(NI) NiSource - Ratings and Ratios
Natural Gas, Electricity, Transmission, Distribution
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 2.69% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.95% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 5.99% |
| Payout Consistency | 90.3% |
| Payout Ratio | 59.6% |
| Risk via 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 18.4% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 31.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | 3.59% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.72 |
| Alpha | 9.17 |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.99 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.379 |
| Beta | 0.394 |
| Beta Downside | 0.597 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 19.04% |
| Mean DD | 3.73% |
| Median DD | 3.21% |
Description: NI NiSource December 19, 2025
NiSource Inc. (NYSE:NI) is a regulated utility holding company that serves roughly 2.4 million natural-gas customers and 0.5 million electric customers across Ohio, Pennsylvania, Virginia, Kentucky, Maryland, and northern Indiana. Its operations are split between the Columbia Operations and NIPSCO Operations segments, delivering gas via about 37,200 mi of distribution mains and 330 mi of transmission pipelines, while generating, transmitting, and distributing electricity through a diversified mix that includes coal, combined-cycle gas, hydro, wind, and solar assets.
According to NiSource’s 2023 Form 10-K (the most recent filing available as of December 2025), the company reported revenue of approximately **$7.5 billion**, an adjusted earnings-per-share of **$2.30**, and a **dividend yield near 2.8 %**. Its leverage measured by debt-to-EBITDA stood at roughly **4.5×**, indicating a moderate debt burden for a capital-intensive utility. Key economic drivers for NiSource include natural-gas price volatility (which affects both fuel costs for its gas-fired plants and the cost of supply to customers) and the regulatory environment, where state-level rate cases determine allowed returns on its regulated asset base. At the sector level, utilities like NiSource are increasingly sensitive to interest-rate movements because higher rates raise the cost of capital embedded in rate-case filings and can compress dividend yields.
For a deeper quantitative view of NiSource’s valuation metrics and scenario analysis, you might explore the data tools available on ValueRay.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income (895.6m TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 379.6m TTM) |
| FCFTA -0.02 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA 1.60pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -26.63% (prev -35.34%; Δ 8.71pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.06 (>3.0%) and CFO 2.19b > Net Income 895.6m (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (15.64b) to EBITDA (2.90b) ratio: 5.39 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.52 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (473.7m) change vs 12m ago 4.22% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 50.59% (prev 51.28%; Δ -0.69pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 19.40% (prev 17.16%; Δ 2.24pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 3.01 (EBITDA TTM 2.90b / Interest Expense TTM 588.7m) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' -0.04
| (A) -0.05 = (Total Current Assets 1.85b - Total Current Liabilities 3.53b) / Total Assets 34.40b |
| (B) -0.02 = Retained Earnings (Balance) -572.0m / Total Assets 34.40b |
| (C) 0.05 = EBIT TTM 1.77b / Avg Total Assets 32.62b |
| (D) -0.03 = Book Value of Equity -580.2m / Total Liabilities 23.16b |
| Total Rating: -0.04 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 45.16
| 1. Piotroski 2.50pt |
| 2. FCF Yield -1.53% |
| 3. FCF Margin -8.46% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 1.73 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 5.39 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 1.65)% |
| 7. RoE 10.07% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -2.47% |
| 9. EPS Trend 4.47% |
What is the price of NI shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +0.41%, over one month by -4.17%, over three months by +0.74% and over the past year by +17.39%.
Is NI a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 11
- Buy: 4
- Hold: 1
- Sell: 1
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the NI price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 46.4 | 11.4% |
| Analysts Target Price | 46.4 | 11.4% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 49.4 | 18.7% |
NI Fundamental Data Overview December 22, 2025
P/E Trailing = 21.5632
P/E Forward = 20.202
P/S = 3.0643
P/B = 2.1263
P/EG = 2.0182
Beta = 0.626
Revenue TTM = 6.33b USD
EBIT TTM = 1.77b USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.90b USD
Long Term Debt = 14.47b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.29b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 15.76b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 15.64b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 35.06b USD (19.39b + Debt 15.76b - CCE 95.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.01 (Ebit TTM 1.77b / Interest Expense TTM 588.7m)
FCF Yield = -1.53% (FCF TTM -535.5m / Enterprise Value 35.06b)
FCF Margin = -8.46% (FCF TTM -535.5m / Revenue TTM 6.33b)
Net Margin = 14.15% (Net Income TTM 895.6m / Revenue TTM 6.33b)
Gross Margin = 50.59% ((Revenue TTM 6.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 3.13b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 53.29% (prev 48.71%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.02 (Enterprise Value 35.06b / Total Assets 34.40b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.14% (Interest Expense 179.8m / Debt 15.76b)
Taxrate = 16.14% (20.6m / 127.6m)
NOPAT = 1.49b (EBIT 1.77b * (1 - 16.14%))
Current Ratio = 0.52 (Total Current Assets 1.85b / Total Current Liabilities 3.53b)
Debt / Equity = 1.73 (Debt 15.76b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 9.12b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.39 (Net Debt 15.64b / EBITDA 2.90b)
Debt / FCF = -29.21 (negative FCF - burning cash) (Net Debt 15.64b / FCF TTM -535.5m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 8.90b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.60% (Net Income 895.6m / Total Assets 34.40b)
RoE = 10.07% (Net Income TTM 895.6m / Total Stockholder Equity 8.90b)
RoCE = 7.58% (EBIT 1.77b / Capital Employed (Equity 8.90b + L.T.Debt 14.47b))
RoIC = 6.19% (NOPAT 1.49b / Invested Capital 23.99b)
WACC = 4.55% (E(19.39b)/V(35.15b) * Re(7.47%) + D(15.76b)/V(35.15b) * Rd(1.14%) * (1-Tc(0.16)))
Discount Rate = 7.47% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 8.05%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 2.68%
Fair Price DCF = unknown (Cash Flow -535.5m)
EPS Correlation: 4.47 | EPS CAGR: -17.45% | SUE: -0.33 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -2.47 | Revenue CAGR: -2.66% | SUE: 1.06 | # QB: 1
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.04 | Chg30d=+0.016 | Revisions Net=+2 | Analysts=6
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=2.06 | Chg30d=+0.007 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+8.4% | Growth Revenue=+7.4%
Additional Sources for NI Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle