(PEN) Penumbra - Overview
Stock: Thrombectomy, Embolization, Access, Neurosurgical, Coils
EPS (Earnings per Share)
Revenue
| Risk 5d forecast | |
|---|---|
| Volatility | 42.4% |
| Relative Tail Risk | -16.0% |
| Reward TTM | |
|---|---|
| Sharpe Ratio | 0.75 |
| Alpha | 16.39 |
| Character TTM | |
|---|---|
| Beta | 0.671 |
| Beta Downside | 0.564 |
| Drawdowns 3y | |
|---|---|
| Max DD | 52.44% |
| CAGR/Max DD | 0.18 |
Description: PEN Penumbra January 06, 2026
Penumbra, Inc. (NYSE:PEN) designs, develops, manufactures, and markets a broad suite of minimally invasive medical devices for neurovascular and peripheral interventions, selling primarily through a direct sales force and a network of distributors.
Its product lineup includes the Indigo aspiration system, Lightning Flash and Lightning Bolt mechanical thrombectomy devices, a range of guide and delivery catheters (Neuron, BMX, MIDWAY, etc.), the Penumbra Engine integrated thrombectomy platform, and neuro-embolization coils (Coil 400, SMART COIL, SwiftPAC). Peripheral embolization tools such as the Ruby Coil System and the POD occlusion device round out the portfolio, complemented by neurosurgical tools like the Artemis Neuro Evacuation Device.
Recent financial data show FY 2023 revenue of approximately $1.22 billion, up 12 % year-over-year, with an operating margin of 15 % and free cash flow generation of $180 million, reflecting strong demand for its high-margin consumables. The company secured FDA clearance for an upgraded Indigo System in Q1 2024 and announced a strategic partnership to expand distribution in China, a market projected to grow 8 % annually for neuro-interventional devices.
Key sector drivers include an aging U.S. population, rising incidence of ischemic stroke and peripheral artery disease, and a broader shift toward cost-effective, catheter-based therapies that reduce hospital stays-trends that historically boost demand for Penumbra’s product categories.
For a deeper quantitative view, consult ValueRay’s detailed valuation model to assess PEN’s upside potential.
Piotroski VR‑10 (Strict, 0-10) 6.0
| Net Income: 164.0m TTM > 0 and > 6% of Revenue |
| FCF/TA: 0.09 > 0.02 and ΔFCF/TA -0.32 > 1.0 |
| NWC/Revenue: 72.87% < 20% (prev 63.46%; Δ 9.41% < -1%) |
| CFO/TA 0.12 > 3% & CFO 203.3m > Net Income 164.0m |
| Net Debt (-104.0m) to EBITDA (204.5m): -0.51 < 3 |
| Current Ratio: 6.73 > 1.5 & < 3 |
| Outstanding Shares: last quarter (39.3m) vs 12m ago 0.32% < -2% |
| Gross Margin: 66.80% > 18% (prev 0.63%; Δ 6618 % > 0.5%) |
| Asset Turnover: 82.75% > 50% (prev 78.68%; Δ 4.07% > 0%) |
| Interest Coverage Ratio: 142.2 > 6 (EBITDA TTM 204.5m / Interest Expense TTM 1.32m) |
Altman Z'' 5.32
| A: 0.56 (Total Current Assets 1.14b - Total Current Liabilities 169.6m) / Total Assets 1.74b |
| B: 0.11 (Retained Earnings 190.3m / Total Assets 1.74b) |
| C: 0.12 (EBIT TTM 187.1m / Avg Total Assets 1.61b) |
| D: 0.50 (Book Value of Equity 193.5m / Total Liabilities 385.7m) |
| Altman-Z'' Score: 5.32 = AAA |
Beneish M -3.18
| DSRI: 0.91 (Receivables 183.4m/176.1m, Revenue 1.33b/1.16b) |
| GMI: 0.94 (GM 66.80% / 62.84%) |
| AQI: 0.82 (AQ_t 0.18 / AQ_t-1 0.21) |
| SGI: 1.15 (Revenue 1.33b / 1.16b) |
| TATA: -0.02 (NI 164.0m - CFO 203.3m) / TA 1.74b) |
| Beneish M-Score: -3.18 (Cap -4..+1) = AA |
What is the price of PEN shares?
Over the past week, the price has changed by -4.79%, over one month by +7.59%, over three months by +28.88% and over the past year by +30.41%.
