NRG Stock Analysis: NRG Energy | NYSE

Retail Electricity, Smart Home, Energy Trading, Carbon Management

Total Rating 30

Safety 66

Buy Signal -0.42

Utilities - Independent Power Producers
Industry Rotation: +26.4

Market Cap: 20.0B
Avg Turnover: 300M

Risk 3d forecast

Volatility57.7%

VaR 5^th Pctl9.42%

VaR vs Median-0.81%

Reward TTM

Sharpe Ratio-0.64

Rel. Str. IBD6.4

Rel. Str. Peer Group5.3

Character TTM

Beta1.795

Beta Downside1.586

Hurst Exponent0.454

Drawdowns 3y

Max DD47.91%

CAGR/Max DD0.86

CAGR/Mean DD4.06

EPS (Earnings per Share)

EPS CAGR: 15.68%
EPS Trend: 48.2%

Last SUE: -0.25
Qual. Beats: 0

Revenue

Rev. CAGR: 6.03%
Rev. Trend: 69.8%

Last SUE: 2.39
Qual. Beats: 2

Warnings

High Debt/EBITDA With Thin Interest Coverage

Altman Z'' In Financial Distress Zone

Overextended 3d

Below Avwap Earnings

Below Sma 200d

Tailwinds

No distinct edge detected

Seasonality 11.7 years of data

Jan +0.1% 7

Feb -2.4% 30

Mar +4.4% 8

Apr +0.5% 10

May +3.2% 8

Jun -2.3% 8

Jul -0.1% 7

Aug +1.1% 5

Sep -1.1% 14

Oct -0.6% 11

Nov +2.8% 12

Dec +0.0% 0

How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.

Description: NRG NRG Energy

NRG Energy is a U.S.-listed (NYSE: NRG) energy and home services company headquartered in Houston, Texas, operating across the United States and Canada. It reports through five segments: Texas, East, West/Other, Vivint Smart Home, and Corporate Activities. As a retail electricity provider, NRG primarily serves customers in deregulated electricity markets, where consumers and businesses can choose their power supplier rather than relying on a single regulated utility.

The companys offerings span retail electricity, energy management, demand response, and virtual power plant programs, alongside carbon offsets and carbon management solutions. For large commercial and industrial customers, NRG provides system power, distributed and backup generation, energy storage, and renewable or low-carbon products. It also operates a generation portfolio across fossil fuel and renewable assets and trades physical and financial commodities such as power, natural gas, environmental products, and weather derivatives.

Through the Vivint Smart Home segment, NRG sells a cloud-based home platform combining hardware, software, installation, professional monitoring, and customer support for security and automation. Its consumer brands include NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy, and Vivint, serving residential, commercial, government, industrial, data center, and wholesale customers. NRG was founded in 1989 and is classified within the GICS Utilities sector, specifically the Electric Utilities sub-industry.

Headlines to Watch Out For

Data center power demand boosts commercial segment revenue
Vivint Smart Home subscriber growth and churn trends
Retail electricity margin pressure from Texas competitive pricing

Piotroski VR-10 (Strict) 1.0

Net Income: 849.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue
FCF/TA: 0.01 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -4.92 > 1.0
NWC/Revenue: -0.88% < 20% (prev -2.00%; Δ 1.12% < -1%)
CFO/TA 0.04 > 3% & CFO 1.55b > Net Income 849.0m
Net Debt (23.5b) to EBITDA (4.23b): 5.56 < 3
Current Ratio: 0.97 > 1.5 & < 3
Outstanding Shares: last quarter (210.0m) vs 12m ago 7.14% < -2%
Gross Margin: 16.42% > 18% (prev 17.25%; Δ -0.84% > 0.5%)
Asset Turnover: 114.8% > 50% (prev 121.9%; Δ -7.12% > 0%)
Interest Coverage Ratio: 1.90 > 6 (EBIT TTM 2.02b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b)

Altman Z'' 0.71

A: -0.01 (Total Current Assets 9.65b - Total Current Liabilities 9.97b) / Total Assets 39.9b
B: 0.06 (Retained Earnings 2.37b / Total Assets 39.9b)
C: 0.06 (EBIT TTM 2.02b / Avg Total Assets 32.0b)
D: 0.14 (Book Value of Equity 4.86b / Total Liabilities 35.1b)
Altman-Z'' = 0.71 = B

Beneish M -3.08

DSRI: 0.83 (Receivables 3.53b/3.42b, Revenue 36.8b/29.4b)
GMI: 1.05 (GM 17.25% / 16.42%)
AQI: 0.77 (AQ_t 0.40 / AQ_t-1 0.52)
SGI: 1.25 (Revenue 36.8b / 29.4b)
TATA: -0.02 (NI 849.0m - CFO 1.55b) / TA 39.9b)
Beneish M = -3.08 (Cap -4..+1) = AA

What is the price of NRG shares?

