(LLY) Eli Lilly - Ratings and Ratios
Insulin, Diabetes, Oncology, Immunology, Neuroscience
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.56% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.79% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 15.13% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.1% |
| Payout Ratio | 27.3% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 32.2% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 46.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -12.01% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.99 |
| Alpha | 28.51 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.31 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.526 |
| Beta | 0.633 |
| Beta Downside | 0.708 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 34.48% |
| Mean DD | 8.40% |
| Median DD | 5.74% |
Description: LLY Eli Lilly December 01, 2025
Eli Lilly (NYSE: LLY) is a global pharmaceutical firm that discovers, develops, and markets prescription medicines across the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and other regions. Its product portfolio spans insulin therapies (e.g., Humalog, Humulin), type-2 diabetes agents (Jardiance, Mounjaro, Trulicity) and the obesity drug Zepbound, as well as oncology treatments (Alimta, Cyramza, Erbitux, Retevmo, Verzenio), immunology and inflammatory agents (Olumiant, Taltz, Omvoh), and CNS/pain medicines (Cymbalta, Emgality). The company also maintains a broad network of collaborations with firms such as Incyte, Boehringer Ingelheim, Roche/Genentech, AbCellera, NVIDIA, and Insilico Medicine to accelerate pipeline development.
Key recent metrics: FY 2023 revenue reached approximately **$28.5 billion**, with diluted EPS of **$8.80**, driven largely by double-digit growth in the diabetes/obesity franchise (Mounjaro and Zepbound together contributed >$5 billion). The diabetes market’s CAGR of ~7 % and rising global obesity prevalence (projected to affect >30 % of adults by 2030) are core economic tailwinds for Lilly’s pipeline. Additionally, the company’s R&D spend of **~$6 billion** (≈21 % of revenue) places it in the top quartile of pharma spend, supporting a robust pipeline of late-stage candidates.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, consider reviewing ValueRay’s analyst tools to explore LLY’s valuation sensitivities and peer-group benchmarks.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income (18.41b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 3.57b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.08 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 10.73pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue 36.91% (prev 16.50%; Δ 20.41pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 (>3.0%) and CFO 16.06b <= Net Income 18.41b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (32.71b) to EBITDA (25.30b) ratio: 1.29 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 1.55 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (898.8m) change vs 12m ago -0.69% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 83.03% (prev 80.91%; Δ 2.12pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 62.37% (prev 54.05%; Δ 8.32pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 26.09 (EBITDA TTM 25.30b / Interest Expense TTM 897.0m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 3.76
| (A) 0.19 = (Total Current Assets 62.07b - Total Current Liabilities 40.14b) / Total Assets 114.94b |
| (B) 0.19 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 22.25b / Total Assets 114.94b |
| (C) 0.25 = EBIT TTM 23.40b / Avg Total Assets 95.27b |
| (D) 0.22 = Book Value of Equity 19.64b / Total Liabilities 91.08b |
| Total Rating: 3.76 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 82.83
| 1. Piotroski 7.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 0.91% |
| 3. FCF Margin 15.18% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.79 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.29 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 23.87)% |
| 7. RoE 102.3% |
| 8. Rev. Trend 91.63% |
| 9. EPS Trend 36.09% |
What is the price of LLY shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.35%, over one month by +0.59%, over three months by +42.80% and over the past year by +36.20%.
Is LLY a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 16
- Buy: 7
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the LLY price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 1093.2 | 1.6% |
| Analysts Target Price | 1093.2 | 1.6% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 1465.2 | 36.1% |
LLY Fundamental Data Overview December 20, 2025
P/E Trailing = 52.6248
P/E Forward = 33.2226
P/S = 16.1646
P/B = 39.756
P/EG = 0.9908
Beta = 0.369
Revenue TTM = 59.42b USD
EBIT TTM = 23.40b USD
EBITDA TTM = 25.30b USD
Long Term Debt = 40.87b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.63b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 42.51b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 32.71b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 993.21b USD (960.50b + Debt 42.51b - CCE 9.79b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 26.09 (Ebit TTM 23.40b / Interest Expense TTM 897.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.91% (FCF TTM 9.02b / Enterprise Value 993.21b)
FCF Margin = 15.18% (FCF TTM 9.02b / Revenue TTM 59.42b)
Net Margin = 30.99% (Net Income TTM 18.41b / Revenue TTM 59.42b)
Gross Margin = 83.03% ((Revenue TTM 59.42b - Cost of Revenue TTM 10.08b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 82.91% (prev 84.27%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.64 (Enterprise Value 993.21b / Total Assets 114.94b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.42% (Interest Expense 179.6m / Debt 42.51b)
Taxrate = 22.81% (1.65b / 7.23b)
NOPAT = 18.06b (EBIT 23.40b * (1 - 22.81%))
Current Ratio = 1.55 (Total Current Assets 62.07b / Total Current Liabilities 40.14b)
Debt / Equity = 1.79 (Debt 42.51b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 23.79b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.29 (Net Debt 32.71b / EBITDA 25.30b)
Debt / FCF = 3.63 (Net Debt 32.71b / FCF TTM 9.02b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 18.01b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.02% (Net Income 18.41b / Total Assets 114.94b)
RoE = 102.3% (Net Income TTM 18.41b / Total Stockholder Equity 18.01b)
RoCE = 39.74% (EBIT 23.40b / Capital Employed (Equity 18.01b + L.T.Debt 40.87b))
RoIC = 31.88% (NOPAT 18.06b / Invested Capital 56.65b)
WACC = 8.01% (E(960.50b)/V(1003.01b) * Re(8.35%) + D(42.51b)/V(1003.01b) * Rd(0.42%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 8.35% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.29%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 69.09% ; FCFE base≈9.02b ; Y1≈5.92b ; Y5≈2.71b
Fair Price DCF = 56.47 (DCF Value 50.54b / Shares Outstanding 895.0m; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: 36.09 | EPS CAGR: 31.84% | SUE: 1.26 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 91.63 | Revenue CAGR: 23.40% | SUE: 2.36 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=7.46 | Chg30d=-0.043 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=9
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=32.53 | Chg30d=+0.421 | Revisions Net=+9 | Growth EPS=+37.6% | Growth Revenue=+20.3%
Additional Sources for LLY Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle