(HRTG) Heritage Insurance Hldgs - Ratings and Ratios
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US42727J1025
Personal Residential, Commercial Residential, Homeowners, Condo, Dwelling Fire
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 68.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 95.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.88% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.61 |
| Alpha | 127.69 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.50 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.337 |
| Beta | 0.404 |
| Beta Downside | 0.429 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 43.90% |
| Mean DD | 16.69% |
| Median DD | 15.08% |
Description: HRTG Heritage Insurance Hldgs October 22, 2025
Heritage Insurance Holdings, Inc. (NYSE:HRTG) writes personal and commercial residential insurance across 16 states, with a focus on homeowners, condos, dwelling fire, equipment coverage, and an artisan contractor program. The business distributes policies through independent agents and operates a commercial residential property line in Florida, New Jersey, and New York. Founded in 2012 and based in Tampa, Florida, the company is positioned in the Property & Casualty Insurance sub-industry.
Key performance indicators from recent filings show a combined ratio of roughly 96% and a loss ratio near 68%, indicating underwriting profitability but limited margin headroom. Net written premiums grew about 7% YoY to $1.2 bn, driven largely by expanding market share in the Sun Belt states. Return on equity (ROE) sits around 8%, while the equity capital base remains modest at $300 m, making capital adequacy a focus for investors.
Because hurricane activity, interest-rate trends, and the health of the U.S. housing market are primary drivers of HRTG’s results, monitoring those macro variables is essential for a realistic outlook. For a deeper dive into HRTG’s valuation metrics and peer comparison, you might explore the analysis on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income (149.2m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 50.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.05 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -5.29pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 76.83% (prev 27.03%; Δ 49.80pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.05 (>3.0%) and CFO 112.4m <= Net Income 149.2m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (-458.8m) to EBITDA (221.1m) ratio: -2.07 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 765.9 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (30.9m) change vs 12m ago 0.66% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 35.71% (prev 22.58%; Δ 13.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 35.53% (prev 33.95%; Δ 1.58pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 23.95 (EBITDA TTM 221.1m / Interest Expense TTM 8.72m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 2.79
| (A) 0.27 = (Total Current Assets 648.0m - Total Current Liabilities 846.0k) / Total Assets 2.37b |
| (B) 0.09 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 216.6m / Total Assets 2.37b |
| (C) 0.09 = EBIT TTM 209.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.37b |
| (D) 0.11 = Book Value of Equity 203.6m / Total Liabilities 1.93b |
| Total Rating: 2.79 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 88.29
| 1. Piotroski 4.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 37.96% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.03% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.23 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -2.07 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 27.00)% |
| 7. RoE 41.44% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 96.08% |
| 9. EPS Trend 67.03% |
What is the price of HRTG shares?
As of December 14, 2025, the stock is trading at USD 29.08 with a total of 180,178 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.79%, over one month by -2.48%, over three months by +18.26% and over the past year by +135.47%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by +8.79%, over one month by -2.48%, over three months by +18.26% and over the past year by +135.47%.
Is HRTG a buy, sell or hold?
Heritage Insurance Hldgs has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy HRTG.
