MMS Stock Analysis: Maximus | NYSE
Specialty Business Services | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 3.110m USD | 12M Return: -30.5% | US5779331041 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 43.1M
EPS Trend: 94.6%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 71.6%
Qual. Beats: -1
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Maximus, Inc. (NYSE: MMS) is a global provider of government services, primarily supporting health and human services programs. Founded in 1975 and headquartered in McLean, Virginia, the company operates through three segments: U.S. Federal Services, U.S. Services, and Outside the U.S., offering a combination of business process services (BPS), clinical and eligibility assessments, customer contact center operations, and technology solutions including application development, cybersecurity, and data management.
The bulk of Maximuss revenue comes from long-term contracts with U.S. federal, state, and international government agencies, making it highly dependent on government budget cycles and policy priorities. As a mid-cap stock in the GICS Data Processing & Outsourced Services sub-industry, Maximus competes with other government IT services and business process outsourcing (BPO) firms that serve public-sector clients, where contract vehicles, past performance credentials, and regulatory expertise serve as key competitive advantages.
- Federal contract awards drive U.S. Federal Services segment revenue growth
- Medicaid redeterminations resume boosting U.S. Services enrollment volumes
- UK employment services contract performance weighs on international margins
| Net Income: 370.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.10 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 13.14 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 18.35% < 20% (prev 16.56%; Δ 1.80% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 469.5m > Net Income 370.9m |
| Net Debt (1.77b) to EBITDA (715.7m): 2.47 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.42 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (53.1m) vs 12m ago -6.89% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 24.38% > 18% (prev 22.28%; Δ 2.10% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 118.9% > 50% (prev 121.7%; Δ -2.77% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.51 > 6 (EBIT TTM 580.7m / Interest Expense TTM 89.2m) |
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 1.64b - Total Current Liabilities 678.1m) / Total Assets 4.37b |
| B: 0.26 (Retained Earnings 1.11b / Total Assets 4.37b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 580.7m / Avg Total Assets 4.41b) |
| D: 0.66 (Book Value of Equity 1.74b / Total Liabilities 2.63b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 3.86 = AA |
| DSRI: 1.02 (Receivables 1.41b/1.43b, Revenue 5.25b/5.43b) |
| GMI: 0.91 (GM 22.28% / 24.38%) |
| AQI: 0.97 (AQ_t 0.59 / AQ_t-1 0.61) |
| SGI: 0.97 (Revenue 5.25b / 5.43b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 370.9m - CFO 469.5m) / TA 4.37b) |
| Beneish M = -3.13 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of October 14, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 58.08 with a total of 714,377 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +6.22%, over one month by -2.14%, over three months by +0.11% and over the past year by -30.49%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 54.90 (which is 5.5% or 1.8 ATR below the current price).
Maximus has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.00. Therefore, it is recommended to buy MMS.
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 0
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 92.5 | 59.3% |
P/E Trailing = 8.7855
P/E Forward = 19.084
P/S = 0.5925
P/B = 1.6599
P/EG = 2.0554
Revenue TTM = 5.25b USD
EBIT TTM = 580.7m USD
EBITDA TTM = 715.7m USD
Long Term Debt = 1.57b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 109.9m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 1.83b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 94.9m
Net Debt = 1.77b USD (calculated: Debt 1.83b - CCE 57.0m)
Enterprise Value = 4.88b USD (3.11b + Debt 1.83b - CCE 57.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.51 (Ebit TTM 580.7m / Interest Expense TTM 89.2m)
EV/FCF = 11.26x (Enterprise Value 4.88b / FCF TTM 433.2m)
FCF Yield = 8.88% (FCF TTM 433.2m / Enterprise Value 4.88b)
FCF Margin = 8.25% (FCF TTM 433.2m / Revenue TTM 5.25b)
Net Margin = 7.07% (Net Income TTM 370.9m / Revenue TTM 5.25b)
Gross Margin = 24.38% ((Revenue TTM 5.25b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.97b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 27.27% (prev 24.65%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.12 (Enterprise Value 4.88b / Total Assets 4.37b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.89% (Interest Expense 89.2m / Debt 1.83b)
Taxrate = 24.53% (120.5m / 491.4m)
NOPAT = 438.2m (EBIT 580.7m * (1 - 24.53%))
Current Ratio = 2.42 (Total Current Assets 1.64b / Total Current Liabilities 678.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.05 (Debt 1.83b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.74b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.47 (Net Debt 1.77b / EBITDA 715.7m)
Debt / FCF = 4.09 (Net Debt 1.77b / FCF TTM 433.2m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.71b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.40% (Net Income 370.9m / Total Assets 4.37b)
RoE = 21.72% (Net Income TTM 370.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.71b)
RoCE = 17.74% (EBIT 580.7m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.71b + L.T.Debt 1.57b))
RoIC = 11.71% (NOPAT 438.2m / Invested Capital 3.74b)
WACC = 6.05% (E(3.11b)/V(4.94b) * Re(7.44%) + D(1.83b)/V(4.94b) * Rd(4.89%) * (1-Tc(0.25)))
Discount Rate = 7.44% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -97.10 | Cagr: -6.43%
[DCF] Terminal Value 75.44% ; FCFF base≈433.2m ; Y1≈435.0m ; Y5≈460.8m
[DCF] Fair Price = 103.1 (EV 7.17b - Net Debt 1.77b = Equity 5.40b / Shares 52.4m; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow 0.0% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 94.62 | EPS CAGR: 25.62% | SUE: 0.07 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 71.61 | Revenue CAGR: 2.70% | SUE: -0.99 | # QB: -1
EPS current Quarter (2026-12-31): EPS=1.92 | Chg30d=-16.88% | Revisions=+25% | Analysts=1
EPS current Year (2026-09-30): EPS=8.01 | Chg30d=-5.43% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+8.8% | GrowthRev=-3.8%
EPS next Year (2027-09-30): EPS=8.36 | Chg30d=-7.83% | Revisions=-40% | GrowthEPS=+4.4% | GrowthRev=+2.9%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -29% (up=1, down=3)