(JOE) St Joe - Overview
Stock: Homesites, Golf, Hotels, Timber, Retail
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.14% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.10% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 16.03% |
| Payout Consistency | 52.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 39.3% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -7.24% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.27 |
| Alpha | 33.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.675 |
| Beta Downside | 0.577 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.71% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.42 |
Description: JOE St Joe January 11, 2026
The St. Joe Company (NYSE: JOE) is a vertically integrated real-estate developer and asset manager headquartered in Panama City Beach, Florida. It operates through three primary segments-Residential, Hospitality, and Commercial-each focused on different stages of land development, property ownership, and service provision.
In the Residential segment, St. Joe acquires and entitles large tracts of land, then sells homesites to homebuilders or, less frequently, directly to retail customers. The Hospitality segment runs a private membership club ecosystem that includes golf courses, beach clubs, marinas, and related food-and-beverage operations, while also managing Gulf-coast vacation rentals. The Commercial segment leases and develops a mix of office, retail, senior-living, multifamily, self-storage, and industrial properties, and it continues to harvest timber from its forest holdings.
Key data points to watch: • FY 2023 net income was $124 million, with a cash-flow conversion rate of roughly 85 % of earnings, indicating strong liquidity. • The company’s land inventory in the Panhandle and Tallahassee markets exceeded 30,000 acre, providing a pipeline that can support 2–3 years of development at current build-out rates. • Florida’s population is growing at ~1.0 % annually, and the state’s home-builder confidence index has hovered above 70 in Q4 2023, both of which underpin demand for the homesites St. Joe sells. These fundamentals suggest that St. Joe’s earnings are closely tied to regional demographic trends and the broader trajectory of U.S. interest rates, which affect home-buyer financing costs.
If you want a data-driven deep-dive into valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, consider checking out ValueRay’s analytical platform for further insight.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 104.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 8.36 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 17.61% < 20% (prev 14.25%; Δ 3.35% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 176.1m > Net Income 104.6m |
| Net Debt (455.0m) to EBITDA (196.3m): 2.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.91 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (57.9m) vs 12m ago -0.81% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 62.97% > 18% (prev 0.39%; Δ 6258 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 31.74% > 50% (prev 24.92%; Δ 6.82% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 4.72 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 196.3m / Interest Expense TTM 31.4m) |
Altman Z'' 3.19
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 180.9m - Total Current Liabilities 94.8m) / Total Assets 1.53b |
| B: 0.34 (Retained Earnings 515.5m / Total Assets 1.53b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 148.4m / Avg Total Assets 1.54b) |
| D: 1.03 (Book Value of Equity 785.8m / Total Liabilities 763.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 3.19 = A |
Beneish M -3.52
| DSRI: 0.65 (Receivables 38.0m/45.9m, Revenue 488.7m/385.1m) |
| GMI: 0.62 (GM 62.97% / 38.95%) |
| AQI: 0.99 (AQ_t 0.85 / AQ_t-1 0.86) |
| SGI: 1.27 (Revenue 488.7m / 385.1m) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 104.6m - CFO 176.1m) / TA 1.53b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.52 (Cap -4..+1) = AAA |
What is the price of JOE shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.58%, over one month by +11.05%, over three months by +17.31% and over the past year by +46.14%.
Is JOE a buy, sell or hold?
What are the forecasts/targets for the JOE price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 19 | -72.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 19 | -72.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 78.8 | 14.9% |
JOE Fundamental Data Overview February 02, 2026
P/S = 7.8433
P/B = 5.079
P/EG = -2.72
Revenue TTM = 488.7m USD
EBIT TTM = 148.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 196.3m USD
Long Term Debt = 577.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.92m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 581.1m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 455.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 4.29b USD (3.83b + Debt 581.1m - CCE 126.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 4.72 (Ebit TTM 148.4m / Interest Expense TTM 31.4m)
EV/FCF = 26.77x (Enterprise Value 4.29b / FCF TTM 160.2m)
FCF Yield = 3.74% (FCF TTM 160.2m / Enterprise Value 4.29b)
FCF Margin = 32.78% (FCF TTM 160.2m / Revenue TTM 488.7m)
Net Margin = 21.41% (Net Income TTM 104.6m / Revenue TTM 488.7m)
Gross Margin = 62.97% ((Revenue TTM 488.7m - Cost of Revenue TTM 181.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 73.61% (prev 81.56%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.80 (Enterprise Value 4.29b / Total Assets 1.53b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.34% (Interest Expense 7.79m / Debt 581.1m)
Taxrate = 25.46% (13.7m / 53.9m)
NOPAT = 110.6m (EBIT 148.4m * (1 - 25.46%))
Current Ratio = 1.91 (Total Current Assets 180.9m / Total Current Liabilities 94.8m)
Debt / Equity = 0.76 (Debt 581.1m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 760.7m)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.32 (Net Debt 455.0m / EBITDA 196.3m)
Debt / FCF = 2.84 (Net Debt 455.0m / FCF TTM 160.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 737.9m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.79% (Net Income 104.6m / Total Assets 1.53b)
RoE = 14.18% (Net Income TTM 104.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 737.9m)
RoCE = 11.28% (EBIT 148.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 737.9m + L.T.Debt 577.7m))
RoIC = 8.25% (NOPAT 110.6m / Invested Capital 1.34b)
WACC = 7.43% (E(3.83b)/V(4.41b) * Re(8.40%) + D(581.1m)/V(4.41b) * Rd(1.34%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 8.40% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -0.42%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 82.78% ; FCFF base≈109.0m ; Y1≈130.5m ; Y5≈207.4m
Fair Price DCF = 61.08 (EV 3.98b - Net Debt 455.0m = Equity 3.53b / Shares 57.7m; r=7.43% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 21.03% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 26.44 | EPS CAGR: 5.88% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 70.50 | Revenue CAGR: 13.72% | SUE: N/A | # QB: 0