(PBR) Petroleo Brasileiro - Ratings and Ratios
Crude Oil, Natural Gas, Refined Products, Electricity, Biodiesel
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk via 10d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 31.3% |
| Value at Risk 5%th | 46.3% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -10.01% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.13 |
| Alpha | -6.23 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Hurst Exponent | 0.534 |
| Beta | 0.675 |
| Beta Downside | 0.985 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 25.93% |
| Mean DD | 9.44% |
| Median DD | 9.35% |
Description: PBR Petroleo Brasileiro September 26, 2025
Petrobras (NYSE:PBR) is Brazil’s state-controlled integrated oil and gas company, operating across three core segments: Exploration & Production (E&P), Refining, Transportation & Marketing (RTM), and Gas & Low-Carbon Energies (G&LCE). The E&P unit focuses on developing onshore and offshore fields-particularly the high-yield pre-salt basins-to supply domestic refineries, while RTM handles crude intake, refining, logistics, product trading, and holds stakes in petrochemical ventures. The G&LCE segment manages natural-gas and electricity logistics, LNG trading, thermoelectric generation, renewable projects, biodiesel production, and other low-carbon initiatives.
Key operating metrics (2023) show Petrobras produced roughly 2.5 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, with net debt hovering around US$ 75 billion, reflecting its aggressive capital-intensive deep-water program. The company’s profitability is tightly linked to Brazil’s fiscal reforms and the real’s exchange rate, which affect both domestic demand for fuel and the cost base of imported equipment.
Sector-level drivers that shape Petrobras’ outlook include global oil price volatility (WTI ± $10 / bbl swings can move earnings by ± 10 %), the ongoing energy transition that pressures integrated majors to diversify into low-carbon assets, and Brazil’s regulatory environment, where recent de-privatization and concession auctions aim to boost private-sector participation in upstream projects.
For a data-driven deep-dive into Petrobras’ valuation metrics, the ValueRay platform offers a transparent, model-backed view.
PBR Stock Overview
| Market Cap in USD | 84,279m |
| Sub-Industry | Integrated Oil & Gas |
| IPO / Inception | 2000-08-10 |
| Return 12m vs S&P 500 | -10.6% |
| Analyst Rating | 4.36 of 5 |
PBR Dividends
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Dividend Yield | 17.10% |
| Yield on Cost 5y | 75.78% |
| Yield CAGR 5y | 80.29% |
| Payout Consistency | 67.6% |
| Payout Ratio | 45.7% |
PBR Growth Ratios
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| CAGR 3y | 26.13% |
| CAGR/Max DD Calmar Ratio | 1.01 |
| CAGR/Mean DD Pain Ratio | 2.77 |
| Current Volume | 15817.7k |
| Average Volume | 23423.1k |
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 5.0
| Net Income (12.35b TTM) > 0 and > 6% of Revenue (6% = 4.46b TTM) |
| FCFTA 0.07 (>2.0%) and ΔFCFTA -6.03pp (YES ≥ +1.0pp, WARN ≥ +0.5pp) |
| NWC/Revenue -8.35% (prev -2.17%; Δ -6.17pp) (YES ≤20% & Δ≤-1pp; WARN ≤25% & Δ≤0 oder ≤40% & Δ≤-3pp) |
| CFO/TA 0.15 (>3.0%) and CFO 33.59b > Net Income 12.35b (YES >=105%, WARN >=100%) |
| Net Debt (61.75b) to EBITDA (42.71b) ratio: 1.45 <= 3.0 (WARN <= 3.5) |
| Current Ratio 0.82 (target 1.5–3.0; WARN 1.2–<1.5 or >3.0–5.0; CFO/TA gate active) |
| Outstanding Shares last Quarter (6.44b) change vs 12m ago 0.00% (target <= -2.0% for YES) |
| Gross Margin 47.72% (prev 51.28%; Δ -3.56pp) >=18% & Δ>=+0.5pp (WARN >=15% & Δ>=0) |
| Asset Turnover 34.93% (prev 49.38%; Δ -14.45pp) >=50% & Δ>=+2pp (WARN >=35% & Δ>=0) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio 7.31 (EBITDA TTM 42.71b / Interest Expense TTM 4.71b) >= 6 (WARN >= 3) |
Altman Z'' 1.66
| (A) -0.03 = (Total Current Assets 28.08b - Total Current Liabilities 34.29b) / Total Assets 227.89b |
| (B) 0.06 = Retained Earnings (Balance) 13.20b / Total Assets 227.89b |
| (C) 0.16 = EBIT TTM 34.43b / Avg Total Assets 212.86b |
| (D) 0.54 = Book Value of Equity 79.52b / Total Liabilities 147.99b |
| Total Rating: 1.66 = (6.56 * A) + (3.26 * B) + (6.72 * C) + (1.05 * D) |
ValueRay F-Score (Strict, 0-100) 68.34
| 1. Piotroski 5.0pt |
| 2. FCF Yield 3.20% |
| 3. FCF Margin 22.15% |
| 4. Debt/Equity 0.89 |
| 5. Debt/Ebitda 1.45 |
| 6. ROIC - WACC (= 18.86)% |
| 7. RoE 17.59% |
| 8. Rev. Trend -45.79% |
| 9. EPS Trend -50.05% |
What is the price of PBR shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -2.74%, over one month by +7.77%, over three months by +4.42% and over the past year by -0.17%.
