(HWM) Howmet Aerospace - Ratings and Ratios
Airfoils, Fasteners, Forgings, Wheels, Titanium
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.23% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.74% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 104.04% |
| Payout Consistency | 85.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 12.7% |
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 36.9% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 52.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -13.46% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.42 |
| Alpha | 43.88 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 3.75 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.524 |
| Beta | 1.183 |
| Beta Downside | 1.322 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 19.41% |
| Mean DD | 3.33% |
| Median DD | 2.19% |
Description: HWM Howmet Aerospace December 03, 2025
Howmet Aerospace (NYSE:HWM) delivers engineered components to aerospace and transportation markets across North America, Europe, and Asia, operating through four distinct segments: Engine Products (airfoils, rolled rings, rotating and structural parts for aircraft engines and gas turbines), Fastening Systems (aerospace and commercial fasteners, latches, bearings, fluid fittings, and tools), Engineered Structures (titanium ingots, aluminum/nickel forgings, machined assemblies for airframe, wing, engine, and landing-gear applications), and Forged Wheels (forged-aluminum wheels for heavy-duty trucks and commercial vehicles). The company, originally Arconic Inc., traces its roots to 1888 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately $2.6 billion, with an adjusted EBITDA margin of ~9%, reflecting strong demand in the commercial jet engine aftermarket while offset by a modest slowdown in new-engine orders. The segment’s exposure to airline capacity growth (global passenger traffic is projected to rise 3-4% YoY in 2025) and to defense spending (U.S. defense budget up ~2% YoY) are primary economic drivers. Additionally, the Forged Wheels business benefits from freight-volume trends; a 5% increase in U.S. truck-load tonnage in Q2 2024 lifted order backlogs, supporting higher utilization rates.
For a deeper dive into HWM’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, check out the ValueRay profile.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income (1.45b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 478.5m TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.09 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -0.02pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 27.57% (prev 25.78%; Δ 1.80pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 1.71b > Net Income 1.45b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (2.53b) to EBITDA (2.24b) ratio: 1.13 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 2.35 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (405.0m) change vs 12m ago -1.22% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 30.03% (prev 26.91%; Δ 3.13pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 73.38% (prev 68.86%; Δ 4.53pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 12.70 (EBITDA TTM 2.24b / Interest Expense TTM 154.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 4.00
| (A) 0.20 = (Total Current Assets 3.82b - Total Current Liabilities 1.62b) / Total Assets 11.18b |
| (B) 0.33 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 3.72b / Total Assets 11.18b |
| (C) 0.18 = EBIT TTM 1.96b / Avg Total Assets 10.87b |
| (D) 0.39 = Book Value of Equity 2.37b / Total Liabilities 6.03b |
| Total Rating: 4.00 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 86.11
| 1. Piotroski 7.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 1.25% |
| 3. FCF Margin 13.27% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.62 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.13 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 8.77)% |
| 7. RoE 29.70% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 98.61% |
| 9. EPS Trend 99.01% |
What is the price of HWM shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -6.65%, over one month by -7.38%, over three months by +7.23% and over the past year by +59.48%.
Is HWM a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 15
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the HWM price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 232.2 | 21.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 232.2 | 21.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 321.7 | 68.4% |
HWM Fundamental Data Overview November 29, 2025
P/E Trailing = 57.4803
P/E Forward = 46.5116
P/S = 10.3277
P/B = 16.1878
P/EG = 0.8035
Beta = 1.319
Revenue TTM = 7.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.96b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.24b USD
Long Term Debt = 3.19b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.00m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.19b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.53b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 84.89b USD (82.36b + Debt 3.19b - CCE 659.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 12.70 (Ebit TTM 1.96b / Interest Expense TTM 154.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.25% (FCF TTM 1.06b / Enterprise Value 84.89b)
FCF Margin = 13.27% (FCF TTM 1.06b / Revenue TTM 7.97b)
Net Margin = 18.18% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Revenue TTM 7.97b)
Gross Margin = 30.03% ((Revenue TTM 7.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 5.58b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 31.21% (prev 30.15%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.60 (Enterprise Value 84.89b / Total Assets 11.18b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.16% (Interest Expense 37.0m / Debt 3.19b)
Taxrate = 22.22% (110.0m / 495.0m)
NOPAT = 1.52b (EBIT 1.96b * (1 - 22.22%))
Current Ratio = 2.35 (Total Current Assets 3.82b / Total Current Liabilities 1.62b)
Debt / Equity = 0.62 (Debt 3.19b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 5.14b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.13 (Net Debt 2.53b / EBITDA 2.24b)
Debt / FCF = 2.39 (Net Debt 2.53b / FCF TTM 1.06b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 4.88b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 12.97% (Net Income 1.45b / Total Assets 11.18b)
RoE = 29.70% (Net Income TTM 1.45b / Total Stockholder Equity 4.88b)
RoCE = 24.24% (EBIT 1.96b / Capital Employed (Equity 4.88b + L.T.Debt 3.19b))
RoIC = 18.78% (NOPAT 1.52b / Invested Capital 8.10b)
WACC = 10.02% (E(82.36b)/V(85.55b) * Re(10.37%) + D(3.19b)/V(85.55b) * Rd(1.16%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 10.37% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -1.09%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 74.25% ; FCFE base≈1.04b ; Y1≈1.28b ; Y5≈2.18b
Fair Price DCF = 62.23 (DCF Value 25.05b / Shares Outstanding 402.5m; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 99.01 | EPS CAGR: 35.99% | SUE: 0.91 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 98.61 | Revenue CAGR: 13.84% | SUE: 1.11 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.01 | Chg30d=+0.014 | Revisions Net=+4 | Analysts=10
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=4.43 | Chg30d=+0.103 | Revisions Net=+15 | Growth EPS=+20.0% | Growth Revenue=+11.0%
Additional Sources for HWM Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle