(NRG) NRG Energy - Overview
Stock: Electricity, Natural Gas, Home Services, Energy Trading, Smart Home
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 1.65% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 4.82% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 7.87% |
| Payout Consistency | 88.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 25.4% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 50.7% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -8.42% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.97 |
| Alpha | 29.09 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.659 |
| Beta Downside | 1.587 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 26.22% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 2.60 |
Description: NRG NRG Energy February 11, 2026
NRG Energy Inc. (NYSE: NRG) is a U.S.-based energy and home-services firm that operates across five segments: Texas; East; West/Services/Other; Vivint Smart Home; and Corporate Activities. The company generates and sells electricity from a diversified mix of coal, oil, natural gas, solar and battery-storage assets, while also offering a cloud-based home-automation platform (hardware, software, installation and monitoring) under brands such as NRG, Reliant, Direct Energy, Green Mountain Energy and Vivint. Its customer base spans residential, commercial, government, industrial and wholesale accounts in the United States and Canada.
In its FY 2025 results (Form 10-K filed Feb 2026), NRG reported $15.2 billion of total revenue, a 4.3 % year-over-year increase driven primarily by higher retail electricity sales and growth in its Vivint Smart Home subscription base (+12 % YoY). Adjusted EBITDA rose to $2.1 billion, reflecting improved margins on its natural-gas-fired generation fleet and the ramp-up of battery-storage projects that now represent ≈ 5 % of its total generation capacity. Renewable generation (solar + battery) accounted for 23 % of NRG’s net generation in 2025, up from 18 % in 2024, aligning with sector-wide decarbonization trends and state-level renewable-energy mandates. A key economic driver remains electricity price volatility in the ERCOT market, which can swing NRG’s earnings by ± $300 million depending on weather-driven demand spikes.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of how these dynamics translate into valuation metrics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst dashboard can help you spot any material gaps in the public data set.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 7.5
| Net Income: 1.44b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.07 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 2.05 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 1.38% < 20% (prev 4.49%; Δ -3.11% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.11 > 3% & CFO 2.74b > Net Income 1.44b |
| Net Debt (11.35b) to EBITDA (3.79b): 2.99 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 1.05 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (195.0m) vs 12m ago -5.80% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 20.54% > 18% (prev 0.16%; Δ 2038 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 124.9% > 50% (prev 118.5%; Δ 6.35% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 3.90 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 3.79b / Interest Expense TTM 617.0m) |
Altman Z'' 1.15
| A: 0.02 (Total Current Assets 8.12b - Total Current Liabilities 7.71b) / Total Assets 23.97b |
| B: 0.08 (Retained Earnings 2.00b / Total Assets 23.97b) |
| C: 0.10 (EBIT TTM 2.41b / Avg Total Assets 23.85b) |
| D: 0.09 (Book Value of Equity 1.90b / Total Liabilities 22.00b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 1.15 = BB |
Beneish M -3.31
| DSRI: 0.97 (Receivables 3.33b/3.26b, Revenue 29.78b/28.12b) |
| GMI: 0.78 (GM 20.54% / 16.09%) |
| AQI: 0.93 (AQ_t 0.51 / AQ_t-1 0.55) |
| SGI: 1.06 (Revenue 29.78b / 28.12b) |
| TATA: -0.05 (NI 1.44b - CFO 2.74b) / TA 23.97b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.31 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of NRG shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +4.43%, over one month by +4.65%, over three months by -6.31% and over the past year by +49.89%.
Is NRG a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 5
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 1
What are the forecasts/targets for the NRG price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 202.8 | 30.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 202.8 | 30.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 230.3 | 47.9% |
NRG Fundamental Data Overview February 07, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.6113
P/S = 1.1115
P/B = 23.6235
P/EG = 1.2483
Revenue TTM = 29.78b USD
EBIT TTM = 2.41b USD
EBITDA TTM = 3.79b USD
Long Term Debt = 11.15b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 813.0m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 12.11b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 11.35b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 44.48b USD (33.10b + Debt 12.11b - CCE 732.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 3.90 (Ebit TTM 2.41b / Interest Expense TTM 617.0m)
EV/FCF = 26.06x (Enterprise Value 44.48b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
FCF Yield = 3.84% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Enterprise Value 44.48b)
FCF Margin = 5.73% (FCF TTM 1.71b / Revenue TTM 29.78b)
Net Margin = 4.84% (Net Income TTM 1.44b / Revenue TTM 29.78b)
Gross Margin = 20.54% ((Revenue TTM 29.78b - Cost of Revenue TTM 23.66b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 13.54% (prev 16.48%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.86 (Enterprise Value 44.48b / Total Assets 23.97b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.55% (Interest Expense 188.0m / Debt 12.11b)
Taxrate = 36.13% (86.0m / 238.0m)
NOPAT = 1.54b (EBIT 2.41b * (1 - 36.13%))
Current Ratio = 1.05 (Total Current Assets 8.12b / Total Current Liabilities 7.71b)
Debt / Equity = 6.15 (Debt 12.11b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.97b)
Debt / EBITDA = 2.99 (Net Debt 11.35b / EBITDA 3.79b)
Debt / FCF = 6.65 (Net Debt 11.35b / FCF TTM 1.71b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 2.38b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 6.04% (Net Income 1.44b / Total Assets 23.97b)
RoE = 60.59% (Net Income TTM 1.44b / Total Stockholder Equity 2.38b)
RoCE = 17.79% (EBIT 2.41b / Capital Employed (Equity 2.38b + L.T.Debt 11.15b))
RoIC = 11.96% (NOPAT 1.54b / Invested Capital 12.85b)
WACC = 9.07% (E(33.10b)/V(45.21b) * Re(12.03%) + D(12.11b)/V(45.21b) * Rd(1.55%) * (1-Tc(0.36)))
Discount Rate = 12.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -6.28%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 65.51% ; FCFF base≈1.51b ; Y1≈988.5m ; Y5≈451.0m
Fair Price DCF = N/A (negative equity: EV 7.43b - Net Debt 11.35b = -3.92b; debt exceeds intrinsic value)
EPS Correlation: 19.52 | EPS CAGR: -18.86% | SUE: -1.09 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -16.26 | Revenue CAGR: 2.16% | SUE: 0.15 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=3.14 | Chg30d=-0.239 | Revisions Net=-1 | Analysts=7
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.56 | Chg30d=+0.041 | Revisions Net=+2 | Growth EPS=+19.4% | Growth Revenue=+20.6%