As of October 09, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 108.61 with a total of 5,364,144 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +13.55%, over one month by -9.22%, over three months by -21.02% and over the past year by -32.38%.

Current recommended Stop Loss: 103.10 (which is 5.1% or 1.3 ATR below the current price).

Is NRG a buy, sell or hold?

NRG Energy has received a consensus analysts rating of 4.44. Therefore, it is recommended to buy NRG.

StrongBuy: 10
Buy: 3
Hold: 3
Sell: 0
StrongSell: 0

What are the forecasts/targets for the NRG price?

Analysts Target Price	185.5	70.8%

NRG Energy (NRG) - Fundamental Data Overview as of 05 October 2026

Market Cap USD = 20.0b (20.0b USD * 1.0 USD.USD)
P/E Trailing = 24.7995
P/E Forward = 9.0253
P/S = 0.6043
P/B = 5.0351
P/EG = 0.3865
Revenue TTM = 36.8b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.02b USD
EBITDA TTM = 4.23b USD
Long Term Debt = 21.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 1.55b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 23.7b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter) + Leases 211.0m
Net Debt = 23.5b USD (calculated: Debt 23.7b - CCE 162.0m)
Enterprise Value = 43.5b USD (20.0b + Debt 23.7b - CCE 162.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 1.90 (Ebit TTM 2.02b / Interest Expense TTM 1.06b)
EV/FCF = 125.1x (Enterprise Value 43.5b / FCF TTM 348.0m)
FCF Yield = 0.80% (FCF TTM 348.0m / Enterprise Value 43.5b)
FCF Margin = 0.95% (FCF TTM 348.0m / Revenue TTM 36.8b)
Net Margin = 2.31% (Net Income TTM 849.0m / Revenue TTM 36.8b)
Gross Margin = 16.42% ((Revenue TTM 36.8b - Cost of Revenue TTM 30.7b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 14.55% (prev 8.25%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.09 (Enterprise Value 43.5b / Total Assets 39.9b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.48% (Interest Expense 1.06b / Debt 23.7b)
Taxrate = 14.42% (143.0m / 992.0m)
NOPAT = 1.73b (EBIT 2.02b * (1 - 14.42%))
Current Ratio = 0.97 (Total Current Assets 9.65b / Total Current Liabilities 9.97b)
Debt / Equity = 4.88 (Debt 23.7b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 4.86b)
Debt / EBITDA = 5.56 (Net Debt 23.5b / EBITDA 4.23b)
Debt / FCF = 67.57 (Net Debt 23.5b / FCF TTM 348.0m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 3.35b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 2.65% (Net Income 849.0m / Total Assets 39.9b)
RoE = 25.38% (Net Income TTM 849.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 3.35b)
RoCE = 8.04% (EBIT 2.02b / Capital Employed (Equity 3.35b + L.T.Debt 21.7b))
RoIC = 5.50% (NOPAT 1.73b / Invested Capital 31.4b)
WACC = 7.71% (E(20.0b)/V(43.7b) * Re(12.30%) + D(23.7b)/V(43.7b) * Rd(4.48%) * (1-Tc(0.14)))
Discount Rate = 12.30% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -46.86 | Cagr: -0.84%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.10% ; FCFF base≈766.4m ; Y1≈672.1m ; Y5≈543.0m
[DCF] Fair Price = N/A (negative equity: EV 8.72b - Net Debt 23.5b = -14.8b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 48.24 | EPS CAGR: 15.68% | SUE: -0.25 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 69.79 | Revenue CAGR: 6.03% | SUE: 2.39 | # QB: 2
EPS current Quarter (2026-09-30): EPS=2.87 | Chg30d=-9.65% | Revisions=+17% | Analysts=5
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=8.83 | Chg30d=+0.29% | Revisions=-70% | GrowthEPS=+7.2% | GrowthRev=+15.7%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=11.19 | Chg30d=+2.00% | Revisions=-25% | GrowthEPS=+26.7% | GrowthRev=+3.8%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: -50% (up=2, down=9)