(MBI) MBIA - Overview
Stock: Bond Insurance, Municipal, Structured Finance, Reinsurance
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 54.9% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -15.5% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.13 |
| Alpha | -19.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.826 |
| Beta Downside | 1.235 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 55.76% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.07 |
Description: MBI MBIA January 02, 2026
MBIA Inc. (NYSE: MBI) and its subsidiaries specialize in financial-guarantee insurance for U.S. public-finance markets, issuing credit support for municipal bonds and a range of infrastructure projects, while also providing reinsurance and covering international sovereign-related debt.
Key performance indicators as of the latest filing show annual revenue of roughly $1.2 billion, a combined ratio near 95 % (indicating underwriting profitability), and a net income margin of about 7 %. The firm maintains an “A-” long-term credit rating from S&P, reflecting strong capital adequacy despite recent volatility in the municipal bond market.
Sector drivers include the volume of municipal bond issuance, which is highly sensitive to U.S. interest-rate trends and state fiscal health; a prolonged low-rate environment typically boosts issuance and, by extension, demand for guarantee insurance. Additionally, the ongoing push for infrastructure renewal under federal programs (e.g., the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act) is expected to increase the pipeline of eligible projects.
For a deeper, data-rich look at MBIA’s risk profile and valuation metrics, you may find ValueRay’s analytical dashboard worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 1.0
| Net Income: -174.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.02 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1145 % < 20% (prev 14.3k%; Δ -13.1k% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.02 > 3% & CFO 51.0m > Net Income -174.0m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 6.72 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (49.6m) vs 12m ago 4.04% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: -111.2% > 18% (prev -26.86%; Δ -8438 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 4.15% > 50% (prev 0.31%; Δ 3.84% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.97 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -26.0m / Interest Expense TTM 199.0m) |
Altman Z'' 0.76
| A: 0.49 (Total Current Assets 1.20b - Total Current Liabilities 178.0m) / Total Assets 2.06b |
| B: -0.83 (Retained Earnings -1.72b / Total Assets 2.06b) |
| C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 194.0m / Avg Total Assets 2.15b) |
| D: -0.36 (Book Value of Equity -1.52b / Total Liabilities 4.23b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.76 = B |
Beneish M 1.00
| DSRI: 0.04 (Receivables 164.0m/340.0m, Revenue 89.0m/7.00m) |
| GMI: 1.00 (fallback, negative margins) |
| AQI: 0.91 (AQ_t 0.42 / AQ_t-1 0.46) |
| SGI: 12.71 (Revenue 89.0m / 7.00m) |
| TATA: -0.11 (NI -174.0m - CFO 51.0m) / TA 2.06b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 4.42 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of MBI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +2.81%, over one month by -3.24%, over three months by -9.86% and over the past year by -4.08%.
Is MBI a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MBI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 7.8 | 17.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 7.8 | 17.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 6.2 | -6.2% |
MBI Fundamental Data Overview February 05, 2026
P/S = 3.578
P/B = 3.5247
P/EG = -0.9
Revenue TTM = 89.0m USD
EBIT TTM = 194.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = -26.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 3.35b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 45.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 3.35b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.28b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 3.62b USD (332.8m + Debt 3.35b - CCE 64.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.97 (Ebit TTM 194.0m / Interest Expense TTM 199.0m)
EV/FCF = 70.92x (Enterprise Value 3.62b / FCF TTM 51.0m)
FCF Yield = 1.41% (FCF TTM 51.0m / Enterprise Value 3.62b)
FCF Margin = 57.30% (FCF TTM 51.0m / Revenue TTM 89.0m)
Net Margin = -195.5% (Net Income TTM -174.0m / Revenue TTM 89.0m)
Gross Margin = -111.2% ((Revenue TTM 89.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 188.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = none% (prev 60.87%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.76 (Enterprise Value 3.62b / Total Assets 2.06b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.49% (Interest Expense 50.0m / Debt 3.35b)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = 153.3m (EBIT 194.0m * (1 - 21.00%))
Current Ratio = 6.72 (Total Current Assets 1.20b / Total Current Liabilities 178.0m)
Debt / Equity = -1.54 (negative equity) (Debt 3.35b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -2.18b)
Debt / EBITDA = -126.1 (out of range, set to none) (Net Debt 3.28b / EBITDA -26.0m)
Debt / FCF = 64.29 (Net Debt 3.28b / FCF TTM 51.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = -2.14b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -8.11% (Net Income -174.0m / Total Assets 2.06b)
RoE = 8.12% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM -174.0m / Total Stockholder Equity -2.14b)
RoCE = 16.10% (EBIT 194.0m / Capital Employed (Equity -2.14b + L.T.Debt 3.35b))
RoIC = 13.45% (NOPAT 153.3m / Invested Capital 1.14b)
WACC = 1.88% (E(332.8m)/V(3.68b) * Re(8.96%) + D(3.35b)/V(3.68b) * Rd(1.49%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 8.96% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.25%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈51.0m ; Y1≈33.5m ; Y5≈15.3m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 486.7m - Net Debt 3.28b = -2.79b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 40.65 | EPS CAGR: 32.72% | SUE: 0.03 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -15.51 | Revenue CAGR: -14.51% | SUE: -0.19 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.15 | Chg30d=-0.105 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=2
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.50 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=-188.5% | Growth Revenue=-19.3%