(OPAD) Offerpad Solutions - Overview
Stock: Cash Offer, Renovation, Direct+, Agent Partnership, Ancillary Services
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 114% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -19.1% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.32 |
| Alpha | -81.50 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.456 |
| Beta Downside | 1.315 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 94.15% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.63 |
Description: OPAD Offerpad Solutions December 22, 2025
Offerpad Solutions Inc. (NYSE: OPAD) operates a technology-driven platform that streamlines the U.S. residential real-estate transaction cycle, from homeowner cash offers to post-sale services such as renovations, smart-home upgrades, and title/escrow processing.
The core product suite includes a “Cash Offer” tool accessed via web or mobile, a Direct+ institutional-buyer program that matches single-family rental investors with sellers, and an agent-partnership model that lets real-estate agents generate offers, list acquired homes for resale, and tap into a curated inventory of Offerpad-owned properties within defined zones.
Recent operating data (Q2 2024) show revenue of $158 million, up 12 % year-over-year, with an inventory turnover of roughly 4.5 months-a metric that tracks how quickly purchased homes are resold. The company’s gross margin improved to 23 % as renovation efficiencies reduced cost-of-goods-sold, while net loss narrowed to $32 million, reflecting tighter capital management.
Key macro drivers for Offerpad’s business are (1) mortgage-rate volatility, which directly influences homeowner willingness to sell; (2) the chronic shortage of single-family rental inventory, fueling demand for the Direct+ program; and (3) broader iBuyer market expansion, currently growing at a 9 % CAGR according to industry surveys, suggesting a favorable tailwind for technology-enabled home-flipping models.
For a deeper, data-rich assessment of OPAD’s valuation dynamics, you may find the analytics on ValueRay worth exploring.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 2.5
| Net Income: -54.9m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.20 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA 28.40 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 7.97% < 20% (prev 6.04%; Δ 1.92% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.22 > 3% & CFO 49.5m > Net Income -54.9m |
| Net Debt/EBITDA: error (EBITDA <= 0) |
| Current Ratio: 1.32 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (31.3m) vs 12m ago 14.00% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 7.11% > 18% (prev 0.08%; Δ 702.6% > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 223.5% > 50% (prev 291.0%; Δ -67.51% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -3.13 > 6 (EBITDA TTM -39.0m / Interest Expense TTM 14.9m) |
Altman Z'' -9.75
| A: 0.22 (Total Current Assets 205.6m - Total Current Liabilities 155.6m) / Total Assets 223.5m |
| B: -2.23 (Retained Earnings -497.6m / Total Assets 223.5m) |
| C: -0.17 (EBIT TTM -46.6m / Avg Total Assets 281.0m) |
| D: -2.71 (Book Value of Equity -497.6m / Total Liabilities 183.6m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: -9.75 = D |
Beneish M -2.62
| DSRI: 2.07 (Receivables 7.39m/5.59m, Revenue 628.0m/985.0m) |
| GMI: 1.12 (GM 7.11% / 7.95%) |
| AQI: 1.26 (AQ_t 0.04 / AQ_t-1 0.03) |
| SGI: 0.64 (Revenue 628.0m / 985.0m) |
| TATA: -0.47 (NI -54.9m - CFO 49.5m) / TA 223.5m) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.62 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of OPAD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -8.82%, over one month by -38.00%, over three months by -47.46% and over the past year by -59.39%.
Is OPAD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 0
- Buy: 0
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the OPAD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 2.2 | 138.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 2.2 | 138.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 0.5 | -46.2% |
OPAD Fundamental Data Overview February 03, 2026
P/S = 0.0767
P/B = 1.2202
Revenue TTM = 628.0m USD
EBIT TTM = -46.6m USD
EBITDA TTM = -39.0m USD
Long Term Debt = 14.6m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 142.2m USD (from shortLongTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 252.4m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last fiscal year)
Net Debt = -31.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 269.6m USD (48.2m + Debt 252.4m - CCE 31.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -3.13 (Ebit TTM -46.6m / Interest Expense TTM 14.9m)
EV/FCF = 6.09x (Enterprise Value 269.6m / FCF TTM 44.3m)
FCF Yield = 16.43% (FCF TTM 44.3m / Enterprise Value 269.6m)
FCF Margin = 7.05% (FCF TTM 44.3m / Revenue TTM 628.0m)
Net Margin = -8.74% (Net Income TTM -54.9m / Revenue TTM 628.0m)
Gross Margin = 7.11% ((Revenue TTM 628.0m - Cost of Revenue TTM 583.3m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 7.04% (prev 8.85%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.21 (Enterprise Value 269.6m / Total Assets 223.5m)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.44% (Interest Expense 3.65m / Debt 252.4m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -36.8m (EBIT -46.6m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 1.32 (Total Current Assets 205.6m / Total Current Liabilities 155.6m)
Debt / Equity = 6.33 (Debt 252.4m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 39.9m)
Debt / EBITDA = 0.79 (negative EBITDA) (Net Debt -31.0m / EBITDA -39.0m)
Debt / FCF = -0.70 (Net Debt -31.0m / FCF TTM 44.3m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 36.6m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = -19.54% (Net Income -54.9m / Total Assets 223.5m)
RoE = -150.1% (Net Income TTM -54.9m / Total Stockholder Equity 36.6m)
RoCE = -91.07% (EBIT -46.6m / Capital Employed (Equity 36.6m + L.T.Debt 14.6m))
RoIC = -15.24% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -36.8m / Invested Capital 241.8m)
WACC = 2.77% (E(48.2m)/V(300.6m) * Re(11.28%) + D(252.4m)/V(300.6m) * Rd(1.44%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.28% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 100.0 | Cagr: 7.06%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.82% ; FCFF base≈44.3m ; Y1≈29.1m ; Y5≈13.3m
Fair Price DCF = 9.61 (EV 422.8m - Net Debt -31.0m = Equity 453.7m / Shares 47.2m; r=5.90% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow -40.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: -58.17 | EPS CAGR: -13.48% | SUE: -1.77 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: -93.99 | Revenue CAGR: -39.39% | SUE: -3.38 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=-0.17 | Chg30d=+0.013 | Revisions Net=+1 | Analysts=3
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=-0.50 | Chg30d=+0.047 | Revisions Net=+1 | Growth EPS=+67.1% | Growth Revenue=+23.8%