(NVS) Novartis - Overview
Stock: Oncology, Immunology, Cardiovascular, Neuroscience, Hematology
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
Dividends
| Dividend Yield | 3.68% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 5.76% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 4.28% |
| Payout Consistency | 96.5% |
| Payout Ratio | 44.7% |
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 20.2% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -2.13% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 1.69 |
| Alpha | 42.58 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.243 |
| Beta Downside | 0.216 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 19.95% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 1.38 |
Description: NVS Novartis January 26, 2026
Novartis AG (NYSE:NVS) is a Swiss-based, globally integrated pharmaceutical company that discovers, develops, manufactures, and markets a broad portfolio of prescription medicines across therapeutic areas such as cardiovascular-renal-metabolic, immunology, neuroscience, oncology, and hematology. Its flagship products include Entresto (HFrEF), Cosentyx (psoriasis/arthritis), Kisqali (CDK4/6 inhibitor), Jakavi (myelofibrosis), and Leqvio (inclisiran, LDL-cholesterol lowering) among many others.
Key recent performance metrics (FY 2023): revenue $51.6 billion (up 5% YoY), net income $8.1 billion, and R&D expenditure $9.3 billion (≈18% of sales). Leqvio, launched in 2021, generated $1.2 billion in sales in 2023, reflecting strong uptake in the growing LDL-lowering market, which is projected to expand at a 5-6% CAGR through 2028. The company’s dividend yield sits near 3.5% and it has repurchased $3 billion of shares in the past year, indicating a focus on returning capital to shareholders.
Strategic drivers include an aging global population that fuels demand for chronic-disease therapies, continued pressure on drug pricing in the U.S. and Europe, and a competitive landscape where biologics and gene-therapy platforms (e.g., Zolgensma) are reshaping treatment paradigms. Novartis’s partnership with Alnylam on Leqvio exemplifies its strategy to leverage RNA-interference technology to expand its cardiovascular franchise.
For a deeper quantitative assessment, you might explore ValueRay’s detailed valuation models.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 9.0
| Net Income: 14.39b TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.16 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 3.45 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: -6.74% < 20% (prev 6.27%; Δ -13.02% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.20 > 3% & CFO 21.07b > Net Income 14.39b |
| Net Debt (22.47b) to EBITDA (22.94b): 0.98 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 0.88 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (1.94b) vs 12m ago -4.29% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 76.21% > 18% (prev 0.75%; Δ 7546 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 53.48% > 50% (prev 48.24%; Δ 5.24% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 15.68 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 22.94b / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b) |
Altman Z'' 2.95
| A: -0.04 (Total Current Assets 28.20b - Total Current Liabilities 32.00b) / Total Assets 107.29b |
| B: 0.41 (Retained Earnings 43.51b / Total Assets 107.29b) |
| C: 0.17 (EBIT TTM 17.53b / Avg Total Assets 105.41b) |
| D: 0.71 (Book Value of Equity 44.37b / Total Liabilities 62.54b) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 2.95 = A |
Beneish M -3.00
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 8.98b/8.15b, Revenue 56.37b/49.94b) |
| GMI: 0.98 (GM 76.21% / 74.92%) |
| AQI: 1.06 (AQ_t 0.63 / AQ_t-1 0.59) |
| SGI: 1.13 (Revenue 56.37b / 49.94b) |
| TATA: -0.06 (NI 14.39b - CFO 21.07b) / TA 107.29b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.00 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of NVS shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by +1.05%, over one month by +7.18%, over three months by +21.26% and over the past year by +47.05%.
Is NVS a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 9
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 2
What are the forecasts/targets for the NVS price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 140 | -5.8% |
| Analysts Target Price | 140 | -5.8% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 196.3 | 32% |
NVS Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 16.2338
P/S = 5.0894
P/B = 6.4455
P/EG = 1.2105
Revenue TTM = 56.37b USD
EBIT TTM = 17.53b USD
EBITDA TTM = 22.94b USD
Long Term Debt = 22.60b USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 7.78b USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 32.02b USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 22.47b USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 309.36b USD (286.90b + Debt 32.02b - CCE 9.56b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 15.68 (Ebit TTM 17.53b / Interest Expense TTM 1.12b)
EV/FCF = 18.13x (Enterprise Value 309.36b / FCF TTM 17.06b)
FCF Yield = 5.51% (FCF TTM 17.06b / Enterprise Value 309.36b)
FCF Margin = 30.26% (FCF TTM 17.06b / Revenue TTM 56.37b)
Net Margin = 25.53% (Net Income TTM 14.39b / Revenue TTM 56.37b)
Gross Margin = 76.21% ((Revenue TTM 56.37b - Cost of Revenue TTM 13.41b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 75.35% (prev 77.61%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.88 (Enterprise Value 309.36b / Total Assets 107.29b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.88% (Interest Expense 281.0m / Debt 32.02b)
Taxrate = 6.34% (266.0m / 4.20b)
NOPAT = 16.42b (EBIT 17.53b * (1 - 6.34%))
Current Ratio = 0.88 (Total Current Assets 28.20b / Total Current Liabilities 32.00b)
Debt / Equity = 0.72 (Debt 32.02b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 44.33b)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.98 (Net Debt 22.47b / EBITDA 22.94b)
Debt / FCF = 1.32 (Net Debt 22.47b / FCF TTM 17.06b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 42.18b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 13.65% (Net Income 14.39b / Total Assets 107.29b)
RoE = 34.12% (Net Income TTM 14.39b / Total Stockholder Equity 42.18b)
RoCE = 27.07% (EBIT 17.53b / Capital Employed (Equity 42.18b + L.T.Debt 22.60b))
RoIC = 22.77% (NOPAT 16.42b / Invested Capital 72.14b)
WACC = 6.21% (E(286.90b)/V(318.92b) * Re(6.81%) + D(32.02b)/V(318.92b) * Rd(0.88%) * (1-Tc(0.06)))
Discount Rate = 6.81% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.) -> floored to rf + 0.7*ERP = 7.95%
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -3.07%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 86.23% ; FCFF base≈15.39b ; Y1≈17.29b ; Y5≈23.10b
Fair Price DCF = 309.6 (EV 616.43b - Net Debt 22.47b = Equity 593.97b / Shares 1.92b; r=6.21% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 14.32% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 92.90 | EPS CAGR: 13.49% | SUE: -0.57 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 48.64 | Revenue CAGR: 1.61% | SUE: 1.00 | # QB: 2
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=2.08 | Chg30d=N/A | Revisions Net=+0 | Analysts=1
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=9.23 | Chg30d=+0.011 | Revisions Net=+0 | Growth EPS=+3.5% | Growth Revenue=+2.4%