Y5≈48.0m
Fair Price DCF = 57.24 (EV 1.31b - Net Debt -458.8m = Equity 1.77b / Shares 30.9m; r=6.44% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 62.86 | EPS CAGR: 28.47% | SUE: -2.43 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.08 | Revenue CAGR: 6.68% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.32 | Chg30d=+0.017 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=-18.0% | Growth Revenue=+7.3%