(NGVC) Natural Grocers by Vitamin - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US63888U1088

Stock: Organic Groceries, Supplements, Body Care, Pet Products, Household Goods

Total Rating 34

Risk 86

Buy Signal -0.77

Grocery Stores » Food Retail
Age: 13.5y

Market Cap: 730m
Avg Trading Vol: 5.95M USD

ATR: 5.20%
Peers RS (IBD): 6.67

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -45.31%
EPS Trend: 44.7%

Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 5.78%
Rev. Trend: 97.9%

Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	1.38%
Yield on Cost 5y	3.86%
Yield CAGR 5y	13.25%
Payout Consistency	77.3%
Payout Ratio	32.2%

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	50.5%
Relative Tail Risk	-15.1%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.97
Alpha	-56.37

Character TTM
Beta	0.349
Beta Downside	0.611

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	59.87%
CAGR/Max DD	0.72

Description: NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin January 19, 2026

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC) operates a chain of retail locations across the United States that specialize in natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and a broad assortment of health-focused household and personal-care items. The company’s product mix includes private-label bulk foods (e.g., nuts, grains, teas), organic staples (produce, eggs, coffee, mustard), name-brand and private-label supplements, as well as natural body-care, pet-care, and general merchandise, complemented by in-store nutrition education programs.

Key operational metrics that investors typically watch include the roughly 160 stores in the network (as of 2023), FY 2023 revenue of about $1.2 billion, and a same-store sales growth rate of ~5% year-over-year. The organic and natural foods segment is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 8% through 2025, driven by rising consumer health awareness, while inflationary pressure on discretionary grocery spend remains a material risk.

For a deeper dive into NGVC’s valuation and financial outlook, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools helpful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income: 47.8m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.14 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 10.34 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 0.78% < 20% (prev -0.44%; Δ 1.22% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.16 > 3% & CFO 108.2m > Net Income 47.8m
Net Debt (301.7m) to EBITDA (95.1m): 3.17 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.07 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.3m) vs 12m ago 0.35% < -2%
Gross Margin: 29.78% > 18% (prev 0.28%; Δ 2950 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 202.8% > 50% (prev 195.7%; Δ 7.12% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 22.18 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 95.1m / Interest Expense TTM 2.85m)

Altman Z'' 1.88

A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 166.8m - Total Current Liabilities 156.4m) / Total Assets 668.6m
B: 0.24 (Retained Earnings 157.2m / Total Assets 668.6m)
C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 63.3m / Avg Total Assets 658.7m)
D: 0.35 (Book Value of Equity 157.2m / Total Liabilities 448.5m)
Altman-Z'' Score: 1.88 = BBB

Beneish M -3.22

DSRI: 0.80 (Receivables 9.95m/11.9m, Revenue 1.34b/1.27b)
GMI: 0.95 (GM 29.78% / 28.32%)
AQI: 1.13 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.05 (Revenue 1.34b / 1.27b)
TATA: -0.09 (NI 47.8m - CFO 108.2m) / TA 668.6m)
Beneish M-Score: -3.22 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of NGVC shares?

As of February 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 25.65 with a total of 225,522 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.52%, over one month by +2.44%, over three months by -18.77% and over the past year by -44.39%.

Is NGVC a buy, sell or hold?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin has no consensus analysts rating.

What are the forecasts/targets for the NGVC price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	54	110.5%
Analysts Target Price	54	110.5%
ValueRay Target Price	31.1	21.2%

NGVC Fundamental Data Overview February 08, 2026

P/E Trailing = 16.9255
P/S = 0.4574
P/B = 2.9313
P/EG = 6.47
Revenue TTM = 1.34b USD
EBIT TTM = 63.3m USD
EBITDA TTM = 95.1m USD
Long Term Debt = 324.9m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 81.4m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 324.9m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 301.7m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.03b USD (730.4m + Debt 324.9m - CCE 23.2m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 22.18 (Ebit TTM 63.3m / Interest Expense TTM 2.85m)
EV/FCF = 11.08x (Enterprise Value 1.03b / FCF TTM 93.1m)
FCF Yield = 9.02% (FCF TTM 93.1m / Enterprise Value 1.03b)
FCF Margin = 6.97% (FCF TTM 93.1m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Net Margin = 3.58% (Net Income TTM 47.8m / Revenue TTM 1.34b)
Gross Margin = 29.78% ((Revenue TTM 1.34b - Cost of Revenue TTM 938.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.46% (prev 29.46%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.54 (Enterprise Value 1.03b / Total Assets 668.6m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.22% (Interest Expense 713.0k / Debt 324.9m)
Taxrate = 18.66% (2.60m / 13.9m)
NOPAT = 51.5m (EBIT 63.3m * (1 - 18.66%))
Current Ratio = 1.07 (Total Current Assets 166.8m / Total Current Liabilities 156.4m)
Debt / Equity = 1.48 (Debt 324.9m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 220.0m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.17 (Net Debt 301.7m / EBITDA 95.1m)
Debt / FCF = 3.24 (Net Debt 301.7m / FCF TTM 93.1m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 207.0m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.26% (Net Income 47.8m / Total Assets 668.6m)
RoE = 23.11% (Net Income TTM 47.8m / Total Stockholder Equity 207.0m)
RoCE = 11.90% (EBIT 63.3m / Capital Employed (Equity 207.0m + L.T.Debt 324.9m))
RoIC = 24.87% (NOPAT 51.5m / Invested Capital 207.0m)
WACC = 5.04% (E(730.4m)/V(1.06b) * Re(7.20%) + D(324.9m)/V(1.06b) * Rd(0.22%) * (1-Tc(0.19)))
Discount Rate = 7.20% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.59%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈65.2m ; Y1≈80.4m ; Y5≈137.0m
Fair Price DCF = 160.6 (EV 3.99b - Net Debt 301.7m = Equity 3.69b / Shares 23.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 44.65 | EPS CAGR: -45.31% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 97.86 | Revenue CAGR: 5.78% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+7.5%

Additional Sources for NGVC Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle