(LAC) Lithium Americas - Ratings and Ratios
Lithium, Brine, Clay, Nevada, Canada
Dividends
Currently no dividends paid| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 71.7% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 103% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.26% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.79 |
| Alpha | 26.84 |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.33 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.272 |
| Beta | 1.166 |
| Beta Downside | 2.120 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 81.83% |
| Mean DD | 64.20% |
| Median DD | 72.27% |
Description: LAC Lithium Americas October 23, 2025
Lithium Americas Corp. (NYSE:LAC) is a Vancouver-based miner that develops, builds, and operates lithium-rich hard-rock deposits and downstream chemical processing facilities across the United States and Canada. Its core asset is the Thacker Pass project in the McDermitt Caldera of northern Nevada, which is slated to become one of the largest domestic sources of battery-grade lithium in the United States.
Key operational metrics (as of Q2 2024) show Thacker Pass targeting an initial production capacity of ~ 65,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate equivalent (LCE) per year, with a projected cash-cost of roughly $5,500 per tonne LCE-significantly below the current market average of $7,000-$8,000 per tonne. The company also holds a 100 % interest in the Cauchari-Olaroz joint-venture in Argentina, which contributed ~ 30,000 tonnes LCE in 2023, providing a diversified revenue stream.
Sector drivers that materially affect LAC’s outlook include the accelerating demand for electric-vehicle batteries (global EV sales grew ≈ 45 % YoY in 2023) and the U.S. Inflation Reduction Act, which offers tax credits for domestically sourced lithium, thereby tightening the supply-side premium for projects like Thacker Pass. Conversely, the company’s 2023 incorporation date and relatively short operating history introduce execution risk, especially around permitting and capital-raising timelines.
For a deeper, data-driven dive into LAC’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find the free analytical tools on ValueRay useful as a next step in your research.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income (-241.5m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = -1.02 TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.45 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -16.35pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -1.68b% (prev 607.8k%; Δ -1.68bpp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA -0.04 (>3.0%) and CFO -56.6m > Net Income -241.5m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| NO Net Debt/EBITDA fails (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio 3.77 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (238.7m) change vs 12m ago 9.48% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 8.51m% (prev -154.4%; Δ 8.51mpp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover -0.00% (prev 0.01%; Δ -0.01pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio -7890 (EBITDA TTM -242.6m / Interest Expense TTM 31.0k) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.01
| (A) 0.20 = (Total Current Assets 388.6m - Total Current Liabilities 103.1m) / Total Assets 1.45b |
| (B) -0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -276.5m / Total Assets 1.45b |
| (C) -0.23 = EBIT TTM -244.6m / Avg Total Assets 1.07b |
| (D) 0.82 = Book Value of Equity 452.7m / Total Liabilities 555.3m |
| Total Rating: -0.01 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 29.61
| 1. Piotroski 2.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -37.47% |
| 3. FCF Margin data missing |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.85 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda -0.08 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= -32.99)% |
| 7. RoE -41.06% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 8.40% |
| 9. EPS Trend 36.68% |
What is the price of LAC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.94%, over one month by +5.13%, over three months by +79.02% and over the past year by +54.22%.
Is LAC a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 4
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LAC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 6 | 16.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 6 | 16.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5.2 | 0.6% |
LAC Fundamental Data Overview December 02, 2025
P/E Forward = 40.0
P/S = 177.9725
P/B = 3.5923
Beta = 3.452
Revenue TTM = -17.0 USD
EBIT TTM = -244.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -242.6m USD
Long Term Debt = 387.0m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.60m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 405.3m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 20.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.73b USD (1.71b + Debt 405.3m - CCE 385.3m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -7890 (Ebit TTM -244.6m / Interest Expense TTM 31.0k)
FCF Yield = -37.47% (FCF TTM -647.7m / Enterprise Value 1.73b)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -17.0
FCF Margin = 3.81b% (FCF TTM -647.7m / Revenue TTM -17.0)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -17.0
Net Margin = 1.42b% (Net Income TTM -241.5m / Revenue TTM -17.0)
WARNING: Negative Revenue TTM = -17.0
Gross Margin = 9999 % ((Revenue TTM -17.0 - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.45m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev none%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.19 (Enterprise Value 1.73b / Total Assets 1.45b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.01% (Interest Expense 31.0k / Debt 405.3m)
Taxrate = 26.26% (-10.7m / -40.6m)
NOPAT = -180.3m (EBIT -244.6m * (1 - 26.26%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 3.77 (Total Current Assets 388.6m / Total Current Liabilities 103.1m)
Debt / Equity = 0.85 (Debt 405.3m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 475.6m)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.08 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt 20.0m / EBITDA -242.6m)
Debt / FCF = -0.03 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 20.0m / FCF TTM -647.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 588.1m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -16.64% (Net Income -241.5m / Total Assets 1.45b)
RoE = -41.06% (Net Income TTM -241.5m / Total Stockholder Equity 588.1m)
RoCE = -25.08% (EBIT -244.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 588.1m + L.T.Debt 387.0m))
RoIC = -24.65% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -180.3m / Invested Capital 731.6m)
WACC = 8.33% (E(1.71b)/V(2.11b) * Re(10.31%) + D(405.3m)/V(2.11b) * Rd(0.01%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 10.31% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 21.47%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -647.7m)
EPS Correlation: 36.68 | EPS CAGR: 7.42% | SUE: 0.96 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: 8.40 | Revenue CAGR: 0.0% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.08 | Chg30d=-0.010 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.41 | Chg30d=-0.107 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+42.9% | Growth Revenue=+0.0%
Additional Sources for LAC Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle