(MCD) McDonald’s - Overview
Stock: Burgers, Chicken, Fries, Beverages, Breakfast
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.32% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.80% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 8.10% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.9% |
| Payout Ratio | 79.0% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 16.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.30% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.57 |
| Alpha | 9.83 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.171 |
| Beta Downside | 0.197 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 17.21% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.60 |
Description: MCD McDonald’s January 26, 2026
McDonald’s Corporation (NYSE:MCD) operates and franchises a global network of quick-service restaurants, serving a standardized menu that includes burgers, chicken sandwiches, breakfast items, beverages, and seasonal promotions. The brand is managed through a mix of company-owned outlets and franchised locations under conventional franchise, developmental license, or affiliate structures, with its corporate headquarters in Chicago, Illinois, and origins dating back to 1940.
Key recent metrics illustrate the chain’s resilience and growth drivers: • FY 2023 global comparable sales rose 9.3% year-over-year, propelled by a 12.5% increase in U.S. comparable sales and a 7.8% rise internationally. • Franchise revenue now represents roughly 55% of total systemwide sales, reflecting the company’s strategic shift toward a higher-margin franchise model. • Operating margin improved to 41.2% in Q4 2024, supported by menu price adjustments that outpaced U.S. inflation (CPI up 3.2% YoY) while maintaining comparable traffic volumes. • Labor cost pressure remains a sector-wide concern, with average hourly wages for crew members rising 4.5% in the U.S. over the past 12 months, prompting continued investment in automation and drive-thru efficiency.
For a deeper, data-driven dive into McDonald’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools useful.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 8.41b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.12 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 0.0% < 20% (prev -5.38%; Δ 5.38% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 10.48b > Net Income 8.41b |
| Net Debt (53.41b) to EBITDA (14.41b): 3.71 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.0 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (715.9m) vs 12m ago -0.57% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 57.42% > 18% (prev 0.57%; Δ 5686 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 44.98% > 50% (prev 46.18%; Δ -1.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 7.88 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 14.41b / Interest Expense TTM 1.55b) |
Altman Z'' 6.26
| A: 0.0 (Total Current Assets 6.08b - Total Current Liabilities 6.08b) / Total Assets 60.61b |
| B: 1.15 (Retained Earnings 69.44b / Total Assets 60.61b) |
| C: 0.21 (EBIT TTM 12.23b / Avg Total Assets 58.39b) |
| D: 1.07 (Book Value of Equity 67.04b / Total Liabilities 62.77b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 6.26 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.04
| DSRI: 1.04 (Receivables 2.58b/2.46b, Revenue 26.26b/25.94b) |
| GMI: 0.99 (GM 57.42% / 56.62%) |
| AQI: 1.00 (AQ_t 0.21 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.01 (Revenue 26.26b / 25.94b) |
| TATA: -0.03 (NI 8.41b - CFO 10.48b) / TA 60.61b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.04 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of MCD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +3.86%, over one month by +8.06%, over three months by +10.29% and over the past year by +13.73%.
Is MCD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 15
- Buy: 6
- Hold: 15
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MCD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 334.8 | 2.3% |
| Analysts Target Price | 334.8 | 2.3% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 362.6 | 10.8% |
MCD Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 24.3902
P/S = 8.8891
P/EG = 2.87
Revenue TTM = 26.26b USD
EBIT TTM = 12.23b USD
EBITDA TTM = 14.41b USD
Long Term Debt = 39.48b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 2.50b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 55.82b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 53.41b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 286.87b USD (233.46b + Debt 55.82b - CCE 2.41b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.88 (Ebit TTM 12.23b / Interest Expense TTM 1.55b)
EV/FCF = 38.91x (Enterprise Value 286.87b / FCF TTM 7.37b)
FCF Yield = 2.57% (FCF TTM 7.37b / Enterprise Value 286.87b)
FCF Margin = 28.07% (FCF TTM 7.37b / Revenue TTM 26.26b)
Net Margin = 32.04% (Net Income TTM 8.41b / Revenue TTM 26.26b)
Gross Margin = 57.42% ((Revenue TTM 26.26b - Cost of Revenue TTM 11.18b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 58.00% (prev 57.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 4.73 (Enterprise Value 286.87b / Total Assets 60.61b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.73% (Interest Expense 406.0m / Debt 55.82b)
Taxrate = 22.75% (671.0m / 2.95b)
NOPAT = 9.45b (EBIT 12.23b * (1 - 22.75%))
Current Ratio = 1.0 (Total Current Assets 6.08b / Total Current Liabilities 6.08b)
Debt / Equity = -25.81 (negative equity) (Debt 55.82b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter -2.16b)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.71 (Net Debt 53.41b / EBITDA 14.41b)
Debt / FCF = 7.24 (Net Debt 53.41b / FCF TTM 7.37b)
Total Stockholder Equity = -3.04b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 14.41% (Net Income 8.41b / Total Assets 60.61b)
RoE = -276.5% (negative equity) (Net Income TTM 8.41b / Total Stockholder Equity -3.04b)
RoCE = 33.56% (EBIT 12.23b / Capital Employed (Equity -3.04b + L.T.Debt 39.48b))
RoIC = 25.56% (NOPAT 9.45b / Invested Capital 36.97b)
WACC = 5.39% (E(233.46b)/V(289.28b) * Re(6.55%) + D(55.82b)/V(289.28b) * Rd(0.73%) * (1-Tc(0.23)))
Discount Rate = 6.55% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.82%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.55% ; FCFF base≈7.05b ; Y1≈7.21b ; Y5≈7.97b
Fair Price DCF = 257.9 (EV 237.09b - Net Debt 53.41b = Equity 183.69b / Shares 712.2m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 2.04% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 73.79 | EPS CAGR: 10.29% | SUE: -1.17 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 74.60 | Revenue CAGR: 4.46% | SUE: -0.05 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.86 | Chg30d=+0.012 | Revisions Net=+12 | Analysts=27
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.27 | Chg30d=+0.038 | Revisions Net=+11 | Growth EPS=+9.3% | Growth Revenue=+5.9%