HTGC Stock Analysis: Hercules Capital | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.163m USD | 12M Return: 5.5% | US4270965084 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 16.8M
EPS Trend: -89.3%
Qual. Beats: -1
Rev. Trend: 55.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a business development company (BDC) that provides private equity, venture debt, and growth capital primarily to venture capital-backed companies at all development stages, from mid-venture through expansion, as well as to select publicly listed and special opportunity companies. Its financing offerings span capital extensions, management buy-outs, acquisition financing (including intellectual property), convertible/subordinated/mezzanine loans, vendor financing, revenue acceleration support, and international expansion capital. The firm also delivers asset-based solutions such as cash flow loans, accounts receivable facilities, equipment loans and leases, working capital revolving lines of credit, and inventory financing, alongside bridge financing for IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, technology acquisitions, dividend recapitalizations, and share price volatility protection. Hercules invests primarily in structured debt with warrants, with smaller allocations to senior debt and equity, generally targeting companies that have been operating for at least six to twelve months prior to investment, with a sector focus on technology, SaaS finance, energy technology, and sustainable industries.
As a BDC, Hercules operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a regulatory framework that allows it to serve as an intermediary source of capital for small and mid-sized private companies that often lack access to traditional public market or bank financing. BDCs are generally required to distribute the majority of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, which shapes their income-oriented investment approach and aligns with their classification within the GICS Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry.
- Net interest spread compresses as base rates decline
- Venture debt originations accelerate with tech funding recovery
- Non-accrual loans rise pressuring NAV and dividend coverage
| Net Income: 357.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: -0.03 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.95 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -105.5% < 20% (prev 2.65%; Δ -108.1% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA -0.03 > 3% & CFO -154.0m > Net Income 357.1m |
| Net Debt (2.53b) to EBITDA (440.7m): 5.73 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (200.1m) vs 12m ago 2.94% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 91.32% > 18% (prev 82.34%; Δ 8.98% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 11.89% > 50% (prev 11.15%; Δ 0.75% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.95 > 6 (EBIT TTM 440.4m / Interest Expense TTM 111.5m) |
| A: -0.12 (Total Current Assets 88.9m - Total Current Liabilities 676.2m) / Total Assets 4.95b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 104.8m / Total Assets 4.95b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 440.4m / Avg Total Assets 4.68b) |
| D: 0.88 (Book Value of Equity 2.32b / Total Liabilities 2.63b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.85 = B |
| DSRI: 0.93 (Receivables 38.3m/36.3m, Revenue 556.8m/491.6m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 82.34% / 91.32%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.98) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 556.8m / 491.6m) |
| TATA: 0.10 (NI 357.1m - CFO -154.0m) / TA 4.95b) |
| Beneish M = -3.07 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 31, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.59 with a total of 2,204,769 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.10%, over one month by -2.24%, over three months by +6.56% and over the past year by +5.47%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.00 (which is 3.6% or 2.1 ATR below the current price).
Hercules Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.56. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HTGC.
- StrongBuy: 6
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.5 | 17.5% |
P/E Trailing = 8.408
P/E Forward = 8.4317
P/S = 5.5868
P/B = 1.3669
P/EG = 0.5247
Revenue TTM = 556.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 440.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 440.7m USD
Long Term Debt = unknown (none)
Short Term Debt = 16.3m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 2.58b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 10.2m
Net Debt = 2.53b USD (calculated: Debt 2.58b - CCE 48.3m)
Enterprise Value = 5.69b USD (3.16b + Debt 2.58b - CCE 48.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.95 (Ebit TTM 440.4m / Interest Expense TTM 111.5m)
EV/FCF = -36.94x (Enterprise Value 5.69b / FCF TTM -154.0m)
FCF Yield = -2.71% (FCF TTM -154.0m / Enterprise Value 5.69b)
FCF Margin = -27.66% (FCF TTM -154.0m / Revenue TTM 556.8m)
Net Margin = 64.13% (Net Income TTM 357.1m / Revenue TTM 556.8m)
Gross Margin = 91.32% ((Revenue TTM 556.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 48.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 90.45% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.15 (Enterprise Value 5.69b / Total Assets 4.95b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.33% (Interest Expense 111.5m / Debt 2.58b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 347.9m (EBIT 440.4m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 88.9m / Total Current Liabilities 676.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.11 (Debt 2.58b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.32b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.73 (Net Debt 2.53b / EBITDA 440.7m)
Debt / FCF = -16.41 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 2.53b / FCF TTM -154.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.26b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.63% (Net Income 357.1m / Total Assets 4.95b)
RoE = 15.80% (Net Income TTM 357.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.26b)
RoCE = 10.30% (EBIT 440.4m / Capital Employed (Total Assets 4.95b - Current Liab 676.2m))
RoIC = 7.13% (NOPAT 347.9m / Invested Capital 4.88b)
WACC = 5.99% (E(3.16b)/V(5.74b) * Re(8.09%) + D(2.58b)/V(5.74b) * Rd(4.33%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.09% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 94.25 | Cagr: 10.05%
[DCF] Fair Price = unknown (Cash Flow -154.0m)
EPS Correlation: -89.31 | EPS CAGR: -3.57% | SUE: -1.29 | # QB: -1
Revenue Correlation: 55.60 | Revenue CAGR: 7.84% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=-0.06% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+1.1% | GrowthRev=+9.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=+0.02% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+1.9% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=1, down=1)