(NGVC) Natural Grocers by Vitamin - Overview

Exchange: NYSE • Country: United States • Currency: USD • Type: Common Stock • ISIN: US63888U1088

Stock: Organic Groceries, Supplements, Body Care, Pet Products, Household Goods

Total Rating 34

Risk 86

Buy Signal -1.78

Grocery Stores » Food Retail
Age: 13.5y

Market Cap: 730m
Avg Trading Vol: 5.95M USD

ATR: 4.06%
Peers RS (IBD): 6.67

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: -45.31%
EPS Trend: 44.7%

Last SUE: 0.00
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 5.27%
Rev. Trend: 96.7%

Last SUE: -0.01
Qual. Beats: 0

Dividends

Dividend Yield	1.38%
Yield on Cost 5y	3.70%
Yield CAGR 5y	13.25%
Payout Consistency	77.3%
Payout Ratio	32.2%

Risk 5d forecast
Volatility	49.4%
Relative Tail Risk	-15.5%

Reward TTM
Sharpe Ratio	-0.94
Alpha	-52.74

Character TTM
Beta	0.355
Beta Downside	0.611

Drawdowns 3y
Max DD	59.87%
CAGR/Max DD	0.72

Description: NGVC Natural Grocers by Vitamin January 19, 2026

Natural Grocers by Vitamin Cottage, Inc. (NYSE:NGVC) operates a chain of retail locations across the United States that specialize in natural and organic groceries, dietary supplements, and a broad assortment of health-focused household and personal-care items. The company’s product mix includes private-label bulk foods (e.g., nuts, grains, teas), organic staples (produce, eggs, coffee, mustard), name-brand and private-label supplements, as well as natural body-care, pet-care, and general merchandise, complemented by in-store nutrition education programs.

Key operational metrics that investors typically watch include the roughly 160 stores in the network (as of 2023), FY 2023 revenue of about $1.2 billion, and a same-store sales growth rate of ~5% year-over-year. The organic and natural foods segment is expanding at a compound annual growth rate of roughly 8% through 2025, driven by rising consumer health awareness, while inflationary pressure on discretionary grocery spend remains a material risk.

For a deeper dive into NGVC’s valuation and financial outlook, you may find ValueRay’s analytical tools helpful.

Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.5

Net Income: 46.4m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 5.77 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: 0.70% < 20% (prev -1.38%; Δ 2.07% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.13 > 3% & CFO 89.7m > Net Income 46.4m
Net Debt (314.9m) to EBITDA (93.8m): 3.36 < 3
Current Ratio: 1.06 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (23.3m) vs 12m ago 0.50% < -2%
Gross Margin: 29.90% > 18% (prev 0.27%; Δ 2963 % > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 200.7% > 50% (prev 189.4%; Δ 11.32% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 20.24 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 93.8m / Interest Expense TTM 3.06m)

Altman Z'' 1.79

A: 0.01 (Total Current Assets 168.1m - Total Current Liabilities 158.8m) / Total Assets 670.5m
B: 0.22 (Retained Earnings 149.3m / Total Assets 670.5m)
C: 0.09 (EBIT TTM 62.0m / Avg Total Assets 663.0m)
D: 0.33 (Book Value of Equity 149.4m / Total Liabilities 458.1m)
Altman-Z'' Score: 1.79 = BBB

Beneish M -3.10

DSRI: 0.89 (Receivables 12.0m/12.6m, Revenue 1.33b/1.24b)
GMI: 0.90 (GM 29.90% / 26.94%)
AQI: 1.21 (AQ_t 0.03 / AQ_t-1 0.02)
SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 1.33b / 1.24b)
TATA: -0.06 (NI 46.4m - CFO 89.7m) / TA 670.5m)
Beneish M-Score: -3.10 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of NGVC shares?

As of February 07, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 26.43 with a total of 328,110 shares traded.
Over the past week, the price has changed by -3.26%, over one month by +8.50%, over three months by -15.10% and over the past year by -46.62%.

Is NGVC a buy, sell or hold?

Natural Grocers by Vitamin has no consensus analysts rating.

What are the forecasts/targets for the NGVC price?

Issuer	Target	Up/Down from current
Wallstreet Target Price	54	104.3%
Analysts Target Price	54	104.3%
ValueRay Target Price	29.9	13.2%

NGVC Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026

P/E Trailing = 16.9255
P/S = 0.4853
P/B = 2.8467
P/EG = 6.47
Revenue TTM = 1.33b USD
EBIT TTM = 62.0m USD
EBITDA TTM = 93.8m USD
Long Term Debt = 332.0m USD (from capitalLeaseObligations, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 40.6m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 332.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 314.9m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.05b USD (730.4m + Debt 332.0m - CCE 17.1m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 20.24 (Ebit TTM 62.0m / Interest Expense TTM 3.06m)
EV/FCF = 14.02x (Enterprise Value 1.05b / FCF TTM 74.6m)
FCF Yield = 7.13% (FCF TTM 74.6m / Enterprise Value 1.05b)
FCF Margin = 5.60% (FCF TTM 74.6m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Net Margin = 3.49% (Net Income TTM 46.4m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Gross Margin = 29.90% ((Revenue TTM 1.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 933.0m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 29.46% (prev 29.90%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.56 (Enterprise Value 1.05b / Total Assets 670.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.21% (Interest Expense 696.0k / Debt 332.0m)
Taxrate = 20.30% (3.01m / 14.8m)
NOPAT = 49.4m (EBIT 62.0m * (1 - 20.30%))
Current Ratio = 1.06 (Total Current Assets 168.1m / Total Current Liabilities 158.8m)
Debt / Equity = 1.56 (Debt 332.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 212.4m)
Debt / EBITDA = 3.36 (Net Debt 314.9m / EBITDA 93.8m)
Debt / FCF = 4.22 (Net Debt 314.9m / FCF TTM 74.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 197.4m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 7.01% (Net Income 46.4m / Total Assets 670.5m)
RoE = 23.52% (Net Income TTM 46.4m / Total Stockholder Equity 197.4m)
RoCE = 11.71% (EBIT 62.0m / Capital Employed (Equity 197.4m + L.T.Debt 332.0m))
RoIC = 24.74% (NOPAT 49.4m / Invested Capital 199.7m)
WACC = 5.02% (E(730.4m)/V(1.06b) * Re(7.22%) + D(332.0m)/V(1.06b) * Rd(0.21%) * (1-Tc(0.20)))
Discount Rate = 7.22% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 0.68%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 88.43% ; FCFF base≈58.8m ; Y1≈72.5m ; Y5≈123.5m
Fair Price DCF = 142.9 (EV 3.60b - Net Debt 314.9m = Equity 3.28b / Shares 23.0m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 44.65 | EPS CAGR: -45.31% | SUE: 0.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 96.68 | Revenue CAGR: 5.27% | SUE: -0.01 | # QB: 0
EPS next Year (2026-09-30): EPS=2.17 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+11.3% | Growth Revenue=+7.5%

Additional Sources for NGVC Stock

News: Wall Street Journal | Benzinga | Yahoo Finance
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle