LLY Stock Analysis: Eli Lilly | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - General | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 1.215.626m USD | 12M Return: 42.2% | US5324571083 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 3.81B
EPS Trend: 99.2%
Qual. Beats: 3
Rev. Trend: 99.7%
Qual. Beats: 6
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.9 years of data, until 10/2026
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, ≥40 worth a closer look and ≥60 is strong.
Eli Lilly and Company is a global pharmaceutical company founded in 1876 and headquartered in Indianapolis, Indiana. It discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets human pharmaceutical products across the United States, Europe, China, Japan, and other international markets. The company operates across four primary therapeutic areas: cardiometabolic health (with a particularly strong portfolio in diabetes and obesity treatments such as Mounjaro, Trulicity, Zepbound, and established insulin brands like Humalog and Humulin), oncology (including Verzenio, Erbitux, Cyramza, and Jaypirca), immunology (Olumiant, Taltz, Omvoh, Ebglyss), and neuroscience (Emgality for migraine and Kisunla for Alzheimers disease).
The company maintains an extensive external innovation network, holding collaborations and licensing agreements with Boehringer Ingelheim (Jardiance family), Roche/Genentech (lebrikizumab), Almirall (Ebglyss), Chugai Pharmaceutical (orforglipron), Ascidian Therapeutics, BioArctic, QurCan Therapeutics, and Abbisko Therapeutics. As a Mega Cap pharmaceutical company listed on the NYSE, Eli Lilly operates in the highly regulated biopharmaceutical sector, where revenue is largely driven by patent-protected blockbuster therapies and a deep pipeline of investigational drugs developed both internally and through partnerships.
- Mounjaro and Zepbound sales surge past consensus estimates
- Novo Nordisk oral GLP-1 competition threatens market share
- Manufacturing capacity expansion boosts incretin supply and margins
| Net Income: 27.6b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.43 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 21.13% < 20% (prev 36.91%; Δ -15.78% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.21 > 3% & CFO 30.6b > Net Income 27.6b |
| Net Debt (45.1b) to EBITDA (44.8b): 1.01 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.39 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (893.4m) vs 12m ago -0.60% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 83.63% > 18% (prev 83.03%; Δ 0.61% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 65.75% > 50% (prev 51.70%; Δ 14.05% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 36.14 > 6 (EBIT TTM 42.6b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b) |
| A: 0.12 (Total Current Assets 65.3b - Total Current Liabilities 47.0b) / Total Assets 148b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 38.0b / Total Assets 148b) |
| C: 0.32 (EBIT TTM 42.6b / Avg Total Assets 132b) |
| D: 0.37 (Book Value of Equity 40.3b / Total Liabilities 108b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 4.21 = AA |
| DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 25.2b/19.5b, Revenue 86.5b/59.4b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 83.03% / 83.63%) |
| AQI: 1.29 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.27) |
| SGI: 1.46 (Revenue 86.5b / 59.4b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 27.6b - CFO 30.6b) / TA 148b) |
| Beneish M = -2.63 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 15, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 1443.50 with a total of 1,871,585 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.74%, over one month by +23.90%, over three months by +19.71% and over the past year by +42.18%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 1388.00 (which is 3.8% or 1.2 ATR below the current price).
Eli Lilly has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.39. Therefore, it is recommended to buy LLY.
- StrongBuy: 20
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 1442.1 | -0.1% |
P/E Trailing = 46.028
P/E Forward = 28.49
P/S = 14.0597
P/B = 31.3642
P/EG = 1.3105
Revenue TTM = 86.5b USD
EBIT TTM = 42.6b USD
EBITDA TTM = 44.8b USD
Long Term Debt = 47.0b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.52b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 50.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 486.7m
Net Debt = 45.1b USD (calculated: Debt 50.0b - CCE 4.88b)
Enterprise Value = 1261b USD (1216b + Debt 50.0b - CCE 4.88b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 36.14 (Ebit TTM 42.6b / Interest Expense TTM 1.18b)
EV/FCF = 64.12x (Enterprise Value 1261b / FCF TTM 19.7b)
FCF Yield = 1.56% (FCF TTM 19.7b / Enterprise Value 1261b)
FCF Margin = 22.74% (FCF TTM 19.7b / Revenue TTM 86.5b)
Net Margin = 31.90% (Net Income TTM 27.6b / Revenue TTM 86.5b)
Gross Margin = 83.63% ((Revenue TTM 86.5b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.1b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 83.88% (prev 85.78%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 8.51 (Enterprise Value 1261b / Total Assets 148b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 2.36% (Interest Expense 1.18b / Debt 50.0b)
Taxrate = 20.68% (7.19b / 34.8b)
NOPAT = 33.8b (EBIT 42.6b * (1 - 20.68%))
Current Ratio = 1.39 (Total Current Assets 65.3b / Total Current Liabilities 47.0b)
Debt / Equity = 1.24 (Debt 50.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 40.3b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.01 (Net Debt 45.1b / EBITDA 44.8b)
Debt / FCF = 2.29 (Net Debt 45.1b / FCF TTM 19.7b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 33.0b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 20.97% (Net Income 27.6b / Total Assets 148b)
RoE = 83.65% (Net Income TTM 27.6b / Total Stockholder Equity 33.0b)
RoCE = 53.25% (EBIT 42.6b / Capital Employed (Equity 33.0b + L.T.Debt 47.0b))
RoIC = 34.02% (NOPAT 33.8b / Invested Capital 99.3b)
WACC = 6.24% (E(1216b)/V(1266b) * Re(6.42%) + D(50.0b)/V(1266b) * Rd(2.36%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 6.42% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.54 | Cagr: -0.53%
[DCF] Terminal Value 77.97% ; FCFF base≈15.4b ; Y1≈17.7b ; Y5≈26.0b
[DCF] Fair Price = 388.4 (EV 391b - Net Debt 45.1b = Equity 346b / Shares 890.7m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 15.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 99.24 | EPS CAGR: 88.43% | SUE: 2.26 | # QB: 3
Revenue Correlation: 99.69 | Revenue CAGR: 41.80% | SUE: 1.69 | # QB: 6
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=10.94 | Chg30d=+9.86% | Revisions=-17% | Analysts=6
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=35.35 | Chg30d=-4.32% | Revisions=-77% | GrowthEPS=+46.0% | GrowthRev=+40.9%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=50.15 | Chg30d=+5.38% | Revisions=+48% | GrowthEPS=+41.9% | GrowthRev=+15.3%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -19% (up=16, down=24)