(MTN) Vail Resorts - Overview
Stock: Ski Resorts, Hotels, Real Estate, Ski School, Dining
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 5.94% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 3.72% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 49.87% |
| Payout Consistency | 94.7% |
| Payout Ratio | 130.2% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 30.8% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -4.29% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.35 |
| Alpha | -25.04 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.796 |
| Beta Downside | 0.841 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 44.37% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.32 |
Description: MTN Vail Resorts January 10, 2026
Vail Resorts, Inc. (NYSE: MTN) operates a portfolio of mountain resorts, lodging properties, and real-estate projects across the United States and select international locations. The business is organized into three reporting segments: Mountain (ski areas, ski schools, dining, retail, and real-estate brokerage), Lodging (luxury hotels and condominiums under the RockResorts brand plus ground-transport services), and Real Estate (development, ownership, and sales of property assets).
Key operating metrics from the most recent fiscal year (2023) show total revenue of roughly **$2.5 billion**, with the Mountain segment contributing about **65 %** of that total. The Epic Pass, Vail’s multi-resort ski-pass product, generated **$1.2 billion** in pass-related revenue-a 12 % year-over-year increase, reflecting strong demand for bundled experiential travel.
Economic drivers that materially affect Vail’s performance include: (1) **Winter weather patterns**-snowfall depth and temperature anomalies directly impact lift ticket sales; (2) **Disposable income trends**-the company’s core customers are high-income households, so consumer-confidence and real-estate price appreciation influence both ski-pass renewals and lodging occupancy; and (3) **Travel-cost dynamics**-fuel prices and airline capacity affect the willingness of out-of-state visitors to travel to mountain destinations.
Sector-wide, the leisure-facility industry is increasingly sensitive to **climate-change risk** (shorter ski seasons) and **shifts toward experiential consumption**, prompting operators to diversify revenue through year-round activities (e.g., mountain biking, festivals) and expand premium lodging offerings.
For a deeper quantitative breakdown, see ValueRay’s MTN dashboard.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.0
| Net Income: 266.1m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.06 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 0.59 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -29.89% < 20% (prev -17.67%; Δ -12.23% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.10 > 3% & CFO 588.4m > Net Income 266.1m |
| Net Debt (2.84b) to EBITDA (863.9m): 3.29 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.54 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (35.9m) vs 12m ago -4.17% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 42.78% > 18% (prev 0.38%; Δ 4240 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 52.17% > 50% (prev 51.16%; Δ 1.00% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.13 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 863.9m / Interest Expense TTM 180.8m) |
Altman Z'' -0.01
| A: -0.15 (Total Current Assets 1.05b - Total Current Liabilities 1.94b) / Total Assets 5.76b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 452.1m / Total Assets 5.76b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 565.9m / Avg Total Assets 5.70b) |
| D: 0.07 (Book Value of Equity 390.8m / Total Liabilities 5.30b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -0.01 = B |
Beneish M -2.93
| DSRI: 1.31 (Receivables 175.8m/130.2m, Revenue 2.98b/2.89b) |
| GMI: 0.88 (GM 42.78% / 37.70%) |
| AQI: 0.98 (AQ_t 0.36 / AQ_t-1 0.37) |
| SGI: 1.03 (Revenue 2.98b / 2.89b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 266.1m - CFO 588.4m) / TA 5.76b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.93 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of MTN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.19%, over one month by +1.49%, over three months by -2.31% and over the past year by -13.25%.
Is MTN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 3
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 7
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MTN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 174.6 | 26% |
| Analysts Target Price | 174.6 | 26% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 136.7 | -1.4% |
MTN Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 18.2815
P/S = 1.5771
P/B = 30.4267
P/EG = 2.0
Revenue TTM = 2.98b USD
EBIT TTM = 565.9m USD
EBITDA TTM = 863.9m USD
Long Term Debt = 2.58b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 625.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.42b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 2.84b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 7.53b USD (4.69b + Debt 3.42b - CCE 581.5m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.13 (Ebit TTM 565.9m / Interest Expense TTM 180.8m)
EV/FCF = 21.36x (Enterprise Value 7.53b / FCF TTM 352.5m)
FCF Yield = 4.68% (FCF TTM 352.5m / Enterprise Value 7.53b)
FCF Margin = 11.85% (FCF TTM 352.5m / Revenue TTM 2.98b)
Net Margin = 8.94% (Net Income TTM 266.1m / Revenue TTM 2.98b)
Gross Margin = 42.78% ((Revenue TTM 2.98b - Cost of Revenue TTM 1.70b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -11.77% (prev -6.94%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.31 (Enterprise Value 7.53b / Total Assets 5.76b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.50% (Interest Expense 51.3m / Debt 3.42b)
Taxrate = 25.95% (104.4m / 402.4m)
NOPAT = 419.0m (EBIT 565.9m * (1 - 25.95%))
Current Ratio = 0.54 (Total Current Assets 1.05b / Total Current Liabilities 1.94b)
Debt / Equity = 21.86 (Debt 3.42b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 156.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.29 (Net Debt 2.84b / EBITDA 863.9m)
Debt / FCF = 8.05 (Net Debt 2.84b / FCF TTM 352.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 501.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 4.67% (Net Income 266.1m / Total Assets 5.76b)
RoE = 53.03% (Net Income TTM 266.1m / Total Stockholder Equity 501.8m)
RoCE = 18.34% (EBIT 565.9m / Capital Employed (Equity 501.8m + L.T.Debt 2.58b))
RoIC = 12.17% (NOPAT 419.0m / Invested Capital 3.44b)
WACC = 5.59% (E(4.69b)/V(8.11b) * Re(8.85%) + D(3.42b)/V(8.11b) * Rd(1.50%) * (1-Tc(0.26)))
Discount Rate = 8.85% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -2.94%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.36% ; FCFF base≈336.3m ; Y1≈306.7m ; Y5≈270.2m
Fair Price DCF = 148.5 (EV 8.15b - Net Debt 2.84b = Equity 5.31b / Shares 35.8m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -10.97% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -15.11 | EPS CAGR: -22.52% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -17.98 | Revenue CAGR: -27.53% | SUE: -0.27 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=10.76 | Chg30d=+0.077 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=9
EPS current Year (2026-07-31): EPS=6.83 | Chg30d=-0.174 | Revisions Net=-4 | Growth EPS=-9.3% | Growth Revenue=+0.6%
EPS next Year (2027-07-31): EPS=7.92 | Chg30d=+0.037 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+16.0% | Growth Revenue=+4.1%