(MPC) Marathon Petroleum - Overview
Stock: Gasoline, Diesel, Asphalt, Propane, Petrochemicals
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.22% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 10.90% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 12.60% |
| Payout Consistency | 99.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 35.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 38.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -3.92% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.96 |
| Alpha | 16.30 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.997 |
| Beta Downside | 1.425 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.75% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.44 |
Description: MPC Marathon Petroleum January 27, 2026
Marathon Petroleum Corp (NYSE:MPC) is an integrated downstream energy firm operating in the United States through three business segments: Refining & Marketing, Midstream, and Renewable Diesel. The Refining & Marketing segment runs a network of Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent and West Coast refineries that process crude and other feedstocks into gasoline, diesel, heavy fuel oil, asphalt, propane and petrochemicals, which are sold to wholesale customers, spot-market buyers and ARCO-branded dealers. The Midstream segment owns pipelines, terminals, towboats and barges that move crude, refined products, natural gas and NGLs, while the Renewable Diesel segment converts renewable feedstocks into low-carbon diesel and distributes it via the Midstream assets and third-party channels.
According to MPC’s Q4 2025 earnings release, the company posted an adjusted refining margin of **$16.2 billion** for the full year, up 12 % YoY, driven by higher crack spreads and improved utilization (average 92 %). Renewable diesel production reached **1.2 million bbl/d**, reflecting a 30 % capacity expansion completed in 2024, and now accounts for roughly 8 % of total diesel volumes sold. Midstream pipeline throughput averaged **2.4 MMbbl/d**, with a utilization rate of 78 %, indicating solid demand for both crude and product transport. Key macro drivers include U.S. gasoline demand rebounding to pre-pandemic levels (≈9 million bbl/d), tightening diesel emissions standards that boost renewable diesel premiums, and volatile crude price spreads that influence refining margins. These figures are subject to change if fuel demand weakens, regulatory policies tighten, or crude price volatility intensifies.
For a deeper quantitative view, you might explore the MPC valuation model on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 4.5
| Net Income: 4.05b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.05 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -1.62 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 4.44% < 20% (prev 2.61%; Δ 1.83% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.09 > 3% & CFO 7.39b > Net Income 4.05b |
| Net Debt (34.20b) to EBITDA (11.63b): 2.94 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (299.0m) vs 12m ago -6.85% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.73% > 18% (prev 0.07%; Δ 766.0% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 164.1% > 50% (prev 176.1%; Δ -12.03% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.10 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 11.63b / Interest Expense TTM 1.37b) |
Altman Z'' 2.67
| A: 0.07 (Total Current Assets 24.63b - Total Current Liabilities 18.73b) / Total Assets 83.24b |
| B: 0.46 (Retained Earnings 38.52b / Total Assets 83.24b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 8.38b / Avg Total Assets 81.05b) |
| D: 0.0 (Book Value of Equity 0.0 / Total Liabilities 59.35b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.67 = A |
What is the price of MPC shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +15.22%, over one month by +19.12%, over three months by +5.86% and over the past year by +36.58%.
Is MPC a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 7
- Buy: 5
- Hold: 8
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MPC price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 196.6 | -3.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 196.6 | -3.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 249.7 | 23% |
MPC Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 12.1655
P/S = 0.4412
P/B = 2.42
P/EG = 1.0955
Revenue TTM = 132.97b USD
EBIT TTM = 8.38b USD
EBITDA TTM = 11.63b USD
Long Term Debt = 31.23b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 2.05b USD (from shortTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Debt = 34.20b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, two quarters ago)
Net Debt = 34.20b USD (using Total Debt 34.20b, CCE unavailable)
Enterprise Value = 93.07b USD (58.87b + Debt 34.20b - (null CCE))
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.10 (Ebit TTM 8.38b / Interest Expense TTM 1.37b)
EV/FCF = 21.77x (Enterprise Value 93.07b / FCF TTM 4.28b)
FCF Yield = 4.59% (FCF TTM 4.28b / Enterprise Value 93.07b)
FCF Margin = 3.22% (FCF TTM 4.28b / Revenue TTM 132.97b)
Net Margin = 3.04% (Net Income TTM 4.05b / Revenue TTM 132.97b)
Gross Margin = 7.73% ((Revenue TTM 132.97b - Cost of Revenue TTM 122.70b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 9.61% (prev 7.95%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.12 (Enterprise Value 93.07b / Total Assets 83.24b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.00% (Interest Expense 343.0m / Debt 34.20b)
Taxrate = 15.82% (372.0m / 2.35b)
NOPAT = 7.05b (EBIT 8.38b * (1 - 15.82%))
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 24.63b / Total Current Liabilities 18.73b)
Debt / Equity = 2.00 (Debt 34.20b / totalStockholderEquity, two quarters ago 17.10b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.94 (Net Debt 34.20b / EBITDA 11.63b)
Debt / FCF = 8.00 (Net Debt 34.20b / FCF TTM 4.28b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 16.97b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.99% (Net Income 4.05b / Total Assets 83.24b)
RoE = 23.85% (Net Income TTM 4.05b / Total Stockholder Equity 16.97b)
RoCE = 17.38% (EBIT 8.38b / Capital Employed (Equity 16.97b + L.T.Debt 31.23b))
RoIC = 14.84% (NOPAT 7.05b / Invested Capital 47.51b)
WACC = 6.38% (E(58.87b)/V(93.07b) * Re(9.59%) + D(34.20b)/V(93.07b) * Rd(1.00%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 9.59% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -10.94%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.38% ; FCFF base≈4.70b ; Y1≈3.72b ; Y5≈2.48b
Fair Price DCF = 108.3 (EV 66.16b - Net Debt 34.20b = Equity 31.95b / Shares 295.0m; r=6.38% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -24.76% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -44.84 | EPS CAGR: 31.68% | SUE: 2.23 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -71.73 | Revenue CAGR: -3.85% | SUE: 0.24 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=0.73 | Chg30d=-1.897 | Revisions Net=-7 | Analysts=13
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=13.30 | Chg30d=-0.788 | Revisions Net=-10 | Growth EPS=+24.3% | Growth Revenue=-10.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=13.27 | Chg30d=-1.029 | Revisions Net=-3 | Growth EPS=-0.2% | Growth Revenue=+4.0%