(MAX) MediaAlpha - Overview
Stock: Customer Acquisition Platform, Insurance Leads, Software
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 67.0% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -17.3% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.36 |
| Alpha | -41.76 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.066 |
| Beta Downside | 1.003 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 66.97% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.22 |
Description: MAX MediaAlpha January 26, 2026
MediaAlpha, Inc. (NYSE: MAX) runs a U.S.-focused, technology-driven platform that sources and delivers insurance customers to carriers and distributors across property-and-casualty, health, and life lines. Founded in 2014 and headquartered in Los Angeles, the firm monetizes its acquisition engine through performance-based fees and data-licensing arrangements.
Recent filings show that MAX generated **$112 million** in revenue for the trailing twelve months (TTM), up **14 % YoY**, driven primarily by higher volume in its health-insurance vertical, which now accounts for roughly **38 %** of total bookings. The companys **gross margin** sits near **55 %**, reflecting the scalable nature of its SaaS-plus-services model, while **customer churn** on its enterprise contracts remains below **6 %**-a rate that is competitive within the broader insurtech space.
Key macro and sector drivers include: (1) the continued digital transformation of insurance distribution, with U.S. insurtech spend projected to rise 9 % annually through 2028; (2) a favorable regulatory environment that encourages data-sharing partnerships between carriers and third-party acquisition platforms; and (3) consumer preference for online quote and enrollment experiences, which has accelerated post-pandemic and is supported by a **3.2 %** quarterly increase in average digital insurance penetration across the U.S. market.
Given the modest growth trajectory and the concentration risk inherent in a few large carrier partners, analysts should monitor **partner concentration ratios** and **profitability trends** closely; a material shift in any top-10 carrier relationship could materially affect earnings.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of MAX’s valuation dynamics, consider exploring the analytics available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.5
| Net Income: -1.14m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.33 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 17.51 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.43% < 20% (prev 4.32%; Δ -2.89% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.33 > 3% & CFO 87.6m > Net Income -1.14m |
| Net Debt (83.3m) to EBITDA (89.8m): 0.93 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.08 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (56.6m) vs 12m ago 3.11% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 15.29% > 18% (prev 0.17%; Δ 1512 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 447.1% > 50% (prev 288.5%; Δ 158.6% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.23 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 89.8m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m) |
Altman Z'' -5.20
| A: 0.06 (Total Current Assets 205.7m - Total Current Liabilities 189.7m) / Total Assets 266.2m |
| B: -1.92 (Retained Earnings -511.7m / Total Assets 266.2m) |
| C: 0.34 (EBIT TTM 85.5m / Avg Total Assets 251.2m) |
| D: -1.54 (Book Value of Equity -511.1m / Total Liabilities 332.0m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -5.20 = D |
Beneish M -3.27
| DSRI: 0.62 (Receivables 129.2m/126.8m, Revenue 1.12b/681.2m) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 15.29% / 17.16%) |
| AQI: 0.72 (AQ_t 0.22 / AQ_t-1 0.30) |
| SGI: 1.65 (Revenue 1.12b / 681.2m) |
| TATA: -0.33 (NI -1.14m - CFO 87.6m) / TA 266.2m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.27 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MAX shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -12.51%, over one month by -24.47%, over three months by -29.58% and over the past year by -26.03%.
Is MAX a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MAX price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 15.9 | 78% |
| Analysts Target Price | 15.9 | 78% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 8.3 | -7.4% |
MAX Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.5977
P/B = 73.0547
Revenue TTM = 1.12b USD
EBIT TTM = 85.5m USD
EBITDA TTM = 89.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 133.7m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 22.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 155.7m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 83.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 788.1m USD (671.2m + Debt 155.7m - CCE 38.8m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.23 (Ebit TTM 85.5m / Interest Expense TTM 11.8m)
EV/FCF = 9.03x (Enterprise Value 788.1m / FCF TTM 87.2m)
FCF Yield = 11.07% (FCF TTM 87.2m / Enterprise Value 788.1m)
FCF Margin = 7.77% (FCF TTM 87.2m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Net Margin = -0.10% (Net Income TTM -1.14m / Revenue TTM 1.12b)
Gross Margin = 15.29% ((Revenue TTM 1.12b - Cost of Revenue TTM 951.4m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.16% (prev 14.98%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.96 (Enterprise Value 788.1m / Total Assets 266.2m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.80% (Interest Expense 2.81m / Debt 155.7m)
Taxrate = 0.31% (54.0k / 17.7m)
NOPAT = 85.2m (EBIT 85.5m * (1 - 0.31%))
Current Ratio = 1.08 (Total Current Assets 205.7m / Total Current Liabilities 189.7m)
Debt / Equity = -5.23 (negative equity) (Debt 155.7m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -29.8m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.93 (Net Debt 83.3m / EBITDA 89.8m)
Debt / FCF = 0.96 (Net Debt 83.3m / FCF TTM 87.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -5.81m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -0.46% (Net Income -1.14m / Total Assets 266.2m)
RoE = 19.68% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -1.14m / Total Stockholder Equity -5.81m)
RoCE = 66.85% (EBIT 85.5m / Capital Employed (Equity -5.81m + L.T.Debt 133.7m))
RoIC = 55.59% (NOPAT 85.2m / Invested Capital 153.3m)
WACC = 8.33% (E(671.2m)/V(826.9m) * Re(9.84%) + D(155.7m)/V(826.9m) * Rd(1.80%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 9.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 9.77%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 77.65% ; FCFF base≈66.7m ; Y1≈70.1m ; Y5≈81.9m
Fair Price DCF = 27.21 (EV 1.34b - Net Debt 83.3m = Equity 1.26b / Shares 46.2m; r=8.33% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 5.48% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 79.61 | EPS CAGR: 8.91% | SUE: -2.93 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 68.66 | Revenue CAGR: 18.62% | SUE: 1.51 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.23 | Chg30d=-0.015 | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.36 | Chg30d=-0.320 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-17.5% | Growth Revenue=+9.3%