HTGC Stock Analysis: Hercules Capital | NYSE
Asset Management | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.146m USD | 12M Return: -0.1% | US4270965084 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 21.0M
EPS Trend: -78.3%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 51.8%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Hercules Capital, Inc. (HTGC) is a business development company (BDC) that provides private equity, venture debt, and growth capital primarily to venture capital-backed companies at all development stages, from mid-venture through expansion, as well as to select publicly listed and special opportunity companies. Its financing offerings span capital extensions, management buy-outs, acquisition financing (including intellectual property), convertible/subordinated/mezzanine loans, vendor financing, revenue acceleration support, and international expansion capital. The firm also delivers asset-based solutions such as cash flow loans, accounts receivable facilities, equipment loans and leases, working capital revolving lines of credit, and inventory financing, alongside bridge financing for IPOs, mergers and acquisitions, technology acquisitions, dividend recapitalizations, and share price volatility protection. Hercules invests primarily in structured debt with warrants, with smaller allocations to senior debt and equity, generally targeting companies that have been operating for at least six to twelve months prior to investment, with a sector focus on technology, SaaS finance, energy technology, and sustainable industries.
As a BDC, Hercules operates under the Investment Company Act of 1940, a regulatory framework that allows it to serve as an intermediary source of capital for small and mid-sized private companies that often lack access to traditional public market or bank financing. BDCs are generally required to distribute the majority of their taxable income to shareholders in the form of dividends, which shapes their income-oriented investment approach and aligns with their classification within the GICS Asset Management & Custody Banks sub-industry.
- Net interest spread compresses as base rates decline
- Venture debt originations accelerate with tech funding recovery
- Non-accrual loans rise pressuring NAV and dividend coverage
| Net Income: 383.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.00 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 7.27 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -102.0% < 20% (prev -15.07%; Δ -86.94% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.00 > 3% & CFO 8.51m > Net Income 383.2m |
| Net Debt (2.31b) to EBITDA (437.0m): 5.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.13 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (199.6m) vs 12m ago 4.61% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 89.90% > 18% (prev 80.84%; Δ 9.07% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 12.92% > 50% (prev 10.11%; Δ 2.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.13 > 6 (EBIT TTM 436.7m / Interest Expense TTM 105.8m) |
| A: -0.13 (Total Current Assets 84.8m - Total Current Liabilities 676.2m) / Total Assets 4.69b |
| B: 0.02 (Retained Earnings 99.2m / Total Assets 4.69b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 436.7m / Avg Total Assets 4.49b) |
| D: 0.94 (Book Value of Equity 2.27b / Total Liabilities 2.41b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.88 = B |
| DSRI: 0.78 (Receivables 36.6m/34.9m, Revenue 579.8m/433.1m) |
| GMI: 0.90 (GM 80.84% / 89.90%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.98 / AQ_t-1 0.98) |
| SGI: 1.34 (Revenue 579.8m / 433.1m) |
| TATA: 0.08 (NI 383.2m - CFO 8.51m) / TA 4.69b) |
| Beneish M = -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 03, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 16.74 with a total of 1,227,358 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -1.36%, over one month by -5.48%, over three months by +7.39% and over the past year by -0.14%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 16.00 (which is 4.4% or 2.4 ATR below the current price).
Hercules Capital has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy HTGC.
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 19.5 | 16.5% |
P/E Trailing = 8.405
P/E Forward = 8.6133
P/S = 5.557
P/B = 1.3965
P/EG = 0.5247
Revenue TTM = 579.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 436.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 437.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.67b USD (estimated: total debt 2.35b - short term 676.2m)
Short Term Debt = 676.2m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 2.36b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 10.2m
Net Debt = 2.31b USD (calculated: Debt 2.36b - CCE 48.2m)
Enterprise Value = 5.46b USD (3.15b + Debt 2.36b - CCE 48.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.13 (Ebit TTM 436.7m / Interest Expense TTM 105.8m)
EV/FCF = 647.9x (Enterprise Value 5.46b / FCF TTM 8.43m)
FCF Yield = 0.15% (FCF TTM 8.43m / Enterprise Value 5.46b)
FCF Margin = 1.45% (FCF TTM 8.43m / Revenue TTM 579.8m)
Net Margin = 66.09% (Net Income TTM 383.2m / Revenue TTM 579.8m)
Gross Margin = 89.90% ((Revenue TTM 579.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 58.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 70.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.16 (Enterprise Value 5.46b / Total Assets 4.69b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.48% (Interest Expense 105.8m / Debt 2.36b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US federal default 21%)
NOPAT = 345.0m (EBIT 436.7m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 0.13 (Total Current Assets 84.8m / Total Current Liabilities 676.2m)
Debt / Equity = 1.04 (Debt 2.36b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 2.27b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.29 (Net Debt 2.31b / EBITDA 437.0m)
Debt / FCF = 274.4 (Net Debt 2.31b / FCF TTM 8.43m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.23b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.54% (Net Income 383.2m / Total Assets 4.69b)
RoE = 17.21% (Net Income TTM 383.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 2.23b)
RoCE = 11.20% (EBIT 436.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 2.23b + L.T.Debt 1.67b))
RoIC = 7.40% (NOPAT 345.0m / Invested Capital 4.66b)
WACC = 6.45% (E(3.15b)/V(5.51b) * Re(8.64%) + D(2.36b)/V(5.51b) * Rd(4.48%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.64% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: 95.99 | Cagr: 10.97%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈8.43m ; Y1≈8.46m ; Y5≈8.96m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 139.4m - Net Debt 2.31b = -2.17b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -78.29 | EPS CAGR: -3.00% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 51.85 | Revenue CAGR: 7.05% | SUE: 0.29 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=0.48 | Chg30d=-0.02% | Revisions=-25% | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.93 | Chg30d=-0.04% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+1.2% | GrowthRev=+9.3%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=1.97 | Chg30d=+0.01% | Revisions=+25% | GrowthEPS=+1.8% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -17% (up=1, down=2)