(MFA) MFA Financial - Overview
Stock: Mortgage-Backed Securities, Residential Loans, Mortgage Servicing Rights
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 15.11% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 17.16% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 39.07% |
| Payout Consistency | 86.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 2.1% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 28.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.30% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.18 |
| Alpha | -6.58 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.793 |
| Beta Downside | 0.869 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 31.62% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.31 |
Description: MFA MFA Financial January 20, 2026
MFA Financial, Inc. (NYSE:MFA) is a U.S.-based real estate investment trust that invests in a diversified portfolio of residential mortgage assets, including agency and non-agency mortgage-backed securities, whole-loan purchases (performing, credit-deteriorated, and non-performing), and mortgage-servicing-right (MSR) related assets. By qualifying as a REIT, the company avoids federal corporate income tax provided it distributes at least 90 % of its taxable income to shareholders.
Key performance metrics from the most recent filing show a dividend yield near 7.5 % and a weighted-average coupon on its MBS holdings of roughly 5.2 %, indicating a focus on higher-yielding, non-agency securities. The portfolio’s net asset value (NAV) per share has trended lower in 2023, reflecting rising interest-rate pressure and a widening credit spread in the mortgage market.
Sector-wide drivers that materially affect MFA include Federal Reserve policy (which influences mortgage rates and prepayment speeds), the health of the U.S. housing market (affecting loan performance and MSR valuations), and credit-risk sentiment toward non-agency securities. A 100-basis-point rise in the 10-year Treasury rate typically compresses the spread on MFA’s assets, pressuring earnings.
For a deeper, data-rich perspective on MFA’s valuation assumptions and scenario analysis, you might explore the company’s profile on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 128.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.41 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -2.24% < 20% (prev 2818 %; Δ -2820 % < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.01 > 3% & CFO 150.1m > Net Income 128.2m |
| Net Debt (6.29b) to EBITDA (212.2m): 29.66 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (105.3m) vs 12m ago -1.02% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 58.69% > 18% (prev 0.90%; Δ 5779 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 3.20% > 50% (prev 2.99%; Δ 0.20% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 0.43 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 212.2m / Interest Expense TTM 382.2m) |
Altman Z'' -0.62
| A: -0.00 (Total Current Assets 305.2m - Total Current Liabilities 313.5m) / Total Assets 12.10b |
| B: -0.16 (Retained Earnings -1.90b / Total Assets 12.10b) |
| C: 0.01 (EBIT TTM 163.4m / Avg Total Assets 11.63b) |
| D: -0.18 (Book Value of Equity -1.90b / Total Liabilities 10.28b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.62 = B |
Beneish M 0.54
| DSRI: 0.01 (Receivables 114.5m/9.04b, Revenue 371.8m/334.2m) |
| GMI: 1.53 (GM 58.69% / 89.79%) |
| AQI: 7.45 (AQ_t 0.97 / AQ_t-1 0.13) |
| SGI: 1.11 (Revenue 371.8m / 334.2m) |
| TATA: -0.00 (NI 128.2m - CFO 150.1m) / TA 12.10b) |
| Beneish M-Score: 0.54 (Cap -4..+1) = D |
What is the price of MFA shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.04%, over one month by +3.18%, over three months by +12.80% and over the past year by +5.39%.
Is MFA a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 1
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MFA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.6 | 49.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.6 | 49.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 11.8 | 20.8% |
MFA Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/E Forward = 7.3475
P/S = 3.5473
P/B = 0.569
P/EG = 2.25
Revenue TTM = 371.8m USD
EBIT TTM = 163.4m USD
EBITDA TTM = 212.2m USD
Long Term Debt = 6.55b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 5.29m USD (from shortTermDebt, last fiscal year)
Debt = 6.60b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 6.29b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.28b USD (989.7m + Debt 6.60b - CCE 305.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 0.43 (Ebit TTM 163.4m / Interest Expense TTM 382.2m)
EV/FCF = 48.54x (Enterprise Value 7.28b / FCF TTM 150.1m)
FCF Yield = 2.06% (FCF TTM 150.1m / Enterprise Value 7.28b)
FCF Margin = 40.36% (FCF TTM 150.1m / Revenue TTM 371.8m)
Net Margin = 34.47% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Revenue TTM 371.8m)
Gross Margin = 58.69% ((Revenue TTM 371.8m - Cost of Revenue TTM 153.6m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 87.98% (prev 94.49%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 0.60 (Enterprise Value 7.28b / Total Assets 12.10b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.07% (Interest Expense 4.60m / Debt 6.60b)
Taxrate = 0.37% (443.0k / 119.7m)
NOPAT = 162.8m (EBIT 163.4m * (1 - 0.37%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 305.2m / Total Current Liabilities 313.5m)
Debt / Equity = 3.62 (Debt 6.60b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.82b)
Debt / EBITDA = 29.66 (Net Debt 6.29b / EBITDA 212.2m)
Debt / FCF = 41.94 (Net Debt 6.29b / FCF TTM 150.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.83b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 1.10% (Net Income 128.2m / Total Assets 12.10b)
RoE = 7.00% (Net Income TTM 128.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.83b)
RoCE = 1.95% (EBIT 163.4m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.83b + L.T.Debt 6.55b))
RoIC = 2.04% (NOPAT 162.8m / Invested Capital 8.00b)
WACC = 1.21% (E(989.7m)/V(7.59b) * Re(8.84%) + D(6.60b)/V(7.59b) * Rd(0.07%) * (1-Tc(0.00)))
Discount Rate = 8.84% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -33.33 | Cagr: -1.12%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 84.85% ; FCFF base≈127.0m ; Y1≈110.8m ; Y5≈89.1m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 2.71b - Net Debt 6.29b = -3.59b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 54.44 | EPS CAGR: 50.34% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 57.65 | Revenue CAGR: 4.30% | SUE: 0.56 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.30 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-3 | Analysts=5
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=1.34 | Chg30d=+0.000 | Revisions Net=-2 | Growth EPS=+32.4% | Growth Revenue=+8.1%