(MUSA) Murphy USA - Overview
Exchange: NYSE •
Country: United States •
Currency: USD •
Type: Common Stock •
ISIN: US6267551025
Stock: Gasoline, Diesel, Convenience Store Goods
Total Rating 33
Risk 72
Buy Signal -1.25
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 0.54% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 1.71% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 19.91% |
| Payout Consistency | 100.0% |
| Payout Ratio | 8.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 33.1% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.08% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -0.71 |
| Alpha | -32.69 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.193 |
| Beta Downside | 0.065 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 35.54% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.33 |
Description: MUSA Murphy USA January 07, 2026
Murphy USA Inc. (NYSE:MUSA) operates a network of retail gasoline stations and convenience stores under the Murphy USA, Murphy Express, and QuickChek brands, focusing primarily on the Southeast, Southwest, and Midwest United States. Founded in 1996 and headquartered in El Dorado, Arkansas, the firm’s business model centers on fuel sales complemented by high-margin convenience merchandise.
Key recent metrics (FY 2023) include revenue of roughly $9.6 billion, a 3.2 % year-over-year increase in same-store sales, and an operating margin of about 4.5 %-both driven by modest gasoline price recoveries and expanding non-fuel sales. The company’s performance is highly sensitive to regional fuel price volatility, the pace of EV adoption (which could erode fuel demand), and broader consumer discretionary spending trends that affect convenience-store traffic.
For a deeper, data-driven assessment of Murphy USA’s valuation and risk profile, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.5
| Net Income: 470.6m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.08 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.66 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.94% < 20% (prev -0.99%; Δ 0.05% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.17 > 3% & CFO 813.9m > Net Income 470.6m |
| Net Debt (3.22b) to EBITDA (1.00b): 3.22 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.80 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (18.8m) vs 12m ago -7.92% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 5.01% > 18% (prev 0.11%; Δ 489.4% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 418.3% > 50% (prev 445.8%; Δ -27.43% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 6.49 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 1.00b / Interest Expense TTM 110.9m) |
Altman Z'' 4.74
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 747.8m - Total Current Liabilities 929.1m) / Total Assets 4.73b |
| B: 0.88 (Retained Earnings 4.17b / Total Assets 4.73b) |
| C: 0.16 (EBIT TTM 720.1m / Avg Total Assets 4.63b) |
| D: 1.02 (Book Value of Equity 4.17b / Total Liabilities 4.10b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 4.74 = AA |
Beneish M -1.94
| DSRI: 1.07 (Receivables 276.2m/268.5m, Revenue 19.38b/20.24b) |
| GMI: 2.28 (GM 5.01% / 11.39%) |
| AQI: 0.96 (AQ_t 0.10 / AQ_t-1 0.11) |
| SGI: 0.96 (Revenue 19.38b / 20.24b) |
| TATA: -0.07 (NI 470.6m - CFO 813.9m) / TA 4.73b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -1.94 (Cap -4..+1) = B |
What is the price of MUSA shares?
As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 377.89 with a total of 720,028 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.56%, over one month by -11.30%, over three months by +6.10% and over the past year by -23.94%.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -10.56%, over one month by -11.30%, over three months by +6.10% and over the past year by -23.94%.
Is MUSA a buy, sell or hold?
Murphy USA has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.89.
Therefore, it is recommended to buy MUSA.
