(PD) Pagerduty - Overview
Stock: Incident Management, AIOps, Automation, Customer Service, AI
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 48.6% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -5.20% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | -1.40 |
| Alpha | -78.22 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 1.387 |
| Beta Downside | 1.284 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 77.42% |
| CAGR/Max DD | -0.45 |
Description: PD Pagerduty January 15, 2026
PagerDuty (NYSE:PD) operates a digital-operations management platform that ingests signals from virtually any software-enabled system, applies machine learning to correlate and predict incidents, and automates response workflows. Core modules include real-time Incident Management, AIOps-driven event correlation, workflow automation, Customer Service Operations, and AI-powered next-best-action recommendations.
In FY 2023 the company reported revenue of roughly $1.2 billion, up about 23 % year-over-year, and grew its annual recurring revenue (ARR) to just over $1.5 billion with net dollar-based churn hovering near 3 %. These metrics suggest strong adoption among its target verticals-software & technology, telecom, retail, travel, media, and financial services-while the broader SaaS-enabled digital-operations market is estimated at $30 billion and expanding at ~20 % CAGR.
Key sector drivers include accelerated cloud migration, the rise of Site Reliability Engineering (SRE) practices, and increasing enterprise demand for automated incident response to reduce downtime costs. For a deeper, data-driven view of PagerDuty’s valuation dynamics, a quick look at ValueRay’s analyst dashboard can help you surface the most material risk and upside factors.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 3.0
| Net Income: 152.2m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.11 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.31 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 74.09% < 20% (prev 66.10%; Δ 7.99% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 120.8m > Net Income 152.2m |
| Net Debt (84.3m) to EBITDA (2.45m): 34.38 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 2.30 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (94.2m) vs 12m ago 1.76% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 84.36% > 18% (prev 0.81%; Δ 8355 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 51.64% > 50% (prev 52.75%; Δ -1.10% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: -0.29 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 2.45m / Interest Expense TTM 9.12m) |
Altman Z'' 0.27
| A: 0.35 (Total Current Assets 640.5m - Total Current Liabilities 278.1m) / Total Assets 1.03b |
| B: -0.42 (Retained Earnings -431.2m / Total Assets 1.03b) |
| C: -0.00 (EBIT TTM -2.63m / Avg Total Assets 947.3m) |
| D: -0.63 (Book Value of Equity -431.4m / Total Liabilities 688.4m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 0.27 = B |
Beneish M -2.75
| DSRI: 0.98 (Receivables 78.9m/75.2m, Revenue 489.2m/457.2m) |
| GMI: 0.96 (GM 84.36% / 81.33%) |
| AQI: 1.41 (AQ_t 0.34 / AQ_t-1 0.24) |
| SGI: 1.07 (Revenue 489.2m / 457.2m) |
| TATA: 0.03 (NI 152.2m - CFO 120.8m) / TA 1.03b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -2.75 (Cap -4..+1) = A |
What is the price of PD shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -24.15%, over one month by -35.68%, over three months by -46.83% and over the past year by -57.75%.
Is PD a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 4
- Buy: 1
- Hold: 6
- Sell: 2
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PD price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 16.1 | 100.7% |
| Analysts Target Price | 16.1 | 100.7% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 5.3 | -33.8% |
PD Fundamental Data Overview February 04, 2026
P/E Forward = 9.2593
P/S = 1.9785
P/B = 3.0354
Revenue TTM = 489.2m USD
EBIT TTM = -2.63m USD
EBITDA TTM = 2.45m USD
Long Term Debt = 395.1m USD (from longTermDebt, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 4.10m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 408.5m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = 84.3m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 1.10b USD (967.9m + Debt 408.5m - CCE 277.9m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = -0.29 (Ebit TTM -2.63m / Interest Expense TTM 9.12m)
EV/FCF = 9.57x (Enterprise Value 1.10b / FCF TTM 114.7m)
FCF Yield = 10.44% (FCF TTM 114.7m / Enterprise Value 1.10b)
FCF Margin = 23.45% (FCF TTM 114.7m / Revenue TTM 489.2m)
Net Margin = 31.12% (Net Income TTM 152.2m / Revenue TTM 489.2m)
Gross Margin = 84.36% ((Revenue TTM 489.2m - Cost of Revenue TTM 76.5m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 85.26% (prev 84.60%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 1.07 (Enterprise Value 1.10b / Total Assets 1.03b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.51% (Interest Expense 2.10m / Debt 408.5m)
Taxrate = 21.0% (US default 21%)
NOPAT = -2.07m (EBIT -2.63m * (1 - 21.00%)) [loss with tax shield]
Current Ratio = 2.30 (Total Current Assets 640.5m / Total Current Liabilities 278.1m)
Debt / Equity = 1.27 (Debt 408.5m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 320.5m)
Debt / EBITDA = 34.38 (Net Debt 84.3m / EBITDA 2.45m)
Debt / FCF = 0.73 (Net Debt 84.3m / FCF TTM 114.7m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 194.2m (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 16.07% (Net Income 152.2m / Total Assets 1.03b)
RoE = 78.40% (Net Income TTM 152.2m / Total Stockholder Equity 194.2m)
RoCE = -0.45% (EBIT -2.63m / Capital Employed (Equity 194.2m + L.T.Debt 395.1m))
RoIC = -0.34% (negative operating profit) (NOPAT -2.07m / Invested Capital 617.1m)
WACC = 7.88% (E(967.9m)/V(1.38b) * Re(11.03%) + D(408.5m)/V(1.38b) * Rd(0.51%) * (1-Tc(0.21)))
Discount Rate = 11.03% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.56%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 81.66% ; FCFF base≈108.6m ; Y1≈134.0m ; Y5≈228.2m
Fair Price DCF = 42.17 (EV 3.95b - Net Debt 84.3m = Equity 3.87b / Shares 91.8m; r=7.88% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 92.26 | EPS CAGR: 123.7% | SUE: 3.76 | # QB: 7
Revenue Correlation: 95.25 | Revenue CAGR: 13.09% | SUE: -0.29 | # QB: 0
EPS next Quarter (2026-04-30): EPS=0.28 | Chg30d=-0.001 | Revisions Net=+8 | Analysts=8
EPS next Year (2027-01-31): EPS=1.19 | Chg30d=-0.014 | Revisions Net=-1 | Growth EPS=+6.2% | Growth Revenue=+3.3%