- Strong Buy: 1
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HRTG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 35.5 | 22.1% |
| Analysts Target Price | 35.5 | 22.1% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 37.8 | 29.8% |
HRTG Fundamental Data Overview December 10, 2025
Market Cap USD = 853.9m (853.9m USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 5.6998
P/S = 1.0138
P/B = 1.8897
Beta = 0.959
Revenue TTM = 842.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 209.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 221.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.25m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 101.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -458.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 289.2m USD (853.9m + Debt 101.7m - CCE 666.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.95 (Ebit TTM 209.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.72m)
FCF Yield = 37.96% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Enterprise Value 289.2m)
FCF Margin = 13.03% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Net Margin = 17.72% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Gross Margin = 35.71% ((Revenue TTM 842.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 541.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.54% (prev 42.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.12 (Enterprise Value 289.2m / Total Assets 2.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.82% (Interest Expense 1.85m / Debt 101.7m)
Taxrate = 26.19% (17.9m / 68.3m)
NOPAT = 154.2m (EBIT 209.0m * (1 - 26.19%))
Current Ratio = 765.9 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 648.0m / Total Current Liabilities 846.0k)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 101.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 437.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.07 (Net Debt -458.8m / EBITDA 221.1m)
Debt / FCF = -4.18 (Net Debt -458.8m / FCF TTM 109.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 360.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.30% (Net Income 149.2m / Total Assets 2.37b)
RoE = 41.44% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 360.1m)
RoCE = 57.36% (EBIT 209.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 360.1m + L.T.Debt 4.25m))
RoIC = 33.84% (NOPAT 154.2m / Invested Capital 455.8m)
WACC = 6.84% (E(853.9m)/V(955.6m) * Re(7.50%) + D(101.7m)/V(955.6m) * Rd(1.82%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈160.2m ; Y1≈105.2m ; Y5≈48.1m
Fair Price DCF = 30.59 (DCF Value 945.4m / Shares Outstanding 30.9m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 67.03 | EPS CAGR: 42.81% | SUE: 3.77 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 96.08 | Revenue CAGR: 6.68% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.30 | Chg30d=+0.267 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=-15.2% | Growth Revenue=+7.3%
P/E Trailing = 5.6998
P/S = 1.0138
P/B = 1.8897
Beta = 0.959
Revenue TTM = 842.3m USD
EBIT TTM = 209.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 221.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 4.25m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 75.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 101.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -458.8m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 289.2m USD (853.9m + Debt 101.7m - CCE 666.4m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 23.95 (Ebit TTM 209.0m / Interest Expense TTM 8.72m)
FCF Yield = 37.96% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Enterprise Value 289.2m)
FCF Margin = 13.03% (FCF TTM 109.8m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Net Margin = 17.72% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Revenue TTM 842.3m)
Gross Margin = 35.71% ((Revenue TTM 842.3m - Cost of Revenue TTM 541.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 43.54% (prev 42.91%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.12 (Enterprise Value 289.2m / Total Assets 2.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.82% (Interest Expense 1.85m / Debt 101.7m)
Taxrate = 26.19% (17.9m / 68.3m)
NOPAT = 154.2m (EBIT 209.0m * (1 - 26.19%))
Current Ratio = 765.9 (out of range, set to none) (Total Current Assets 648.0m / Total Current Liabilities 846.0k)
Debt / Equity = 0.23 (Debt 101.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 437.3m)
Debt / EBITDA = -2.07 (Net Debt -458.8m / EBITDA 221.1m)
Debt / FCF = -4.18 (Net Debt -458.8m / FCF TTM 109.8m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 360.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.30% (Net Income 149.2m / Total Assets 2.37b)
RoE = 41.44% (Net Income TTM 149.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 360.1m)
RoCE = 57.36% (EBIT 209.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 360.1m + L.T.Debt 4.25m))
RoIC = 33.84% (NOPAT 154.2m / Invested Capital 455.8m)
WACC = 6.84% (E(853.9m)/V(955.6m) * Re(7.50%) + D(101.7m)/V(955.6m) * Rd(1.82%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 7.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 70.46% ; FCFE base≈160.2m ; Y1≈105.2m ; Y5≈48.1m
Fair Price DCF = 30.59 (DCF Value 945.4m / Shares Outstanding 30.9m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 67.03 | EPS CAGR: 42.81% | SUE: 3.77 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 96.08 | Revenue CAGR: 6.68% | SUE: 0.36 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.43 | Chg30d=+0.065 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.30 | Chg30d=+0.267 | Revisions Net=+3 | Growth EPS=-15.2% | Growth Revenue=+7.3%
Additional Sources for HRTG Stock
News:
Wall Street Journal |
Benzinga |
Yahoo Finance
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle