(LUMN) Lumen Technologies - Overview
Stock: Fiber, IP, Voice, Ethernet, Cloud
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 173% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.2% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.93 |
| Alpha | 33.68 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 2.113 |
| Beta Downside | 1.945 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 75.86% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.36 |
Description: LUMN Lumen Technologies January 09, 2026
Lumen Technologies (NYSE:LUMN) is a U.S.–based networking firm that delivers integrated communications products and services to both business and mass-market customers worldwide. It operates through two primary segments-Business and Mass Markets-and offers a portfolio that spans dark fiber and conduit, edge-cloud platforms, IP and VoIP services, managed security, SD-WAN, unified communications, optical transport, Ethernet/VPN data networking, and a range of legacy offerings such as SONET-based Ethernet, time-division multiplexed voice, and private line services. The company also markets broadband (both high-speed and lower-speed) to residential and small-business users, along with voice, professional, and ancillary services, and participates in federal and state broadband initiatives. Its brands include Lumen, Quantum Fiber, CenturyLink, and Black Lotus Labs.
From recent filings, Lumen reported FY 2023 revenue of roughly **$15.5 billion** and an adjusted EBITDA margin near **15 %**, while carrying **≈ $30 billion** of long-term debt-a balance sheet profile that makes interest-rate risk a material concern. The firm’s fiber footprint now exceeds **350,000 miles**, positioning it to capture growth from enterprise edge-computing demand and the broader shift toward private-line connectivity for cloud-native workloads. A key sector driver is the accelerating migration of corporate IT workloads to hybrid-cloud architectures, which is boosting demand for low-latency, high-capacity fiber and managed security services-areas where Lumen’s legacy infrastructure can be monetized if it successfully modernizes its network and reduces churn in the mass-market segment.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Lumen’s valuation and risk profile, you may find it useful to explore the analytics available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: -1.65b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.04 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 37.63% < 20% (prev 5.99%; Δ 31.64% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.14 > 3% & CFO 4.86b > Net Income -1.65b |
| Net Debt (15.54b) to EBITDA (1.87b): 8.32 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.21 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (996.0m) vs 12m ago 0.73% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 47.07% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 4669 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 37.17% > 50% (prev 39.12%; Δ -1.95% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.71 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.87b / Interest Expense TTM 1.36b) |
Altman Z'' -1.18
| A: 0.14 (Total Current Assets 8.71b - Total Current Liabilities 3.93b) / Total Assets 34.29b |
| B: -0.57 (Retained Earnings -19.70b / Total Assets 34.29b) |
| C: -0.03 (EBIT TTM -965.0m / Avg Total Assets 34.14b) |
| D: -0.03 (Book Value of Equity -1.17b / Total Liabilities 35.46b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -1.18 = CCC |
Beneish M -3.23
| DSRI: 1.44 (Receivables 1.72b/1.25b, Revenue 12.69b/13.30b) |
| GMI: 0.81 (GM 47.07% / 38.12%) |
| AQI: 0.72 (AQ_t 0.19 / AQ_t-1 0.26) |
| SGI: 0.95 (Revenue 12.69b / 13.30b) |
| TATA: -0.19 (NI -1.65b - CFO 4.86b) / TA 34.29b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.23 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of LUMN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.62%, over one month by -2.89%, over three months by -26.33% and over the past year by +60.88%.
Is LUMN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the LUMN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 7.8 | -3.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 7.8 | -3.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 7.8 | -2.9% |
LUMN Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/S = 0.7221
P/B = 14.6194
P/EG = 54.5753
Revenue TTM = 12.69b USD
EBIT TTM = -965.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.87b USD
Long Term Debt = 17.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 367.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 17.95b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.54b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 24.71b USD (9.16b + Debt 17.95b - CCE 2.40b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.71 (Ebit TTM -965.0m / Interest Expense TTM 1.36b)
EV/FCF = 20.15x (Enterprise Value 24.71b / FCF TTM 1.23b)
FCF Yield = 4.96% (FCF TTM 1.23b / Enterprise Value 24.71b)
FCF Margin = 9.66% (FCF TTM 1.23b / Revenue TTM 12.69b)
Net Margin = -13.02% (Net Income TTM -1.65b / Revenue TTM 12.69b)
Gross Margin = 47.07% ((Revenue TTM 12.69b - Cost of Revenue TTM 6.72b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 44.93% (prev 47.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.72 (Enterprise Value 24.71b / Total Assets 34.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.78% (Interest Expense 319.0m / Debt 17.95b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -762.4m (EBIT -965.0m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.21 (Total Current Assets 8.71b / Total Current Liabilities 3.93b)
Debt / Equity = -15.30 (negative equity) (Debt 17.95b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -1.17b)
Debt / EBITDA = 8.32 (Net Debt 15.54b / EBITDA 1.87b)
Debt / FCF = 12.68 (Net Debt 15.54b / FCF TTM 1.23b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -253.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -4.84% (Net Income -1.65b / Total Assets 34.29b)
RoE = 651.0% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -1.65b / Total Stockholder Equity -253.8m)
RoCE = -5.57% (EBIT -965.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -253.8m + L.T.Debt 17.58b))
RoIC = -4.35% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -762.4m / Invested Capital 17.53b)
WACC = 5.56% (E(9.16b)/V(27.11b) * Re(13.70%) + D(17.95b)/V(27.11b) * Rd(1.78%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 13.70% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.62%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈1.25b ; Y1≈822.1m ; Y5≈375.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 11.95b - Net Debt 15.54b = -3.59b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: -77.26 | EPS CAGR: -30.81% | SUE: 2.36 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -95.24 | Revenue CAGR: -11.34% | SUE: 0.75 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.19 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.46 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+17.3% | Growth Revenue=-7.0%