NVS Stock Analysis: Novartis | NYSE
Drug Manufacturers - General | NYSE, USA | Market Cap: 294.776m USD | 12M Return: 36% | US66987V1098 | Charts, Fundamentals & Technical Analysis
Avg Turnover: 292M
EPS Trend: 84.8%
Qual. Beats: 2
Rev. Trend: 93.9%
Qual. Beats: 0
Warnings
No concerns identified
Tailwinds
Seasonality 11.7 years of data
How good or bad each month usually is (without trend). The score below shows how much you can trust it: 0 = pure chance, >40 gets interesting and >55 is strong.
Novartis AG is a Swiss-headquartered pharmaceutical company that researches, develops, manufactures, and markets medicines globally. Its portfolio spans cardiovascular, renal and metabolic diseases, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology, with major products including Entresto for heart failure, Cosentyx for inflammatory conditions, Kisqali for breast cancer, Pluvicto for prostate cancer, Zolgensma for spinal muscular atrophy, and Leqvio for LDL cholesterol reduction. The company also maintains a license and collaboration agreement with Alnylam Pharmaceuticals to commercialize Leqvio (inclisiran).
As one of the worlds largest pharmaceutical manufacturers by market capitalization, Novartis operates a global drug development and commercialization business model that relies on patent-protected branded therapies sold across multiple geographies. The company was incorporated in 1996 and is headquartered in Basel, Switzerland, with its ADR listed on the NYSE under the ticker NVS.
- Entresto patent cliff pressures near-term US revenue
- Pluvicto and Kisqali accelerate oncology segment growth
- Cost reduction program targets margin expansion through 2026
| Net Income: 10.0b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.13 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -3.23 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.71% < 20% (prev -6.74%; Δ 0.03% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 > 3% & CFO 17.3b > Net Income 10.0b |
| Net Debt (30.1b) to EBITDA (22.0b): 1.37 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.89b) vs 12m ago -2.65% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 74.62% > 18% (prev 76.21%; Δ -1.59% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 50.17% > 50% (prev 52.54%; Δ -2.37% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 9.02 > 6 (EBIT TTM 14.2b / Interest Expense TTM 1.58b) |
| A: -0.03 (Total Current Assets 28.7b - Total Current Liabilities 32.5b) / Total Assets 117b |
| B: 0.33 (Retained Earnings 39.2b / Total Assets 117b) |
| C: 0.13 (EBIT TTM 14.2b / Avg Total Assets 112b) |
| D: 0.47 (Book Value of Equity 37.2b / Total Liabilities 79.6b) |
| Altman-Z'' = 2.22 = BBB |
| DSRI: 1.09 (Receivables 9.78b/8.98b, Revenue 56.3b/56.4b) |
| GMI: 1.02 (GM 76.21% / 74.62%) |
| AQI: 1.04 (AQ_t 0.65 / AQ_t-1 0.63) |
| SGI: 1.00 (Revenue 56.3b / 56.4b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 10.0b - CFO 17.3b) / TA 117b) |
| Beneish M = -2.92 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
As of November 05, 2026, the stock is trading at USD 164.98 with a total of 1,744,266 shares traded. Over the past week, the price has changed by +5.70%, over one month by +17.07%, over three months by +7.64% and over the past year by +35.99%.
Current recommended Stop Loss: 157.20 (which is 4.7% or 2.5 ATR below the current price).
Novartis has received a consensus analysts rating of 3.33. Therefore, it is recommended to hold NVS.
- StrongBuy: 2
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 5
- Sell: 1
- StrongSell: 1
| Analysts Target Price | 155.3 | -5.9% |
P/E Trailing = 29.7863
P/E Forward = 16.1031
P/S = 5.1387
P/B = 7.9181
P/EG = 3.657
Revenue TTM = 56.3b USD
EBIT TTM = 14.2b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.0b USD
Long Term Debt = 36.7b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 9.65b USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 39.0b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year) + Leases 1.96b
Net Debt = 30.1b USD (calculated: Debt 39.0b - CCE 8.87b)
Enterprise Value = 325b USD (295b + Debt 39.0b - CCE 8.87b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 9.02 (Ebit TTM 14.2b / Interest Expense TTM 1.58b)
EV/FCF = 21.89x (Enterprise Value 325b / FCF TTM 14.8b)
FCF Yield = 4.57% (FCF TTM 14.8b / Enterprise Value 325b)
FCF Margin = 26.36% (FCF TTM 14.8b / Revenue TTM 56.3b)
Net Margin = 17.82% (Net Income TTM 10.0b / Revenue TTM 56.3b)
Gross Margin = 74.62% ((Revenue TTM 56.3b - Cost of Revenue TTM 14.3b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.99% (prev 74.47%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.77 (Enterprise Value 325b / Total Assets 117b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 4.04% (Interest Expense 1.58b / Debt 39.0b)
Taxrate = 20.80% (2.63b / 12.6b)
NOPAT = 11.3b (EBIT 14.2b * (1 - 20.80%))
Current Ratio = 0.88 (Total Current Assets 28.7b / Total Current Liabilities 32.5b)
Debt / Equity = 1.05 (Debt 39.0b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 37.2b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.37 (Net Debt 30.1b / EBITDA 22.0b)
Debt / FCF = 2.03 (Net Debt 30.1b / FCF TTM 14.8b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 40.9b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 8.94% (Net Income 10.0b / Total Assets 117b)
RoE = 24.56% (Net Income TTM 10.0b / Total Stockholder Equity 40.9b)
RoCE = 18.34% (EBIT 14.2b / Capital Employed (Equity 40.9b + L.T.Debt 36.7b))
RoIC = 12.86% (NOPAT 11.3b / Invested Capital 87.6b)
WACC = 5.11% (E(295b)/V(334b) * Re(5.36%) + D(39.0b)/V(334b) * Rd(4.04%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 5.36% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares (quarterly) Correlation: -98.84 | Cagr: -3.13%
[DCF] Terminal Value 73.45% ; FCFF base≈15.7b ; Y1≈14.1b ; Y5≈11.8b
[DCF] Fair Price = 83.92 (EV 189b - Net Debt 30.1b = Equity 158b / Shares 1.89b; r=8.35% [WACC [floored]]; 5y FCF grow -13.01% → 2.50% )
EPS Correlation: 84.84 | EPS CAGR: 10.06% | SUE: 2.12 | # QB: 2
Revenue Correlation: 93.86 | Revenue CAGR: 7.68% | SUE: 0.78 | # QB: 0
EPS current Quarter (2027-03-31): EPS=2.27 | Chg30d=-2.58% | Revisions=+0% | Analysts=2
EPS current Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.15 | Chg30d=+3.46% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+1.9% | GrowthRev=+1.1%
EPS next Year (2027-12-31): EPS=9.91 | Chg30d=+0.69% | Revisions=+0% | GrowthEPS=+8.2% | GrowthRev=+7.1%
[Analyst] Revisions Ratio: +0% (up=4, down=4)