NRG Stock Analysis: NRG Energy | NYSE
Utilities - Independent Power Producers | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 28.333m USD | 12M Return: -22% | US6293775085 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 347M
EPS Trend: 48.2%
Qual. Beats: 0
Rev. Trend: 69.8%
Qual. Beats: 2
Warnings
Tailwinds
No distinct edge detected
Seasonality 11.6 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
NRG Energy is a U.S. and Canadian energy and home services company that operates across five segments: Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities. It generates and sells electricity through a mix of fossil fuel and renewable assets, while also trading power, natural gas, environmental, and financial products. Beyond generation, NRG provides retail electricity, energy management, demand response, virtual power plant programs, carbon offsets, and carbon management solutions to residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. Its consumer-facing brands include NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint. Founded in 1989, the company is headquartered in Houston, Texas.
NRG operates as a competitive power generator and retail electricity provider, distinguishing it from regulated monopoly utilities that have guaranteed rate-of-return service territories. A meaningful share of its business is concentrated in Texas, where the retail electricity market is deregulated, allowing providers to compete directly for customers. The company has also expanded into adjacent consumer services through Vivint Smart Home, adding recurring-revenue subscription offerings such as home security, automation, and professional monitoring to its traditional energy business.
- Texas data center boom lifts NRG generation volumes and prices
- Natural gas and power spread volatility swings retail margins
- Vivint Smart Home subscriber growth accelerates recurring revenue
| Net Income: 849.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.92 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -0.88% < 20% (prev -2.00%; Δ 1.12% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 1.55b > Net Income 849.0m |
| Net Debt (23.5b) to EBITDA (4.23b): 5.56 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.0m) vs 12m ago 7.14% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 16.42% > 18% (prev 17.25%; Δ -0.84% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 114.8% > 50% (prev 121.9%; Δ -7.12% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.02b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b) |
| A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 9.65b - Total Current Liabilities 9.97b) / Total Assets 39.9b |
| B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 2.37b / Total Assets 39.9b) |
| C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 2.02b / Avg Total Assets 32.0b) |
| D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 4.86b / Total Liabilities 35.1b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 0.71 = B |
| DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 3.53b/3.42b, Revenue 36.8b/29.4b) |
| GMI: 1.05 (GM 17.25% / 16.42%) |
| AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.40 / AQ_t-1 0.52) |
| SGI: 1.25 (Revenue 36.8b / 29.4b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 849.0m - CFO 1.55b) / TA 39.9b) |
| Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
As of August 10, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 118.13 with a total of 2,909,181 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by -11.72%, over one month by -14.10%, over three months by -16.43% and over the past year by -21.95%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 108.20 (which is 8.4% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).
NRG Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.41. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NRG.
- StrongBuy: 11
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 2
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 0
| Analysts Target Price | 197 | 66.8% |
P/E Trailing = 30.4874
P/E Forward = 12.4844
P/S = 0.7155
P/B = 5.8725
P/EG = 0.5332
Revenue TTM = 36.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.02b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.23b USD
Long Term Debt = 21.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.55b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 211.0m
Net Debt = 23.5b USD (calculated: Debt 23.7b - CCE 162.0m)
Enterprise Value = 51.8b USD (28.3b + Debt 23.7b - CCE 162.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.90 (Ebit TTM 2.02b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b)
EV/FCF = 149.0x (Enterprise Value 51.8b / FCF TTM 348.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.67% (FCF TTM 348.0m / Enterprise Value 51.8b)
FCF Margin = 0.95% (FCF TTM 348.0m / Revenue TTM 36.8b)
Net Margin = 2.31% (Net Income TTM 849.0m / Revenue TTM 36.8b)
Gross Margin = 16.42% ((Revenue TTM 36.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 30.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.55% (prev 8.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.30 (Enterprise Value 51.8b / Total Assets 39.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.48% (Interest Expense 1.06b / Debt 23.7b)
Taxrate = 14.42% (143.0m / 992.0m)
NOPAT = 1.73b (EBIT 2.02b * (1 - 14.42%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 9.65b / Total Current Liabilities 9.97b)
Debt / Equity = 4.88 (Debt 23.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.56 (Net Debt 23.5b / EBITDA 4.23b)
Debt / FCF = 67.57 (Net Debt 23.5b / FCF TTM 348.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.65% (Net Income 849.0m / Total Assets 39.9b)
RoE = 25.38% (Net Income TTM 849.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.35b)
RoCE = 8.04% (EBIT 2.02b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.35b + L.T.Debt 21.7b))
RoIC = 5.50% (NOPAT 1.73b / Invested Capital 31.4b)
WACC = 8.30% (E(28.3b)/V(52.0b) * Re(12.04%) + D(23.7b)/V(52.0b) * Rd(4.48%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 12.04% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.86 | Cagr: -0.84%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈766.4m ; Y1≈672.1m ; Y5≈543.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 8.72b - Net Debt 23.5b = -14.8b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 48.24 | EPS CAGR: 15.68% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 69.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.03% | SUE: 2.39 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.97 | Chg30d=-5.94% | Revisions=+40% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.95 | Chg30d=-2.11% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+8.6% | GrowthRev=+17.8%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.50 | Chg30d=-2.51% | Revisions=-17% | GrowthEPS=+28.5% | GrowthRev=+5.2%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +10% (up=4, down=3)