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the MUSA price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 441.3 | 16.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 441.3 | 16.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 401.3 | 6.2% |
MUSA Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Trailing = 16.5042
P/E Forward = 16.5289
P/S = 0.4378
P/B = 15.2638
P/EG = 1.5097
Revenue TTM = 19.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 720.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.00b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.22b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 19.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.67b USD (7.45b + Debt 3.25b - CCE 28.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.49 (Ebit TTM 720.1m / Interest Expense TTM 110.9m)
EV/FCF = 28.50x (Enterprise Value 10.67b / FCF TTM 374.3m)
FCF Yield = 3.51% (FCF TTM 374.3m / Enterprise Value 10.67b)
FCF Margin = 1.93% (FCF TTM 374.3m / Revenue TTM 19.38b)
Net Margin = 2.43% (Net Income TTM 470.6m / Revenue TTM 19.38b)
Gross Margin = 5.01% ((Revenue TTM 19.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -2.60% (prev 6.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.26 (Enterprise Value 10.67b / Total Assets 4.73b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.88% (Interest Expense 28.6m / Debt 3.25b)
Taxrate = 21.78% (39.5m / 181.4m)
NOPAT = 563.3m (EBIT 720.1m * (1 - 21.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 747.8m / Total Current Liabilities 929.1m)
Debt / Equity = 5.22 (Debt 3.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 623.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.22 (Net Debt 3.22b / EBITDA 1.00b)
Debt / FCF = 8.61 (Net Debt 3.22b / FCF TTM 374.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 633.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.16% (Net Income 470.6m / Total Assets 4.73b)
RoE = 74.25% (Net Income TTM 470.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 633.8m)
RoCE = 25.21% (EBIT 720.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 633.8m + L.T.Debt 2.22b))
RoIC = 20.55% (NOPAT 563.3m / Invested Capital 2.74b)
WACC = 4.82% (E(7.45b)/V(10.70b) * Re(6.62%) + D(3.25b)/V(10.70b) * Rd(0.88%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.23%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.08% ; FCFF base≈380.4m ; Y1≈338.3m ; Y5≈283.3m
Fair Price DCF = 288.4 (EV 8.58b - Net Debt 3.22b = Equity 5.35b / Shares 18.6m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -13.62% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -9.92 | EPS CAGR: 7.15% | SUE: 1.59 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -65.35 | Revenue CAGR: -2.01% | SUE: -0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.41 | Chg30d=+0.028 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=25.30 | Chg30d=+0.019 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+1.2% | Growth Revenue=+2.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=28.12 | Chg30d=-0.076 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+11.2% | Growth Revenue=+3.0%
P/E Forward = 16.5289
P/S = 0.4378
P/B = 15.2638
P/EG = 1.5097
Revenue TTM = 19.38b USD
EBIT TTM = 720.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 1.00b USD
Long Term Debt = 2.22b USD (from longTermDebt, two quarters ago)
Short Term Debt = 19.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 3.25b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 3.22b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 10.67b USD (7.45b + Debt 3.25b - CCE 28.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 6.49 (Ebit TTM 720.1m / Interest Expense TTM 110.9m)
EV/FCF = 28.50x (Enterprise Value 10.67b / FCF TTM 374.3m)
FCF Yield = 3.51% (FCF TTM 374.3m / Enterprise Value 10.67b)
FCF Margin = 1.93% (FCF TTM 374.3m / Revenue TTM 19.38b)
Net Margin = 2.43% (Net Income TTM 470.6m / Revenue TTM 19.38b)
Gross Margin = 5.01% ((Revenue TTM 19.38b - Cost of Revenue TTM 18.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = -2.60% (prev 6.66%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.26 (Enterprise Value 10.67b / Total Assets 4.73b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.88% (Interest Expense 28.6m / Debt 3.25b)
Taxrate = 21.78% (39.5m / 181.4m)
NOPAT = 563.3m (EBIT 720.1m * (1 - 21.78%))
Current Ratio = 0.80 (Total Current Assets 747.8m / Total Current Liabilities 929.1m)
Debt / Equity = 5.22 (Debt 3.25b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 623.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.22 (Net Debt 3.22b / EBITDA 1.00b)
Debt / FCF = 8.61 (Net Debt 3.22b / FCF TTM 374.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 633.8m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.16% (Net Income 470.6m / Total Assets 4.73b)
RoE = 74.25% (Net Income TTM 470.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 633.8m)
RoCE = 25.21% (EBIT 720.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 633.8m + L.T.Debt 2.22b))
RoIC = 20.55% (NOPAT 563.3m / Invested Capital 2.74b)
WACC = 4.82% (E(7.45b)/V(10.70b) * Re(6.62%) + D(3.25b)/V(10.70b) * Rd(0.88%) * (1-Tc(0.22)))
Discount Rate = 6.62% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.23%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 85.08% ; FCFF base≈380.4m ; Y1≈338.3m ; Y5≈283.3m
Fair Price DCF = 288.4 (EV 8.58b - Net Debt 3.22b = Equity 5.35b / Shares 18.6m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -13.62% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -9.92 | EPS CAGR: 7.15% | SUE: 1.59 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -65.35 | Revenue CAGR: -2.01% | SUE: -0.68 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.41 | Chg30d=+0.028 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=4
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=25.30 | Chg30d=+0.019 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+1.2% | Growth Revenue=+2.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=28.12 | Chg30d=-0.076 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+11.2% | Growth Revenue=+3.0%