Is PEN a buy, sell or hold?
- StrongBuy: 12
- Buy: 2
- Hold: 4
- Sell: 0
- StrongSell: 0
What are the forecasts/targets for the PEN price?
| Issuer | Target | Up/Down from current |
|---|---|---|
| Wallstreet Target Price | 348.5 | 2.2% |
| Analysts Target Price | 348.5 | 2.2% |
| ValueRay Target Price | 347.9 | 2% |
PEN Fundamental Data Overview January 31, 2026
P/E Forward = 69.4444
P/S = 10.5202
P/B = 10.3077
P/EG = 0.8193
Revenue TTM = 1.33b USD
EBIT TTM = 187.1m USD
EBITDA TTM = 204.5m USD
Long Term Debt = 21.2m USD (from longTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Short Term Debt = 15.5m USD (from shortTermDebt, last quarter)
Debt = 217.0m USD (from shortLongTermDebtTotal, last quarter)
Net Debt = -104.0m USD (from netDebt column, last quarter)
Enterprise Value = 13.93b USD (14.03b + Debt 217.0m - CCE 321.0m)
Interest Coverage Ratio = 142.2 (Ebit TTM 187.1m / Interest Expense TTM 1.32m)
EV/FCF = 91.27x (Enterprise Value 13.93b / FCF TTM 152.6m)
FCF Yield = 1.10% (FCF TTM 152.6m / Enterprise Value 13.93b)
FCF Margin = 11.44% (FCF TTM 152.6m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Net Margin = 12.30% (Net Income TTM 164.0m / Revenue TTM 1.33b)
Gross Margin = 66.80% ((Revenue TTM 1.33b - Cost of Revenue TTM 442.8m) / Revenue TTM)
Gross Margin QoQ = 67.78% (prev 65.99%)
Tobins Q-Ratio = 7.99 (Enterprise Value 13.93b / Total Assets 1.74b)
Interest Expense / Debt = 0.16% (Interest Expense 338.0k / Debt 217.0m)
Taxrate = 12.37% (6.47m / 52.3m)
NOPAT = 164.0m (EBIT 187.1m * (1 - 12.37%))
Current Ratio = 6.73 (Total Current Assets 1.14b / Total Current Liabilities 169.6m)
Debt / Equity = 0.16 (Debt 217.0m / totalStockholderEquity, last quarter 1.36b)
Debt / EBITDA = -0.51 (Net Debt -104.0m / EBITDA 204.5m)
Debt / FCF = -0.68 (Net Debt -104.0m / FCF TTM 152.6m)
Total Stockholder Equity = 1.25b (last 4 quarters mean from totalStockholderEquity)
RoA = 10.18% (Net Income 164.0m / Total Assets 1.74b)
RoE = 13.08% (Net Income TTM 164.0m / Total Stockholder Equity 1.25b)
RoCE = 14.67% (EBIT 187.1m / Capital Employed (Equity 1.25b + L.T.Debt 21.2m))
RoIC = 13.08% (NOPAT 164.0m / Invested Capital 1.25b)
WACC = 8.26% (E(14.03b)/V(14.25b) * Re(8.39%) + D(217.0m)/V(14.25b) * Rd(0.16%) * (1-Tc(0.12)))
Discount Rate = 8.39% (= CAPM, Blume Beta Adj.)
Shares Correlation 3-Years: 33.33 | Cagr: 0.01%
[DCF Debug] Terminal Value 80.40% ; FCFF base≈145.2m ; Y1≈179.2m ; Y5≈305.1m
Fair Price DCF = 127.4 (EV 4.89b - Net Debt -104.0m = Equity 5.00b / Shares 39.2m; r=8.26% [WACC]; 5y FCF grow 25.0% → 2.90% )
EPS Correlation: 65.58 | EPS CAGR: 4.68% | SUE: -4.0 | # QB: 0
Revenue Correlation: 98.74 | Revenue CAGR: 15.89% | SUE: 2.97 | # QB: 4
EPS next Quarter (2026-03-31): EPS=1.08 | Chg30d=-0.005 | Revisions Net=-2 | Analysts=15
EPS next Year (2026-12-31): EPS=5.05 | Chg30d=+0.028 | Revisions Net=+4 | Growth EPS=+33.4% | Growth Revenue=+14.3%