Is PBR a buy, sell or hold?
- Strong Buy: 8
- Buy: 3
- Hold: 3
- Sell: 0
- Strong Sell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PBR price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 14.7 | 15.5% |
| Analysts Target Price | 14.7 | 15.5% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 19.1 | 49.9% |
PBR Fundamental Data Overview November 16, 2025
P/E Trailing = 6.0324
P/E Forward = 5.0684
P/S = 0.1672
P/B = 1.0681
P/EG = 0.2448
Beta = 0.066
Revenue TTM = 74.35b BRL
EBIT TTM = 34.43b BRL
EBITDA TTM = 42.71b BRL
Long Term Debt = 25.64b BRL (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 12.07b BRL (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 70.71b BRL (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 61.75b BRL (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 514.40b BRL (455.34b + Debt 70.71b - CCE 11.66b)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 7.31 (Ebit TTM 34.43b / Interest Expense TTM 4.71b)
FCF Yield = 3.20% (FCF TTM 16.47b / Enterprise Value 514.40b)
FCF Margin = 22.15% (FCF TTM 16.47b / Revenue TTM 74.35b)
Net Margin = 16.61% (Net Income TTM 12.35b / Revenue TTM 74.35b)
Gross Margin = 47.72% ((Revenue TTM 74.35b - Cost of Revenue TTM 38.87b) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 47.78% (prev 47.59%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 2.26 (Enterprise Value 514.40b / Total Assets 227.89b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 1.52% (Interest Expense 1.08b / Debt 70.71b)
Taxrate = 26.92% (2.23b / 8.28b)
NOPAT = 25.16b (EBIT 34.43b * (1 - 26.92%))
Current Ratio = 0.82 (Total Current Assets 28.08b / Total Current Liabilities 34.29b)
Debt / Equity = 0.89 (Debt 70.71b / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 79.52b)
Debt / EBITDA = 1.45 (Net Debt 61.75b / EBITDA 42.71b)
Debt / FCF = 3.75 (Net Debt 61.75b / FCF TTM 16.47b)
Total Stockholder Equity = 70.20b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 5.42% (Net Income 12.35b / Total Assets 227.89b)
RoE = 17.59% (Net Income TTM 12.35b / Total Stockholder Equity 70.20b)
RoCE = 35.92% (EBIT 34.43b / Capital Employed (Equity 70.20b + L.T.Debt 25.64b))
RoIC = 26.37% (NOPAT 25.16b / Invested Capital 95.41b)
WACC = 7.51% (E(455.34b)/V(526.06b) * Re(8.50%) + D(70.71b)/V(526.06b) * Rd(1.52%) * (1-Tc(0.27)))
Discount Rate = 8.50% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: -100.0 | Cagr: -0.56%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 73.26% ; FCFE base≈20.37b ; Y1≈16.75b ; Y5≈12.01b
Fair Price DCF = 54.89 (DCF Value 204.25b / Shares Outstanding 3.72b; 5y FCF grow -21.40% → 3.0% )
EPS Correlation: -50.05 | EPS CAGR: -9.85% | SUE: 1.50 | # QB: 1
Revenue Correlation: -45.79 | Revenue CAGR: -8.72% | SUE: -0.70 | # QB: 0
Additional Sources for PBR Stock
Tweets: X | Stocktwits
Fund Manager Positions: Dataroma | Stockcircle